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manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Run of a trade model suggests 60% tariffs would be a completely prohibitive tariff

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Exactly, this is what most Americans think. They're not willing to let go like you. They'd rather turn up the heat on their own people, make their lives more expensive and unaffordable, if it could possibly spite China. They do this with tunnel-vision, with the obsessive goal to make China a "loser" while they themselves lose sight of all the self-harm around them caused to the American people by their actions. And what does China do? Just defend. We look for more markets in the global south, expand our trade partnerships elsewhere, export the same products to ther countries that then stamp them as locally made, then sell to America with their markup, etc... so we take no harm while America suffers from itself. It lost Trade War I and it will lose Trade War II.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Honestly with so many horrible things happening in the US that I've never seen before growing up,
Recency bias is a well known cognitive bias. San Francisco is also 0.2% of the United States. There’s also far more media and information access that brings all the issues in the world easily accessible instead of being filtered by one of 3 tveditors (nbc, cbs, or abc)
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I saw the news filled with young Americans lamenting that they could never afford a house like their parents because housing prices went up 300% and salaries grew 30% in the same time.
Home ownership rates are well within their historic average -
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I still don't know if, through all this, American is actually improving very slowly as your data suggests or if it's some instance where politicians in need of re-elections are playing their hand (since different sources have different data as there are discrepencies between your sources and mine) but the data that you show me does sink in and cast doubt.
You bring out cross-sections and/or time-series that last for 2 years but when you look at the decades-long time-series, nearly everything is getting better. There’s no inconsistency.

Also, “the statistical agencies are producing fake data” is the saddest of all the copes (whether applied to the U.S. or China). 70% of the electorate doesn’t have an undergraduate degree - they don’t care about this.
It seems that COVID is a point of inflection in many graphs so I'd doubt the usefulness of comparing to pre-COVID times.
COVID would’ve caused many indicators to get worse, regardless of governance.
Chinese markets work differently from American ones and it allows China to grow at its world-beating clip so I'd be cautious with any change.
The CSRC itself has said they want to deepen capital markets substantially
What crisis? The GDP grows over 5%. China's control over its markets means that often, what amounts to a crisis in the West is just an adjustment for China.

There are no countries at similar levels of development to China;
It’s a comparison across time to the tigers at similar levels of gdppc. China is growing slower than what you’d expect if you used those countries as reference points (see pg. 6 -
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)
we are at a level of reaching autonomy while still charging to the forefront of technology.
If China had uniquely high levels of technological deepening, its gdp growth would be faster.
I have no idea what data you are talking about but if you mean things like per capita income and personal wealth, then of course. The importance is that they are rising and China has much greater overall numbers.
Simple example: only 70% of rural China has access to a toilet (
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)
Well, if you're drawing evidence from things that you know are of highly limited probative value, then that's your error there.
No: if China was managed by supremely competent people, evergrande shouldn’t have gone bankrupt (financial regulators should’ve stopped it sooner), securities regulators should’ve found a better way of channeling private Chinese savings to capital formation, and China would be growing faster than tigers at similar levels of development.
The US is "reasonably well managed" compared to its other developed country peers in Europe which honestly don't set a high standard.
The best managed country of all the wealthiest countries is “reasonably well managed”. Sadly, we live on planet earth and deal with constraints of public and asymmetric information and are governed by humans.
 

chgough34

Junior Member
Registered Member
Exactly, this is what most Americans think. They're not willing to let go like you. They'd rather turn up the heat on their own people, make their lives more expensive and unaffordable,
Only 3% of us household spending are used to buy things made in China -
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if it could possibly spite China. They do this with tunnel-vision, with the obsessive goal to make China a "loser" while they themselves lose sight of all the self-harm around them caused to the American people by their actions.
The U.S. is able to create fairly large headaches for China, create an unfavorable political environment for China, make the entire Chinese business class uniformly suffer a sentiment shock and all at the cost of what? CPI being 0.1% higher and 1 quarter of gdp growth? The U.S. is important for Chinese corporates: China isn’t important for US corporates. Such is the case when you are a massive and large economy isolated from the rest of the world.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Run of a trade model suggests 60% tariffs would be a completely prohibitive tariff

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1. This is not a serious proposition.

2. Then again, they are stupid enough to try it.

If they do, and Trump goes ahead with it, that probably is the end of Pax-America.

A 60% tariff, kind of completely nuts, is a total economic retreat from the world.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
Only 3% of us household spending are used to buy things made in China -
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The U.S. is able to create fairly large headaches for China, create an unfavorable political environment for China, make the entire Chinese business class uniformly suffer a sentiment shock and all at the cost of what? CPI being 0.1% higher and 1 quarter of gdp growth? The U.S. is important for Chinese corporates: China isn’t important for US corporates. Such is the case when you are a massive and large economy isolated from the rest of the world.

Do you really know how off-beat (to put it mildly) you really sound?

You're just repeating this position of strength argument.

:D:rolleyes::p
 

fishrubber99

New Member
Registered Member
Only 3% of us household spending are used to buy things made in China -
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ou're completely discounting that
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(worth $500 billion or so dollars) are from China. If household spending doesn't account for this, then I'm assuming most of these imports are going to a different sector of the US economy, for which there will be downstream effect on US households. For a frame of reference, this would be like if the US just stopped importing from Canada entirely (Canada is around 14% of US imports).

In addition to that, if import tariffs will be put in place there will most likely be a lot of loopholes and exemptions given to certain companies and entities which manufacture heavily in China (due to bourgeois elite capture of the US political system.) E.g
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. In addition to that,
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. This will definitely change as Apple and other companies diversify their supply chains, but as
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in phones/electronics/consumer vehicles in China's domestic market, I don't think this will result in a huge spike in unemployment.
The U.S. is able to create fairly large headaches for China, create an unfavorable political environment for China, make the entire Chinese business class uniformly suffer a sentiment shock and all at the cost of what? CPI being 0.1% higher and 1 quarter of gdp growth? The U.S. is important for Chinese corporates: China isn’t important for US corporates. Such is the case when you are a massive and large economy isolated from the rest of the world.
China's exports to the US as a proportion of China's total GDP
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. Now this is only one statistic, but it doesn't look like an existential chunk of China's economy to me. Maybe it could cause some sentiment shocks for China's investor class.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
1. This is not a serious proposition.

2. Then again, they are stupid enough to try it.

If they do, and Trump goes ahead with it, that probably is the end of Pax-America.

A 60% tariff, kind of completely nuts, is a total economic retreat from the world.
Unless they have been secretly building supply lines domestically. I don't see this working all it will do is add extra costs and depress spending power of the US. It aint cheap shipping from China to vietnam and mexico for a stickering session(made in x) and from there to the US when you can just throw it on a ship and directly import the goods.
 
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