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Nevermore

Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
jli88 said:
Japan's decline also is a result of demographics. The older generation who was comfortable in analog systems never used, or realized the importance of digital systems, computation, internet etc. They were not savvy enough. Japan was the originator of the idea of "robots/automation being the solution for demographic challenge." It didn't work out for them.
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The lack of innovation stems from misguided policies by those in power coupled with conservative elders controlling businesses. The blame lies squarely with their government's foolish policies. Demographic shifts never automatically translate into changes in innovation capacity. Even a very young nation cannot foster innovation if its government is incompetent and its people poorly educated—just look at Africa. Had Japan chosen in 1995 to vigorously encourage youth innovation in emerging industries while phasing out zombie enterprises, this outcome would have been avoided.
 
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MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
jli88 said:
Japan's decline also is a result of demographics. The older generation who was comfortable in analog systems never used, or realized the importance of digital systems, computation, internet etc. They were not savvy enough. Japan was the originator of the idea of "robots/automation being the solution for demographic challenge." It didn't work out for them.
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The plaza accords would like to have a word with you



jli88 said:
I agree a shrinking population can support increasing consumption, but you need a major labor friendly push for that. Current Chinese thinking is too conservative, and has leaned on wage and labor suppression rather than enabling higher wages, implementing labor laws etc.
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Hmmm interesting comment considering that China has been steadily increasing minimum wage. How much higher do you want it to go in one year ?
You're familiar with Chinese labour laws? Which laws do you want China to enable?
 
T

tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
jli88 said:
My point is that you can't rely on the other side underperforming by 3x (the current ratio of Indian to Chinese births) as your national policy.




Japan's decline also is a result of demographics. The older generation who was comfortable in analog systems never used, or realized the importance of digital systems, computation, internet etc. They were not savvy enough. Japan was the originator of the idea of "robots/automation being the solution for demographic challenge." It didn't work out for them.

I agree a shrinking population can support increasing consumption, but you need a major labor friendly push for that. Current Chinese thinking is too conservative, and has leaned on wage and labor suppression rather than enabling higher wages, implementing labor laws etc.

Also, regarding international markets, China (with a war coming over taiwan) will definitely lose most of the international markets, definitely the West.



All valid criticisms.

But my point is that you can't rely on the other side underperforming by 3x (the current ratio of Indian to Chinese births) as your national policy. India may get its act together, higher wealth may lead to people demanding cleanliness, who knows.




Having a racist debasement attitude towards India is different from seeing India as a threat.

India is a definite potential threat to China. This is also the reason why it's unwise for China to lose more people when it is facing against the combined West + India + other countries like Phillipines, Vietnam, Mongolia etc.
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Nigeria has a pretty high birth rate probably one of the highest in the world, with all the respect to Nigerians, do see Nigeria building the next ASML or an increase in the young population are going to make the country structural problems worse.

Then there is the Issue that is pretty clear that AI is going be pretty job disruptive, LLMs or not, the technology is creeping towards replacing billions of jobs. For nations, solving their structural problems is becoming more critical than ever, before is too late.
 
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Africablack

Junior Member
Registered Member
tokenanalyst said:
Nigeria has a pretty high birth rate probably one of the highest in the world, with all the respect to Nigerians, do see Nigeria building the next ASML or an increase in the young population are going to make the country structural problems worse.

Then there is the Issue that is pretty clear that AI is going be pretty job disruptive, LLMs or not, the technology is creeping towards replacing billions of jobs. For nations, solving their structural problems is becoming more critical than ever, before is too late.
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It's funny because westerners were saying the same thing about the Chinese. I've learned to never say never. Nigeria doesn't need to build the next ASML, it just needs to transition to a productive economy and it can take it from there.

Nigeria is not a country, it's a colonial contraption that has morphed into an unworkable enterprise. The north is a completely different place from the south in values, culture, and orientation. If the south got its crap together then it can do great things.
 
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tokenanalyst

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Africablack said:
It's funny because westerners were saying the same thing about the Chinese. I've learned to never say never. Nigeria doesn't need to build the next ASML, it just needs to transition to a productive economy and it can take it from there.

Nigeria is not a country, it's a colonial contraption that has morphed into an unworkable enterprise. The north is a completely different place from the south in values, culture, and orientation. If the south got its crap together then it can do great things.
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No disrespect to Nigerians, I know there are a lot of good people there. But there are structural problems that a high birth rate is not going solve.
In fact when Nigeria develop in the future and the population becomes more urban and educated, especially women, the birth rates are going to collapse like a stone
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Africablack said:
It's funny because westerners were saying the same thing about the Chinese. I've learned to never say never. Nigeria doesn't need to build the next ASML, it just needs to transition to a productive economy and it can take it from there.

Nigeria is not a country, it's a colonial contraption that has morphed into an unworkable enterprise. The north is a completely different place from the south in values, culture, and orientation. If the south got its crap together then it can do great things.
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Not until you get rid of the compradors and clean up the corruptions.
 
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