Live in China right now, this is pure BS.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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Apparently, the Houthis shot down an MQ-9 Reaper Drone.
Nah you're reading the article as if it was a factual statement, which it's not. The article is the American way of "creating the conditions", something that Canada doesn't know how to do.
Trade wars can be bad for Europe but its also bad for China as well. Especially now, When China is no longer contract manufacturer but active brand builder.
Chinese brands will be the primary driver of China's future growth. So, Chinese branded Cars, Tvs, Computers, Phones, Apps such as Tiktok and Temu. These Chinese branded products will have much bigger profit if they have access to US, EU and other western allied markets.
But the way the new cold war is going, I feel the west will never allow Chinese branded products to have market share in the west. Just like how they killed Huawei's market access in the west, they will ban all Chinese branded products with the accusation of Spying, hacking and whatever excuse they can find.
The west has 55 billion in nominal GDP which is more than 50% of world nominal GDP. This is the biggest buying power. So, if Chinese brands are forced to just rely on Chinese market and the global south, then they will survive ofcourse but they will not have all the revenues and profits they could get. This will in turn slow down China's GDP growth rate. Over the long term, having two different tech ecosystem of China and the West is not good for China's future wealth and prosperity.
So, right now China will do anything, even kowtow if they have to stop US and EU from sanctioning Chinese branded products and apps. That's why you see Tiktok bending the knee just to maintain market access.
Europe and US are already rich and can afford to attack China. But China is still poor and wants to be rich. So, it has no choice but to make concessions just to have the opportunity to become rich. Thats why China was forced to do the trade deal with Trump. They essentially bent the knee because they were in a weaker position.
China will have to play a very delicate diplomatic game so that US and Europe do not become too hostile to ban everything Chinese. And this is what they are doing. When US attacks with sanctions and bans, China does not retaliate proportionally. They do a symbolic retaliation but keep asking for peace and for a deal. This is how they want to reduce US and western animosity towards China and continue to gain wealth.
This is China's biggest long term crisis, How to keep US and EU market for Chinese products over the long term.
So far I think its hopeless. The trend is extremely negative.
So just drop the Commies and allow all western companies to buy off every Chinese companies for pennies then all will be good then right?
In all of this that you've written, perhaps the most accurate part that you wrote is "But the way the new cold war is going, I feel the west will never allow Chinese branded products to have market share in the west. Just like how they killed Huawei's market access in the west, they will ban all Chinese branded products with the accusation of Spying, hacking and whatever excuse they can find."
Depending on the trajectory of things, this is very likely to be the outcome of China's trade relations with the US and potentially the EU and extended west, however I do not understand how this following part of your post makes sense:
"So, right now China will do anything, even kowtow if they have to stop US and EU from sanctioning Chinese branded products and apps. That's why you see Tiktok bending the knee just to maintain market access."
Access to US and EU markets is a nice to have -- it is not compulsory, and if restrictions and trade wars are commenced then China will simply retaliate in an equal manner.
US demands on Tiktok were of relatively minor tactical consequence that didn't bother the Chinese state, and China did not compromise on anything beyond what they would allow Bytedance to make their own decisions on.
Instead, the real casualties of the trade war/tech war were of course the likes of Huawei and other higher technology firms and industries (especially semiconductors) which we are seeing the progression of -- and that is where the real consequence and action is.
Ultimately, PRC trade is beyond that of the US and EU and I do not see any particular means in which either of those nations would be able to carry out destructive trade actions without Chinese reciprocity that does not at least hurt them in equal measure, and I certainly do not see China as being desperate to gain market access (even for higher value added industries or brands) that they would be willing to make one sided compromises.
I'm not sure if the EU is leading in any key 'forward looking' technology, plus their resource deficiency, makes their position unsustainable. If and when US overall power is reduced to a point where it can't adequately control the EU, individual European countries will likely start breaking off and doing their own thing (e.g. Hungary, Belarus).
I'm also not sure how much of a role nationalism will play (against China) in tangible terms, because at the end of the day, people need basic supplies. Brazil, Hungary, German AfD as examples.
I guess the key variable is the timeline of US decline; if it gets its sh*t together we'll see EU getting sucked ever closer to the US regardless of its own interests, whereas long term it will try to follow the money, with France trying to get an upper hand over Germany.
Their relationship with Russia (plus ME) will most likely be soured for at least a few generations, so their energy needs will prob not be met the same way again, leading to widespread industrial decline. Again, it comes down to individual countries deciding to serve their own interests or not, and making the diplomatic reorientations needed to facilitate that. And if they decide to reorient, their markets will be reset.
US is rich, that's why it can afford to launch a trade war with China. Europe is (relatively) poor, that's why the europoor meme has been floating online for a while. FYI China's median wealth has already surpassed Europe last year, not sure why you think Europe is rich and China is poor. China has also surpassed EU in GDP a while ago.
Europe embracing protectionism is a sign of decline, not a symbol of strength. When Europe was on the ascend they knocked on the door of China with gunboats and forced "free trade" onto China.
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