I think the "Chinese student visa" thing is a fabricated bargaining chip. It makes US looks good, but I have not read any official comments or protests from China.
I think what China wants in exchange of rare earth export control is semiconductor related.
China doesn't care about semiconductors, China need to recoup semi investment and allowing US companies to flood Chinese market is counter to that. Semi restrictions are in China's interest and it will cost China more money and political capital to have to implement an import ban.
RE rules aren't for bargaining, RE rules are for controlling and throttling western tech, especially military tech.
The student visa thing is global on Israel's request and doesn't even have to do with China, as for other fabricated chips they were exchanged for China's unofficial pause in US application review, i.e. a chip China also fabricated.
The new normal is "compliant trade", i.e. total transparency to China for all industrial operations, this is what Trump was forced to accept in exchange for a 6 month license to even have an auto industry.
