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Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Try to convince the USA and Ukraine of this, not me. But it is difficult when Putin allows them to also damage Russia's image with impunity. So for them it's worth doing this.


But this arrangement favors guerrilla warfare with herdsmen in sandals, but would not favor the comprador elite of Jews and Poles who now make money from Western governments and companies to fight Russia, while are also reducing the opposition of Orthodox "inferiors" in battles for the territory they want to dominate alone. ..
The response made here presupposes that Russia does not have escalation dominance militarily and the EU has the socio-political-economic heft to sustain such a long game against Russia. It also presupposes that EU economic anemic growth will not hamper such lofty ambitions only to be faced with angry mob of "pro-autocratic, pro-authoritarian" populace, such lunatic strategy can only work so far because economic stagnation affects all regardless of political ideology.

Only the demented ideologues and fairy dusted western bots/elites wouldn't bother with the actual reality of economic deprivation.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
The NYT article is here:
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I like how he realizes China is so advanced and ahead, but at the same time, gives some shitty advice like this:

Okay, US with it's youths killing CEO of health insurance companies and subpar life expectancy advising China to improve good healthcare, and US with it's technologically lagging EV cars is asking China to design EVs less for abroad. This supremacist mindset needs to be fundamentally taken down, really the audacity to talk to China like it's some colony or vassal, it's really exceptional. These are the same idiots who suggest China needs more "liberal arts majors" and less "STEM/engineer majors" right, that mindset is so patronizing and infantilizing.
It's also interesting that western thinking always resolve around zero-sum / distributive activity, that for there to be more nurses at home there must be less engineers, as though you can't have more of both through greater productivity and automation, or when prices drop it must be because people aren't buying, as though the idea of increasing supply is fundamentally unfathomable. Same with solar vs nuclear, or train vs airplane, or car vs public transit.

At end of the day western culture is inherently distributive and fundamentally resolve around robbery, so that even when they could have dominated trade when they went through industrial revolution, they still choose to colonize, enslave and pillage.

It's for this reason that China has a duty to the human race to keep a boot on the face of western nations for the rest of time, and never allow them to rise ever again.
 

quim

Junior Member
Registered Member
So the plan is: run out of men to fight Russia, then negotiate for Russia to let you dominate Ukraine? lol
@mods, as I see this conversation is continuing, this is a new entry, independent of the last one that was stopped due to personal exchanges. It will be all point-to-point on topic with nothing personal.

Who's laughing and which allies? If the US wants to negotiate and told Ukraine to let its territory go, that is their sign of weakness. If they thought Russia could be defeated, they would do it. Russia's main allies are China and Belarus. There are no changes to thier support. Can you name any country that has changed its stance on Russia?

He's now testing new missiles like Oreshnik in Ukraine. He's basically playing with it and killing people to validate military technology now. He's also increasing the general combat intensity.
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Only if you were to compare Russia with Israel, both countries that have gained land in the conflict and inflicted disoproportionate casualities on their enemies.

There is no diplomacy when the whole West fears Russia. The creation of NATO was specifically to keep the Russians out as they are natural enemies. Nobody in the West fears Israel; Israel is an instrument of Western control inthe middle-east.

I'd say angry backseat drivers insulting world leaders feared by all the West is more despicable, especially when they understand nothing compared to those leaders, not the situation within the Russian/Ukrainian militaries and not the long-term plans made.

Of course they have support from the West. How can they not? How can they withdraw support? You talk about Russia's credibility but this is their credibility on the line and it is being used as a tool to trap them to bleed out.

So basically, in this words case scenario where Russia is expanding by NYC-sized land by the month and just decides to stop, it will still have taken a big chunk of Ukraine.

But your assumption that Russia will negotiate to Trump's favor makes no sense. Russia is advancing; whether they negotiate is up to them, not Trump. Actually, in this scenerio, it makes sense for Russia to wait for Trump to enter office before making heavy pushes. Why? Because the exiting Biden team is volatile; they may escalate with Russia and do stupid rash things to make the mess more difficult for the Trump team to clean up. But when Trump comes into office with a clear desire to end the Ukrainian conflict so he can focus on China, Russia can do many things and put all the chess pieces where they want before they allow Trump to negotiate on Russian terms.

That's not true. War efforts are kept up by young men, not the leadership. Leaderships often collapse and new leaderships arise but when the combat population is decimated, the war effort is soundly defeated.

Putin has told China that he wouldn't mind if it goes on for 5 more years at least. Russia stamina is historically known. You cannot expect to go to war and not get hit at all. Israel is hit often by rockets from all sides. Putin answers by continuing his land expansion and the killing of the Ukrainian military population.

This wasn't for me, but the feeling is mutual. I have cited all the reasons. Let's see if you can rebut them point-to-point. Nothing personal to go off on, just points on the conflict.

It's not gaining territory to take your own things back that you lost. Net gain/loss is the key. If you lost your wallet, then found it again, you didn't profit a wallet. Russia profited Ukrainian land; Ukraine lost it.

What about personel loss? That is the purpose of a meat grinder. It is Russia's tactic to lure Ukraine into meat grinders, locations where they lose more and more men without any meaningful territorial exchange. They say in battle that if you trade territory to preserve your men, you can fight and win it back, but if you gave up your men for the territory, you will have no defenders to keep it. This is what is happening to Ukraine, which is increasing desperate in its mandatory draft with women and boys being called up to fight.

Ukraine cannot swallow it but the USA is calling Ukraine to let go of its losses and negotiate. At the beginning, neither side wanted negotiations with Russia, with Zelensky saying negotiations are not possible until every inch of Ukrainian land is returned and Putin is deposed. He's no longer so picky, is he?
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These are details compared to big picture that Ukraine is running out of people, regardless of their religion or origin, who can fight for it while Russia is just getting ramped up with more soldiers and new weapons.
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"The Russian military is accelerating its gains along the front line.
Your main mistake is to think that NATO has already done everything they can against Russia. But the escalation is progressive and in stages.

NATO's plan in Ukraine is certainly to weaken Russia by exploiting every loophole they find. If the provocations continue without responses, the West could send Tomahawks and other weapons against Russian factories and depots and also against Russian institutions and authorities. Those attacks can certainly have an impact on the battlefield at some point and you simply ignore or underestimate this.

This also partially explains Putin's restraint. And nukes cannot be used so easily to prevent everything.

So they dream that Putin will be overthrown like Assad by disgruntled generals at risk, and in this mess, NATO wins.

Obviously I don't believe that the West will achieve everything they plan and I also don't believe that Putin will achieve everything he plans.

Therefore there will be a negotiated stalemate at some point, as I have always said.

I came with a different conclusion and as a matter of fact this latest alleged Trump demand is exactly what's needed from the EU camps that are clamouring for publicity demanding for Ukraine support. In my interpretation of Donald's Trump latest salvo is to put the onerous spending on the EU-NATO member countries to shoulder more military spending that's been shouldering by the Americans - rightfully or wrongfully perceived as EU riding on American coattails a.k.a. FREELOADING on its taxpayers.

The question then becomes or must be asked by these EU countries whose economies are tethering on financial delinquency.

Such approach is an actual win-win for America and America not EU or some NATO solidarity rhetorical crap people in Europe love to wrap themselves with to feel safe and secure.

How are the fine folks in EU countries going to accept such "demand" from the America-first President is going to be interesting, not to mention how are they going to pay for such a massive ask and where is the money going to come from? Are the fine Uber wealth EU folks going to fork up for such a fine commitment of freedom and democracy fund? Or the poor is going to be asked to shoulder more "MIGRANTS" and "DIVERSITY" to fulfill such beautiful agenda. Time will tell.
This is a demand that coincides with that of Poland and other countries that have already increased military spending and supports Ukraine.

This will only be more difficult for France, UK Germany and Italy to comply with.

The response made here presupposes that Russia does not have escalation dominance militarily and the EU has the socio-political-economic heft to sustain such a long game against Russia. It also presupposes that EU economic anemic growth will not hamper such lofty ambitions only to be faced with angry mob of "pro-autocratic, pro-authoritarian" populace, such lunatic strategy can only work so far because economic stagnation affects all regardless of political ideology.

Only the demented ideologues and fairy dusted western bots/elites wouldn't bother with the actual reality of economic deprivation.
Most of Europe's economic problems have to do with bureaucrats who made bad choices and unnecessary or inefficient spending.

But in reality any country can sustain high military spending if they cut superfluous spending and, in the future, they would still have a very competitive and sustainable economy, as Russia proves, managing to face NATO in Ukraine to a certain extent.

So this wouldn't be as difficult as some imagine, especially with countries under pressure and when incompetent governments are being fired easily with votes of no confidence.

Popular dissatisfaction and revolts do not bring down governments because of spending cuts. Only the military sector can truly overthrow a government !!!!!

That's why I insist that Ukraine will end in a stalemate.

The only way Russia could win unquestionably would be if China started to directly and publicly support Russia with weapons to face NATO. That would change the calculation and give the West room to actually abandon the Ukraine project. But for now China maintains the doctrine of non-interference.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
This is not a point-to-point. Point-to-point comes as a natural skill after you are trained in it, not something you do only at work. An NBA player doesn't forget how to dribble on his day off and an MMA athlete does not forget how to fight if attacked while resting at home. Most of my points were lost in this reply, not responded to.
Your main mistake is to think that NATO has already done everything they can against Russia. But the escalation is progressive and in stages.
They've already shot their own economies and Russia has turned a stale situation in its favor. It's not that NATO has done everything they can; it's that they would be really killing themselves in WWIII fashion to go further. Russia, on the other hand, is far from done escalating; they literally escalate as they grow. Orshniks, increasing missile strike frequency and combat intensity, advancing through 6X more territory in 2024 than 2023, are all Russian escalations.
NATO's plan in Ukraine is certainly to weaken Russia by exploiting every loophole they find.
But instead, they have put themselves into recession/stagnation, refreshed the Russian military giving them live oppertunties to test high tech missiles, failed to prevent Russian land expansion and made the Russian economy not only stronger but China-oriented. NATO's plan has failed in every regard.
If the provocations continue without responses, the West could send Tomahawks and other weapons against Russian factories and depots and also against Russian institutions and authorities. Those attacks can certainly have an impact on the battlefield at some point and you simply ignore or underestimate this.
It's that you missed the escalations. That's why we do point-to-point so you don't pretend that something was not said. From my last post:

"He's now testing new missiles like Oreshnik in Ukraine. He's basically playing with it and killing people to validate military technology now. He's also increasing the general combat intensity."
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That's on top of Russia taking an NYC sized land mass last month. All are escalations even if they don't branch out into new dimensions like terrorism in civilian centers.
This also partially explains Putin's restraint. And nukes cannot be used so easily to prevent everything.
He shows restraint because when he could not take Ukraine quickly, he changed the war into something that Russia can benefit from, both in terms of sharpening its military and in terms of economically moving away from the EU to China. And also, NATO, although routed, is not crushed. Putin knows that he can't have his military gassed out and vulnerable after blitzing Ukraine; he needs to keep the majority of his lethal force in case of WWIII.
So they dream that Putin will be overthrown like Assad by disgruntled generals at risk,
Who dreams? This is why we use point-to-point.
and in this mess, NATO wins.
Someone dreams that Putin will be deposed, it doesn't happen, and NATO wins???
Obviously I don't believe that the West will achieve everything they plan and I also don't believe that Putin will achieve everything he plans.
Nobody gets everything but it's a matter of who takes more and right now, Ukraine has lost 18% of its land, is losing more, and Russia is gaining it.
Therefore there will be a negotiated stalemate at some point, as I have always said.
A negotiation does not mean a stalemate. The side that walks out with more than he walked in is the winner and right now, it's just a matter of how much Russia will be up by.
 
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iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
Your main mistake is to think that NATO has already done everything they can against Russia. But the escalation is progressive and in stages.

NATO's plan in Ukraine is certainly to weaken Russia by exploiting every loophole they find. If the provocations continue without responses, the West could send Tomahawks and other weapons against Russian factories and depots and also against Russian institutions and authorities. Those attacks can certainly have an impact on the battlefield at some point and you simply ignore or underestimate this.

This also partially explains Putin's restraint. And nukes cannot be used so easily to prevent everything.

So they dream that Putin will be overthrown like Assad by disgruntled generals at risk, and in this mess, NATO wins.

Obviously I don't believe that the West will achieve everything they plan and I also don't believe that Putin will achieve everything he plans.

Therefore there will be a negotiated stalemate at some point, as I have always said.


This is a demand that coincides with that of Poland and other countries that have already increased military spending and supports Ukraine.

This will only be more difficult for France, UK Germany and Italy to comply with.


Most of Europe's economic problems have to do with bureaucrats who made bad choices and unnecessary or inefficient spending.

But in reality any country can sustain high military spending if they cut superfluous spending and, in the future, they would still have a very competitive and sustainable economy, as Russia proves, managing to face NATO in Ukraine to a certain extent.

So this wouldn't be as difficult as some imagine, especially with countries under pressure and when incompetent governments are being fired easily with votes of no confidence.

Popular dissatisfaction and revolts do not bring down governments because of spending cuts. Only the military sector can truly overthrow a government !!!!!

That's why I insist that Ukraine will end in a stalemate.

The only way Russia could win unquestionably would be if China started to directly and publicly support Russia with weapons to face NATO. That would change the calculation and give the West room to actually abandon the Ukraine project. But for now China maintains the doctrine of non-interference.
It's your mistake in thinking China has done everything it can against NATO.
Meanwhile China hasn't even cut off dual-use supply to NATO yet.
You're also interestingly confident in Elon/Trump's support for Ukraine, lol
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
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this 5% such meaningless number for Europe. These countries are trapped in high cost environment. suppose if Germany orders 5 submarines so advanced and customized that it cost $500b and 50 years to built. problem of 5% solved.
Just a train line cost increased 400% in less than 10 years and that is Baltic. and than you add demographic collapse for various reason means much higher incentives to attract people.

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Criminal proceedings started in Latvia in connection with Rail Baltica project​

As previously reported,
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has been mired in various problems. The cost of the ambitious Rail Baltica project has risen to almost €24 billion from less than €6 billion initially. The completion date has slipped back from 2026 to 2030 and it remains blighted by various other controversies.

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22nd November 2024

Polish health experts call for a coal phase out, as smog season starts​

In Poland, air pollution leads to 47,000 premature deaths each year, and the burning of coal for energy generation or for heating in households is a major source of pollution.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
Trump would be discredited in politics if he immediately cut off aid to Ukraine

Too much emphasis over the political sphere. He hardly cares about what they think. They hated him 9 years ago, 5 years ago, and they still hate him now. It makes no real difference. However, he does care about his ego, legacy, and America image of strength. The speed of aid cuts (assuming he does) isn’t going to depend on the political scene but more internal and PR related matters.
 

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
Typical, as they always just project their unpopular desires onto the enemy.

But Ukraine as a country today is a project that serves the Jews and Poles who inhabited the lands of former Galicia and who still inhabit western Ukraine today, a region that is still intact.

The majority of Orthodox people would be more favorable to Russia in elections, for example.

Now in the war, the Jewish and Polish elite command the Orthodox to fight against Russia and Russia only kills the Orthodox used as cannon fodder.

It's a Machiavellian plan, but it's working well for the Ukrainian command, we have to admit.
The western Ukraine will have its day when war ends. Those elements will be cleaned off. It really is not a good plan to lose wars and call it 4D chess.
 

quim

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is not a point-to-point. Point-to-point is a natural skill, not something you do only at work. An NBA player doesn't forget how to dribble on his day off and an MMA champ does not become a pushover if attacked while resting at home. Most of my points were lost in this reply, not responded to.
It's just a forum, I'm in my free time almost going to sleep, I don't need to teach anyone or follow any model just because you want me to. Let's stop with these off topics.

I just need to answer what is really worth it and not every irrelevant detail.

You wrote as if testing 1 oreshk and capturing a tiny area of less than 2,000 square km in more than 1 year was an escalation that would cause fear or prevent NATO from continuing to provoke Russia. These things are simply not enough escalations. These are just predictable actions by Putin that denote how he is afraid of the conflict escalating into an all-out war.
Someone dreams that Putin will be deposed, it doesn't happen, and NATO wins???
NATO dreams of making a mess so that Putin can be removed from office and that way they win, obviously. You don't get tired of being a dishonest debater, picking up irrelevant details to undermine the message of others. please, let's be honest so as not to derail the thread again.

It's your mistake in thinking China has done everything it can against NATO.
Meanwhile China hasn't even cut off dual-use supply to NATO yet.
You're also interestingly confident in Elon/Trump's support for Ukraine, lol
China is still officially neutral and would be unlikely to change that. The only support that China gives to Russia is indirect, keeping Russian trade and civil economy alive.
And I'm not trusting Elon/Trump, I just doubt Putin's willingness to win alone in Ukraine without going into a total war. For now Russia still treats it as a special military operation only. Putin fears martial law, the war economy and having to attack NATO.
 
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