Miscellaneous News

Michael Pettis and Brad Setser base their economic analysis on accounting identities. One of the most problematic flaws of such analysis is that it ignores productivity growth, which propels per-capita economic growth and improves living standards eventually in the long term.

I guess fund managers should avoid talking about electricity generation.

discspinner said:

The core fantasy underlying the Indian elite psyche is the separation of Tibet from China, and in the maximalist scenario, fully integrated under the sovereignty of India proper. The logic goes that Buddhism originated from India, thus India is the spiritual protector of Tibet, which could justify such territorial aggression. This thinking dovetails with the colonialist mindset of Hindutva and represents an existential threat to China, full stop. Not unlike Iran calling for the destruction of Israel. This is unacceptable and cannot stand. I am sure the Chinese leadership understands this.

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I still find it funny how Hindus esp of BJP types are trying so hard to claim Buddha is one of them. This is despite Buddha being opposed to the Vedas, caste system and a lot of stuff that would make Hindus angry. Ambedkar who lead the dalit revolution mass converted to Buddhism (heavily influenced by SEA btw) to oppose the Hindu caste system. Not to mention Buddha isn't even Indian but Nepalese (if Indians wanna say Nepal didn't exist back then they should be consistent and say India also didn't exist). Also if you look at the history like with what Xuanzang wrote, Buddhism was sort of kicked out by Hindus quite a long time ago as they subtly cut off patronage while co-opting Buddhist ideas. India hasn't exactly been kind to Sri Lanka or Nepal despite their so called shared heritage.

I don't see this behavior applied so much to say Sikhs who are more consistent in maintaining their own identity. Then again Sikhs are fighters and aren't against using violence which they showed by killing a prime minister.

Fun fact: Did you know India is one of the largest beef exporters in the world? They justify this saying its not cow but buffalo so technically its not wrong coz the holy book says so for this special case. Even though buffalo is part of the Bovidae family (although not the same subspecies), the need for earning money far exceeds beliefs on animals.

My point is, despite India claiming to have strong beliefs so they perform an action, its probably the other way round where they want something and will make up a belief to justify it. Buddhism became popular outside and not Hinduism but India wants to clout so they justify it backwards. And history as shown that unfortunately the only way to deal with someone like that is to take action rather than appeal to their good (bad) faith. Otherwise, you will get screwed over.

I hope China is aware of this otherwise they are setting themselves up to be swindled.

Africablack said:

Automation is not the scare many people think it. Countries can still mandate that products have to be made in their countries for market access.

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This does nothing to improve their industrial capacity versus the rest of the world. If India were to do this long term they'd just fall farther and farther behind.

discspinner said:

The core fantasy underlying the Indian elite psyche is the separation of Tibet from China, and in the maximalist scenario, fully integrated under the sovereignty of India proper. The logic goes that Buddhism originated from India, thus India is the spiritual protector of Tibet, which could justify such territorial aggression. This thinking dovetails with the colonialist mindset of Hindutva and represents an existential threat to China, full stop. Not unlike Iran calling for the destruction of Israel. This is unacceptable and cannot stand. I am sure the Chinese leadership understands this.

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Any grand idea that involves trying to fight a major war in the high Himalayas is unserious and not worth paying any attention to. India's main goals are to take take the rest of Kashmir and to dominate the rest of South Asia. As long as these two objectives are incomplete, there is no threat to Chinese territory. And as any successful push into Kashmir will provoke a Chinese reaction, this is the most likely flashpoint of a conflict.

But it's clear that the Indian government and military are uninterested in a conflict of this scale, it's an afterthought in Indian-Chinese diplomacy.

FriedButter said:

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No more talking by the British government about eating moldy food is okay. That makes them look weak even though it's really happening because they have get the British not to waste food in these dire times. Do some Peter Zeihan type black and white superficial logic. How can most Western countries live first world lifestyles without selling more to markets outside their own aka selling their over-capacity? They don't have the resources within their borders. Then on top of that most Western allies are in the same boat as Great Britain so they can't really live off each other. That's why the Western alliance is built on all of them being in the same boat. They had nothing of their own so they had to take it from others. Hence why they were all former enemies to one another then and now are friends because they're weaker by themselves.

Now you know why they tried to colonize the world. Ironically they would tell try to tell you they did it for like sport because that would say how much power to indulge they had to do it. "They didn't need it. It was just for fun." It's like the Chinese embassy bombing during the Kosovo War. Americans couldn't admit it was a mistake because that would make them look weak that they got something wrong. So instead they would rather say it was intentional to save face. That's what's happening now. I'll make a Peter Zeihan conclusion and declare it's over for the West. Dunzo! The only way they can go back to the good ole days is by doing what they did to get there in the first place and that's by violating macro levels of other people's human rights. How else can you get everything for free? But they can't do that because this time someone is going to nuke them, something that couldn't be done before by their victims. But now they can...

That's why the West complains about how they can't compete with China for things like buying those very resources around the world that they need. China outbids them meaning the Chinese pay more than Western countries are willing. How can anyone be surprised at the West's situation when their empire was built on stealing everything they needed and not paying for it. You can see how shocking of a transition that would be for someone. And who wins in that tug-of-war between the West and China? The rest of the world especially the West's former colonies who are getting paid more for their resources than the West ever did in history. And they wonder why in alarm why China is winning influence around the world over them...? They're richer than China. How come they can't outbid China who's all by itself? It's either their economies are a lie or that's how fucking stingy they are today. They are hoping... somehow, the world will return to the good ole days.

What's Trump doing to allies that they're all complaining about? The very thing they were doing before Trump. Expecting everyone to give them a tribute for the honor of them being in your life. Their ways of making money is dwindling. The biggest customer, China, they're shutting out hoping to stop China and their inevitable fate. Hi-tech was huge business but because of Biden, they can't sell it to China. So all they have left to sell to China to make money... China can get anywhere else because that's the nature of what happens when you don't sell what customers want that they don't have. Now China is a technological behemoth. They have nothing left to sell to China. That's why Europe is fining others through regulations for their successes to make money. That's a part of their business plan to survive now. Look at Japan's reputation for cleanliness yet they don't understand why the Chinese just don't buy their radioactive fish. Look at South Korea's paranoid anti-Chinese activism yet they're complaining about how come they can't make money from selling their K-Pop in China where they had to get the US to press them on it. The Republicans think the world owes the US for gracing them with their presence. Look at what they imagine what they've done for the world, while ignoring their crimes, and the world owes them for it. TikTok is symbolic of the countdown to their end.

The West doesn't accept that they're just a part of this world where instead they believe they own it. They can survive if they accept being a part of the world they put everyone else in. All their problems revolve around believing they deserve more than everyone else and they need the rest of the world to accept that because believing it yourself is one thing. Making everyone else believe it is what it all matters. China doesn't believe it and that's why they're in a panic over it. Look at how modern China has had to work under their system and they're complaining now because they're losing in their own system. China is paying for the very resources the West needs from the global south. Why is China able to do that while they can't?

Randomuser said:

I still find it funny how Hindus esp of BJP types are trying so hard to claim Buddha is one of them. This is despite Buddha being opposed to the Vedas, caste system and a lot of stuff that would make Hindus angry. Ambedkar who lead the dalit revolution mass converted to Buddhism (heavily influenced by SEA btw) to oppose the Hindu caste system. Not to mention Buddha isn't even Indian but Nepalese (if Indians wanna say Nepal didn't exist back then they should be consistent and say India also didn't exist). Also if you look at the history like with what Xuanzang wrote, Buddhism was sort of kicked out by Hindus quite a long time ago as they subtly cut off patronage while co-opting Buddhist ideas. India hasn't exactly been kind to Sri Lanka or Nepal despite their so called shared heritage.

I don't see this behavior applied so much to say Sikhs who are more consistent in maintaining their own identity. Then again Sikhs are fighters and aren't against using violence which they showed by killing a prime minister.

Fun fact: Did you know India is one of the largest beef exporters in the world? They justify this saying its not cow but buffalo so technically its not wrong coz the holy book says so for this special case. Even though buffalo is part of the Bovidae family (although not the same subspecies), the need for earning money far exceeds beliefs on animals.

My point is, despite India claiming to have strong beliefs so they perform an action, its probably the other way round where they want something and will make up a belief to justify it. Buddhism became popular outside and not Hinduism but India wants to clout so they justify it backwards. And history as shown that unfortunately the only way to deal with someone like that is to take action rather than appeal to their good (bad) faith. Otherwise, you will get screwed over.

I hope China is aware of this otherwise they are setting themselves up to be swindled.

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India is a net food exporter and is also critically high on the hunger index.

India doesn't even care about humans, how can they care about cows?

Nevermore said:

I remain wary of India's industrialization pace. With the world's largest and youngest population, the entire Western world is now trying to build a second super manufacturing hub in India. Looking at India's manufacturing PMI over the past few years, it is clear that India's manufacturing sector in the 2020s and 2030s will be completely different from what it has been over the past 20 years.

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India's industrialization pace? India's industrial sector share was around 32% of the GDP in 2011. In 2023, it has declined to around 28%. India's economy may he growing, but it's industrial sector is either stagnating or declining relative to it's economy. India's FDI in 2025 had declined 96% from 2024. These are not signs of a rising manufacturing power.

India just doesn't pass the eye test for me. Make in India? How many products on our shelves today are actually made in India? Negligible. Demographic dividend? Indian youths are climbing over each other to apply for scarce positions in the government sector. India had been busier exporting migrant labour than attracting FDI. Indian education? Since Modi took power, it has become a joke. They are replacing periodic tables in school classrooms with Hindu holy cow science. Religious fanaticism reigns supreme in India, dividing societies and rejecting science. Indian society is essentially regressing into the middle ages.

So while the Indian demographic dividend fantasizes about becoming Supapowar conquerors, China is rapidly developing automation to take on lower-end manufacturing. The majority of the manufacturing that is moving out of China is not going to India. India have failed to develop the human capital to compete against ASEAN, let alone China. By screwing around with China, the final window for India to catch the industrialization train has effectively closed.

So India have just missed out on industrialization. Their arrogant foreign policy have pissed off half the world. Their patrons in the Global North are also getting sick and tired of them. The India in the 2030s could look very different from today. However, is it gonna be the same India that the Jai Hinds are fantasizing about?

resistance said:

I'm not called for return trump on something.

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English too poor; cannot understand.

resistance said:

It's a rare opertunity to inflicted damage on India without being surround.

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Actually, every time India acts up, China inflicts some damage on them and they back off and we're not surrounded.

resistance said:

Taco don knows that we can retaliated but India can't. So we must seized the opertunity

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Who is "we?" China and the US are not "we." Those are the 2 primary countries in the global rivalry so when one wants something, typically, the other wants the reverse. When the US wants to buckle India, China protects them. When the US wants to bolster India, we suppress them.

resistance said:

Tell me What can India offered as a temporarily allies then? Go to macros? And India will definitely back to America again once America satisfied whether we kick it or not. Don't be so naive.

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It's really just to piss Trump off and lock up another one of his misadventures so that he's stuck fighting his own failures. Kick India and it helps Trump. Never help your adversary. We don't give India anything anyway. We didn't unlock rare earth restrictions but India unlocked TikTok and Aliexpress. A little bit of cooperation is a little temporary progress, but keep your eyes on your real enemy, never allow yourself to be distracted by clowns, and never do anything that your enemy wants you to do.

resistance said:

Tell you what, even before the sanction, Russia didn't imposed such restrictions on Japanese or European firms when they also dominate as well. Why did Chinese get that? Why not regulated it without selectively on Chinese firm only

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China's the most competitive and Russia needed to protect its own industries? I really don't know the circumstances but whether a country is a friend or foe doesn't depend on any cherry-picked event like you're doing now. It depends on the large picture, which is that Russia is fighting China's enemies for us, keeping them off our backs and the Russia economy has turned away from the West towards China. So it's a friend. That's all there is to it. It doesn't matter what kind of small oddly specific bullshit you find, "Oh, in 2022, Russia once rejected a shipment of Chinese apples. DO FRIENDS DO THAT??? THEY TREAT US LIKE ENEMY!" The big picture is all that matters and the big picture says that Russia is very much on China's side right now and they deserve reciprocation.

resistance said:

I didn't called for hampering their war progress. I advocate for extracting concession for china but allowed Russia to go on uninterrupted, how would it be alienating Russia?

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Russia is fighting 30+ of our enemies at once and you don't want to contribute? You want to extract concessions??!! LOLOL You are dense, man, very very dense. Right now, Russia's fighting for the both of us. China needs to support them like NATO supports Ukraine. I told you this before but it seems you didn't get it. I asked you, what if Russia ends the war? Right now, they can sign a deal with Trump that would give them massive plots of Ukrainian territory and it would let bygones be bygones. Then, Russia can start to reintegrate into the Western economy again and the West can focus on the China threat again. Is that what you want? Is that what you call strategy? That's not what I want. I want China to give Russia the material support to convince it that it should fight for more of Ukraine, amplify the troubles of the West and buy China more time to develop into a titan that none of them can hope to challenge. That is strategy.

resistance said:

Russia also member Wassenaar Arrangement so china must prepared for Russia joining west one day no matter how hard china tried to maintain friendship with Russia anyways.

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China is ready; we do not trust blindly as we have much in reserve that we did not open to Russia. But we are not stupid; we do not let Russia fall so our enemies can focus on us and we certainly do not push countries into the jaws of the West so they can be forced to capitulate and be integrated into the Western empire. When we see cracks in our enemies, we open them, we don't push them together like the US does with China and Russia.

FairAndUnbiased said:

I think you might underestimate what irreversible damage is. Even Japanese attack on China in WW2 wasn't irreversible. It has been reversed, after all. And China can't and shouldn't do that to India.

Minor setbacks only become irreversible to fragile countries. India is not fragile. Fragile is different than weak. India is weak, but like a pile of mud, it is resilient.

1980s Japan was rich, but brittle, like a vase. It cracked at the first pressure.

China is both strong and resilient, like a block of steel reinforced concrete.

Don't mistake India for Japan, it would be just a big of a mistake as US mistaking China for Japan.

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Irreversible damage is almost always related to territorial demographics.

The colonial war Europe waged on the New World is an example of irreversible damage. The Native Americans have lost total and permanent control over their lands, and will never get them back. Their civilization(s) have been destroyed, and even if the tribes living in US reservations survive to create a new civilization in the far future, it won't be a continuation of what they had, because the reservations have already been thoroughly compromised - less than 10% of Native Americans can still speak their own native languages.

Ironically, this fate is just as obvious in South America, despite the relatively "lighter" ethnic cleansing and genocide. This is because in South America, the result was achieved through sex-selective assimilation. What passes for "Latino" these days is mostly an European male + Native female mix, whose languages and cultures have been thoroughly destroyed and replaced with European derivatives. While the hybrid cultures of South America may retain a stronger semblance of native cultural influences (via the assimilation process), in fact, the cultural and ethnic destruction is equally complete.

India was also colonized and subjugated by the West. But it remains resilient because Western colonists never made up more than 1% of the Indian population (or even close to it). The British were able to rule effectively through playing local Indian rulers against one another, and they had an outsized influence on Indian culture via the promotion of the English language and colonial education.

But as we can see, without changing the territorial demographics of India / South Asia, their influences are ultimately ephemeral. India remains Hindu and "native" in its deep culture and political psychology. China can effect no more change, here, than the British did. Better to learn to live with India, in that respect, than to try and change it. That means improving China's own territorial demographics and security, so that India cannot exploit superior demographics in the future to colonize Chinese border lands via legal/illegal immigration. That is the main long-term danger India poses to China, not its existence as an unified state.

Africablack said:

Automation is not the scare many people think it. Countries can still mandate that products have to be made in their countries for market access.

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Yes they could. Then these countries shouldn't have ambitions about competing in the world export market. Their manufacturing will be severely behind the curve. Foreign companies will be selling products made by automation. The competition is gonna be ruthless.

There's still more than a week left to the parade and American Shilao is already tired.


Alright which one of you is this?