Miscellaneous News

vincent said:

Jesus, have you paid attention to what’s happening in the world? US government has been trying to increase Patriot/THAAD/Tomahawk/AIM-120D/etc missiles productions for awhile now. European countries have agreed to increase their military budgets to 5% of GDP. Why the hell China would allow them to produce high tech weapons? The very weapons that are very likely to be used on China?

China has already banned quite a few rare earth elements, the latest move simply expand to more. There isn’t likely to be stockpiling because no sane businessman like to keep a huge inventory.

The rare earth card is a one-time-use card. It is not a leverage. Continuous supply for civilian use is.

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You talk about military weapons for an imminent war, and then talk about how stock piling isn't sane business practice. These contradict each other.

The military doesn't care about "sane business practice" in a scenario of imminent (next few years) war. They will stock pile what they need. They will accelerate reopening commercially intractable refineries. They will do whatever it takes to wrest rare earths from their allies' supply chains. Industry won't do this, but the military will.

Giving the US a grace period of a month to order as much of the newly restricted rare earths as it wants, doesn't make sense if it's about delaying US military action. We can agree to disagree about this though, and just see what happens next.

Eventine said:

You talk about military weapons for an imminent war, and then talk about how stock piling isn't sane business practice. These contradict each other.

The military doesn't care about "sane business practice" in a scenario of imminent (next few years) war. They will stock pile what they need. They will accelerate reopening commercially intractable refineries. They will do whatever it takes to wrest rare earths from their allies' supply chains. Industry won't do this, but the military will.

Giving the US a grace period of a month to order as much of the newly restricted rare earths as it wants, doesn't make sense if it's about delaying US military action. We can agree to disagree about this though, and just see what happens next.

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I was talking about the rare earth producers, They can’t sell more even if they want to.

In case you don’t know, China has all the refining technologies for heavy rare earth elements.

I think you overestimate Western countries’ ability to build anything. This is the state of the collapsed bridge in Baltimore, 18 months later:

Eventine said:

Eh, still think it's just a negotiation tactic. Both sides are posturing for better position to force a compromise, probably because the talks are not going well behind the scenes due to neither side wanting to give ground, so they're back to posturing.

What's important is that this is between the US and China. It doesn't make sense for China to declare a trade war on the world over rare earths. China cannot win that kind of war.

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It's not a trade war on the world; China can choose whomever to approve exports to and whomever to deny them to. You fell for Trump's lies saying it's against the world because he's a chicken shit looking for backup against a China he's already exhausted all his tricks on.

And just because it starts a month later doesn't mean the US is able to stockpile now. They can't even get enough for normal operations as things are. Ford is already shutting down plants because of rare earth shortages. American negotiators have been trying for weeks to get China to stop restricting rare earth flows to the US. The official language goes into effect 1 month later. It's been practiced against the US for some time already. This policy is just showing America what they've been up against the whole time.

vincent said:

I was talking about the rare earth producers, They can’t sell more even if they want to.

In case you don’t know, China has all the refining technologies for heavy rare earth elements.

I think you overestimate Western countries’ ability to build anything. This is the state of the collapsed bridge in Baltimore, 18 months later:

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Trump will certainly try to build it in the US. But I think there's a far bigger chance other countries will fill the vacuum. Any way, if China goes through with this and does not compromise, then it's going to be a rough few years in global trade.

vincent said:

I was talking about the rare earth producers, They can’t sell more even if they want to.

In case you don’t know, China has all the refining technologies for heavy rare earth elements.

I think you overestimate Western countries’ ability to build anything. This is the state of the collapsed bridge in Baltimore, 18 months later:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

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I think a much better example was US invoking Defense Production Act to make simple masks in 2020 and failed even at that.
The fact that Americans collectively memory holed something that happened only 5 years ago speaks volumes too.

tamsen_ikard said:

There is absolutely nothing the west can do now that China will fear. They passed the hardle that was the trade war starting in 2018. Those were the dark times. China went through it and made itself resilient. Now they are ready to hit back hard.

US has two options, surrender and humiliate itself. Or double down and get destroyed in the process.

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Or what could possibly happen in the next few days. Announce that all with China is settled for some vague agreements and score a nice payday for everyone who bought the dip.

TPenglake said:

Or what could possibly happen in the next few days. Announce that all with China is settled for some vague agreements and score a nice payday for everyone who bought the dip.

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China is not removing its export control without extreme concessions from US. The only thing that will maybe satisfy China is completely removal of all export control on China across all sectors. I also expect China demanding not just opposing Taiwan independence, but full blown acceptance that yes Taiwan is part of China full stop and complete stop on all arms exports to Taiwan.

Racek49 said:

Dear friend, I was even involved in such a conflict as a little boy. My parents took me to a ceremonial sailing of a Chinese warship, organized for representatives of friendly countries and their families, sometime in 1955 or 1956, I don't remember. On the high seas, suddenly Taiwanese planes started circling above the ship and the captain sent us below deck and turned back to port. Maybe somewhere in the estate I could find a photo so we could determine what ship it was... maybe. It's been a long time. But I remember many things and thanks to you I am also restoring my memories.

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This shows 2 things.

1. The necessity of liberating Taiwan from an extremely aggressive and irrational regime.

2. It didn't matter that Taiwan acted illegally and aggressively. Not a single NATO member nor Warsaw Pact member invoked collective defense even though they had the right to. The merchants simply left and didn't risk it. Conflict alone chokes trade.

tamsen_ikard said:

China is not removing its export control without extreme concessions from US. The only thing that will maybe satisfy China is completely removal of all export control on China across all sectors. I also expect China demanding not just opposing Taiwan independence, but full blown acceptance that yes Taiwan is part of China full stop and complete stop on all arms exports to Taiwan.

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Nah, nothing there is worth it.

American export controls only help China's indigenization drive. Export controls are a noose if your people are stupid and unable to innovate like Trump's America but they're a catalyst if your people are smart like in China.

Concessions on Taiwan? LOL That's only words that can change anytime. The Taiwan issue will be resolved when American power is displaced in Asia; it will resolve itself.

America has nothing to offer for this; if China played this card then it's time to drive the stake into the vampire's heart. This will cause everything in America to hit huge roadblocks and I agree that amongst all the countries in the world that America can buy out, they will eventually figure out a solution to China's rare earths riddle, but the point is that China's technology is in such a state that by the time they do, China will already be far ahead in everything and by then, they can only accept that the West can no longer catch up. Pax Sinica is here. It's the end game.

tamsen_ikard said:

China is not removing its export control without extreme concessions from US. The only thing that will maybe satisfy China is completely removal of all export control on China across all sectors. I also expect China demanding not just opposing Taiwan independence, but full blown acceptance that yes Taiwan is part of China full stop and complete stop on all arms exports to Taiwan.

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The US marines in Taiwan should be kicked out right now.