I've been saying it for a while now, deflation by itself is inconsequential. What matters is what the deflation signifies. Japan's problem wasn't deflation, it was a lack of investment. Money gets pumped into the economy and immediately gets converted into foreign currencies to buy foreign debt for the carry trade because no one wants to invest in Japan. That's their problem. They have inflation now and their economy still sucks because deflation was not the cause of their malaise but merely a symptom. Inflation from rising input costs will not make anyone more willing to invest in Japanese industries.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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I've been saying it for a while now, deflation by itself is inconsequential. What matters is what the deflation signifies. Japan's problem wasn't deflation, it was a lack of investment. Money gets pumped into the economy and immediately gets converted into foreign currencies to buy foreign debt for the carry trade because no one wants to invest in Japan. That's their problem. They have inflation now and their economy still sucks because deflation was not the cause of their malaise but merely a symptom. Inflation from rising input costs will not make anyone more willing to invest in Japanese industries.
IMO many people are missing China's grand strategy. If people understand where Xi is coming from, all the moves China has made in the past few years would make sense.
1) It starts with China's assessment that the West is declining and China is rising. To "win", China just has to maintain the current trajectory and outlast the West.
2) The current trajectory will inevitably cause some hardship in the West and lead to push back. As such, China needs to be prepared for a full-scale, full-spectrum (financial, industrial, military, informational, everything) conflict against the entire West (that's the US and all its allies). This is not so that it has to fight and win one, but to prevent a full scale conflict in the first place. Think of it like a MAD.
3) To accomplish this, China has worked to ensure full-spectrum resilience. RMB internationalization, CIPS, popping RE bubble, BRI, tech indigenization, preventing outsourcing of "older" industries, military/nuclear build out, GFW, etc. all needs to be looked at in this lens rather than the narrow lens of economic or territorial gains.
4) The key to victory is point number 1, i.e. maintaining the current trajectory. If an actual full-scale conflict breaks out, victory is no longer assured and there's a high likelihood of there being no victors at all. As such, the response to all provocations in general is to demonstrate the ability for MAD and nudge all parties involved to maintain the status quo.
Use these points to guide your analyses and everything will make more sense. Why doesn't China just nip the European manufacturing right now? Because it's well on track to nip itself. They're not gonna find an alternative to Nexperia China in weeks or months or in all likelihood ever before the European auto industry go bust from a general lack of competitiveness. China just needs to demonstrate that it can cause the destruction now, and let the Europeans pressure each other so the day of their destruction can come later rather than sooner. Sowing disunity is more important than causing short term destruction. One leads to a hastening of the current trends which favor China, the other can lead to a full scale conflict for which history has proven there are always many unknowns.
I'm pretty sure that Nexperia's chips could be substituted by firms like STM and Infineon, but this would be a very painful and laborious process. The Nexperia fiasco might cause a severe recession if China wanted to apply the pain, but it's not an existential pain. Europe, US, and Asia can find alternatives.
Like I said, this is the sort of thing that's best kept in a backpocket to compound on top of other sanctions if necessary.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
It says a lot that the West didn't decouple from China like they threatened. Number one is because they couldn't. Again the West thinks they can go back in time and think they'll change things to their favor. The number one reason why they went to China in the first place is because it was the best alternative. If they didn't go with China a lot of results would have changed for the worse. You think the US economy would have grown as much as it did if they didn't outsource to China exploiting cheap labor so they could have as much money they made? You think Apple would have become the giant it's known for today if they were denied from access to China to lessen the costs and make money from? What would've happened instead is the challenges it's facing today would've happened earlier.
The West "can" decouple from China.
1. If it does it abruptly, it'll be very painful, probably worse than 2008 Great Recession painful. Which means politicians won't allow it. Nobody wants to take the blame.
2. It can do it slowly and methodically. The West lacks the organization do so. Technically this is already what the West is trying to do, and you can see how pitiful our attempts have been so far. Pundits keep hyping up MP materials, ignoring that they cannot procure or produce all the REEs required for a modern economy.
3. It can accept that it won't be able to do it and stop seeking "strategic competition" with China, but this is unacceptable to the West who think themselves as superior.
So I guess waht I'm saying is yeah, they "can't".
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
The right-wing is going apeshit over Hasan Piker being in China. They don't see him as an American and believe he's a pro-ISIS terrorist but they don't like him praising China over the US. Why do they care? That's how much control freedom-loving Republicans demand from people they don't like. And get this... the right-wing is bragging that Hasan mentions he's jealous over Asmongold's notoriety over him in China. Why would they care to brag over having popularity from communists? That's how contradictory they are.
I get now why they hate Hasan Piker. Watching some of his videos in China, you can tell Hasan lives a lifestyle they want for themselves especially coming across as guys living in their mother's basement. I was watching one of their channels this morning and they literally have other right-wing types from other channels where the men use female anime avatars to hide behind. What would Freud say about that? And these are the guys that were worried they were going to be next after Charlie Kirk was assassinated by who did the claim was behind it...?
Hasan Piker knows what he's doing. He has videos of himself praising China and him holding Mao's little red book... The right is exploding with anger over someone they see as not as one of them doing things they don't like. And he 's not just traveling by himself. He has other apparently popular American streamers with him. I can see why they feel alone isolated and why they want to take it out on Hasan.
I get now why they hate Hasan Piker. Watching some of his videos in China, you can tell Hasan lives a lifestyle they want for themselves especially coming across as guys living in their mother's basement. I was watching one of their channels this morning and they literally have other right-wing types from other channels where the men use female anime avatars to hide behind. What would Freud say about that? And these are the guys that were worried they were going to be next after Charlie Kirk was assassinated by who did the claim was behind it...?
Hasan Piker knows what he's doing. He has videos of himself praising China and him holding Mao's little red book... The right is exploding with anger over someone they see as not as one of them doing things they don't like. And he 's not just traveling by himself. He has other apparently popular American streamers with him. I can see why they feel alone isolated and why they want to take it out on Hasan.
Looks like they're in denial about Wingtech's new fab lol
Its also pretty funny they're complaing Wingtech setup new customer payment accounts for shipments, its like someone broke into a house, got kicked out by the owner with a shotgun, then complain the owner owes him money he failed to steal.
European culture really doesnt deserve to survive.
I notice the Anti-China voices have some how taken the feed of twitter. Its been days of non-stop "bridge" and the Chinese Ambassador comment about Japan. I guess NED or equivalent budget got funded again.
This Chinese guy in ICE detention was found to have "suicide" by hanging with his hand and legs tied up. I'm no expert, but that seems more like murder
Trump said he is open to inviting China to the G7 as a guest nation. China should jump at this chance to extract something from these lemmings. From France, China needs to secure more aircraft engines for its C9i9 planes.