Miscellaneous News

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
China is not removing its export control without extreme concessions from US. The only thing that will maybe satisfy China is completely removal of all export control on China across all sectors. I also expect China demanding not just opposing Taiwan independence, but full blown acceptance that yes Taiwan is part of China full stop and complete stop on all arms exports to Taiwan.

The US marines in Taiwan should be kicked out right now.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
America has nothing to offer for this; if China played this card then it's time to drive the stake into the vampire's heart.

Agree, they got nothing to offer. There is only one thing I can think for that China would accept.

That is stop the hostility. In rhetoric and in action. But, they cannot help themselves.

Obama was the one who started it off with some restrictions on high end semi-conductor chips and was the architect of the TPP whose sole intention was to box in China economically.

That did not work, with Chinese computing industry still able to advance, and the TTP died of natural causes.

Trump 1.0 had a trade war and tech war which centered around Hauwei. They egged on Taiwan too.

That did not work, as Chinese trade increased, the RCEP came into being, and Huawei is still here, built the 5G in China and shit. PLAAF and PLAN do regular combat patrols around Taiwan now, changing the status quo.

Biden people increased the sanctions and tech war. One highlight was the 100% tariff on EVs.

That did not work, as Chinese economy kept growing meeting the targets set by the government which meant the Chinese grew a lot faster than the US economy, Huawei makes a comeback in phones with a 7nm chip, and Chinese EVs going global nowadays.

Trump 2.0 we had more sanctions and Liberation Day trade war.

That did not work as Huawei strong as ever, DeepSeek suddenly appeared, and all the other tech like Green Energy, the NEVs, and the robotics keep on going. Also Chinese trade surplus at $1 trillion going for two straight years, unprecedented. Meanwhile in the US, there is a tech spending boom in data centers, but a general malaise in the rest of the US economy. The Chinese economy forecast to grow at 4.8% by the World Bank this year, compared to 0.7% for the US economy. That is not the US winning, that is losing.

Like the communist said, China and the United States should be friends, but those turkeys in Washington cannot help themselves.

So they are getting what they wanted, conflict, as they were asking for it.

It is hard to say. Sooner or later, a day like this would come, what the Chinese did with the rare earths again.

I claim it is hard to say, because of Russia and Gaza, now there is a third front of economic war with China? I doubt the United States is that good a juggling.

So, there could be a chance the hostility could stop. But I doubt it. With Trump anything is possible. He suppressed the Epstein files, and Trump actually shut down the FBI investigation into his own assassination attempt, kind of weird and funny.

:D
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Agree, they got nothing to offer. There is only one thing I can think for that China would accept.

That is stop the hostility. In rhetoric and in action. But, they cannot help themselves.

Obama was the one who started it off with some restrictions on high end semi-conductor chips and was the architect of the TPP whose sole intention was to box in China economically.

That did not work, with Chinese computing industry still able to advance, and the TTP died of natural causes.

Trump 1.0 had a trade war and tech war which centered around Hauwei. They egged on Taiwan too.

That did not work, as Chinese trade increased, the RCEP came into being, and Huawei is still here, built the 5G in China and shit. PLAAF and PLAN do regular combat patrols around Taiwan now, changing the status quo.

Biden people increased the sanctions and tech war. One highlight was the 100% tariff on EVs.

That did not work, as Chinese economy kept growing meeting the targets set by the government which meant the Chinese grew a lot faster than the US economy, Huawei makes a comeback in phones with a 7nm chip, and Chinese EVs going global nowadays.

Trump 2.0 we had more sanctions and Liberation Day trade war.

That did not work as Huawei strong as ever, DeepSeek suddenly appeared, and all the other tech like Green Energy, the NEVs, and the robotics keep on going. Also Chinese trade surplus at $1 trillion going for two straight years, unprecedented. Meanwhile in the US, there is a tech spending boom in data centers, but a general malaise in the rest of the US economy. The Chinese economy forecast to grow at 4.8% by the World Bank this year, compared to 0.7% for the US economy. That is not the US winning, that is losing.

Like the communist said, China and the United States should be friends, but those turkeys in Washington cannot help themselves.

So they are getting what they wanted, conflict, as they were asking for it.

It is hard to say. Sooner or later, a day like this would come, what the Chinese did with the rare earths again.

I claim it is hard to say, because of Russia and Gaza, now there is a third front of economic war with China? I doubt the United States is that good a juggling.

So, there could be a chance the hostility could stop. But I doubt it. With Trump anything is possible. He suppressed the Epstein files, and Trump actually shut down the FBI investigation into his own assassination attempt, kind of weird and funny.

:D
"Stop the hostility" doesn't mean anything. It's just like, "Denounce Taiwanese independence." It's completely reversible at anytime and the actions aren't even defined. This is another thing that is completely worthless. Shit, according to Trump, there are no hostilities; as a matter of fact, he says the relationship with China has been going swimmingly for the last 6 months! LOL To him, that means no change! But when the course of China's plan plays out and American global dominance is supplanted by Chinese power, everything China wants comes to China naturally. Therefore, the US truly has nothing left to offer; it's like one of those movies where the hero finally holds the gun to the villain's head and the villain offers him a grovelling apology, money, leadership in his gang, women, anything he wants. The hero responds with cold vengeance, "I just want you to die," before pulling the trigger. America just has to take this beating and wake up world number 2.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
A lot of talk on X about how the RE restrictions were retaliation for the 50% rule on entity listed companies US Commerce Dept. rolled out just before USG shut down. This apparently violated the Madrid consensus, in Chinese eyes.

Live example of hard power generating its own soft power.

Did China say this? No. China just bitchslapped the Americans hard with the RE move and now the Americans are scrambling to figure out what they did wrong to deserve the slap.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Live example of hard power generating its own soft power.

Did China say this? No. China just bitchslapped the Americans hard with the RE move and now the Americans are scrambling to figure out what they did wrong to deserve the slap.
Speaking of hard power turning into soft power; a lot of people on social media, Americans liberals, Euros, Canadians, are cheering China's rare earth ban because China's the only country that can slap Trump and it's just so satisfying for these bullied people to see it!
 

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
A lot of talk on X about how the RE restrictions were retaliation for the 50% rule on entity listed companies US Commerce Dept. rolled out just before USG shut down. This apparently violated the Madrid consensus, in Chinese eyes.
This is not the first time US Commerce Dept added export controls in middle of trade negotiation ceasefire. Seems like it happened earlier in summer which trigger retailiation from China with rare earths the first time around?

In any case, the anti-China hawks in US Commerce Dept who keeps on derailing trade negotiations needs to be fired before any good faith conversation can continue. The Rush Doshi types. Wholesale cleaning and reorganizing.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
What reason would the US have for starting a war before they've built up their own supply chain? If, as you say, rare earths are so critical to military production, then it would not make much sense for the US to go to war with China knowing that in a war time situation, China will certainly close down all trade with the US. If anything, this move forces the US to accelerate building its own supply chain, which would speed up the time to war, not delay it. If made for military purposes, it only makes sense if China intends to start a war, and I don't think that's the case (why would Xi be so impatient?)

Also, if China was planning to play this card (either defensively or otherwise) in a military scenario, it wouldn't give the US early notice (e.g. a month+ of lead time) to stock pile. It'd just shut down the supply without warning. The fact that both Trump's tariffs and the Chinese restrictions are dated to take effect a month+ into the future indicates to me that they want this to be public leverage. The main market for rare earths is high-end manufacturing and particularly the industries China wants to protect its position in (batteries, EVs, solar panels, chips, lasers, etc.) The military aspect is just being used to justify it, the real goal is commercial, in my opinion, since it is commercial industries that are hit the hardest in a scarcity environment (not the military, which have little concern for price and can dictate supply).

It’s hilarious, delusional even, to seriously suggest that the US could actually build up its own alternative comprehensive RE industry and supply chain.

China sanctioning RE is a similar level strategic move to America sanctioning oil to Japan during WWII. Without access to these critical elements, western advanced manufacturing becomes one massive paperweight. And we all know how the Japanese responded to the American oil sanctions eventually.

This risk of RE move would not have escaped China’s attention, and indeed was probably the overriding concern on China’s side to playing this card. This is why China was very gentle and restrained in the RE card application, to test how America and the west would respond as much as to test how effective the card was.

America and the collective wests response has convinced China that they would respond the same way as Japan did, so now they are kicking in contingency plans to counter the western war prep and no doubt kicking its own war prep into higher gears.
 
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