Harris VP mystery: Signs point to Shapiro
No one who
really knows is talking. But White House, campaign and party sources tell Axios that all signs point to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, 51, being picked as running mate for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Why it matters: Virtually all roads to 270 electoral votes run through Pennsylvania — one of the few things the Harris and Trump campaigns agree on.
While Harris could surprise everyone, she seems to be headed toward a pick that a wide variety of sources — Republicans and Democrats — think is both shrewd and straightforward.
- It's a combination of math and logic: Pennsylvania's 19 electoral college votes are the biggest swing-state prize on the map, and its Democratic governor has a 61% approval rating.
Driving the news: Shapiro's VP stock hit record highs Thursday afternoon after CNN reported he was canceling a series of weekend fundraisers in the Hamptons.
- Technically, a total of six potential running mates are still in play. But most of the conversation among senior Democrats has narrowed to Shapiro and Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona.
- Shapiro met with Harris' vetting team on Wednesday. Kelly did the same on Tuesday.
- For several days, Wall Street has been convinced Harris will pick a governor, in part because big-dollar donors were told to mail in their checks this week to avoid triggering a pay-to-play financial rule.
What we're watching: Face-to-face interviews between the sitting vice president and her potential replacement have yet to happen. But Harris plans to meet with the candidates as the last step in the super-condensed vetting process, Politico reports.
What we're hearing: After a topsy-turvy month, the Democratic Party is done with surprises.
- No more bombshells. The system is overloaded. Democrats believe that if Harris has telegraphed it's Shapiro, she should pick Shapiro.
- The Harris campaign has urged reporters not to read into Philadelphia being chosen to kick off a battleground tour on Tuesday. But Shapiro will almost certainly be there — either as a running mate or runner-up.
- A Trump insider told Axios that many top Republicans also assume the pick will be Shapiro: "Pennsylvania's the whole ballgame."
Zoom out: Like all big White House secrets — Supreme Court picks or the decision to drop out of the presidential race — the universe of people who have hard intelligence is quite small.
- But as an announcement nears, that universe starts to expand. For reporters and political obsessives, the game is on.
- More people know. Then more people think they know. And, finally, everyone pretends to know. Eventually the three groups converge.
- News leaks out, sending reporters scrambling to confirm if it's true, which it isn't always.
Zoom in: Trust us, there's nothing worse than not knowing who the VP pick is after spending months following a candidate around the country when, say, the AP has it.
- Minutes feel like hours. Hours like days. You wish you'd taken the bar and become a lawyer.
- Candidates love the subterfuge. Ask the GOP's Paul Ryan in 2012, who slipped through the woods behind his Wisconsin home.
The bottom line: We don't know if Shapiro is Harris' pick. But lots of sources we trust don't see another choice.
