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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
xypher said:
National antiterror commitee says that they opened criminal case against Prigozhin for coup attempt.

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Prigozhin said that presumably Russian military attacked Wagner's rear camps. Full statement:

I'm sorry, I'm too lazy to fully translate this, so this is DeepL's translation:
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Seriously ffs - Seeing how NAFO trolls on Twitter are cheering on the prospect of a civil war in Russia just made me cringe.

A civil war in Russia is not just like civil war in most other countries. Any civil war in present-day Russia with military factions and PMCs involved would be like the Warload Era of the 1920s - but with nukes at play.

What do you think happens to those Russian nukes in case a full-blown civil war does occur? Any ultranationalist groups or extremist groups who got their hands on any of these unguarded nukes have the potential of making the 9/11 look like teatime.

Putin better makes sure that he has full control of the situation. We don't need another major land war in Eurasia.

In the meantime, Beijing must keep a constant tab on the ongoing development in Moscow.

The only thing that is worse than having to deal with two hostile fronts (WestPac and Himalaya) is having to deal with an additional hostile (or more like unstable) front (Siberia). Just take a look at China's Third Front project of the 1960s and 1970s to see what I meant.

In case anything does go seriously wrong in Moscow, I believe that these three key factors are very essential that China should be prepared to step in, politically and/or militarily:
1. The stability of Siberia and the Russian Far East (and whenever possible, right up to the Urals),
2. The strategic assets of the Russian military (strategic bombers, nuclear-powered submarines and early-warning systems), and
3. Most importantly, the Russian nuclear arsenal.
 
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Maikeru

Maikeru

Major
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Seriously ffs - Seeing how NAFO trolls on Twitter cheer on the prospect of a civil war in Russia just made me cringe.

A civil war in Russia is not just like civil war in most other countries. What do you think happens to those Russian nukes in case a full-blown civil war does occur? Any ultranationalist groups or extremist groups who got their hands on any of these unguarded nukes have the potential of making the 9/11 looks like teatime.

In the meantime, Beijing must keep a tab at the ongoing development in Moscow closely.

The only thing that is worse than having to deal with two hostile fronts (WestPac and Himalaya) is having to deal with an additional hostile (or more like unstable) front (Siberia). Just take a look at China's Third Front project of the 1960s and 1970s to see what I meant.

In case anything does go seriously wrong in Moscow, I believe that these three key factors are very essential that China should be prepared to step in, politically and/or militarily:
1. The stability of Siberia and the Russian Far East,
2. The strategic assets of the Russian military, and
3. Most importantly, the Russian nuclear arsenal.
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Agreed. I also hope whatever diplomatic games of tic-tac-toe that have been going on between Beijing and DC are put aside for the moment and they are talking to each other about the inherent risks in this situation.

Lots of rumours about Putin being ill for a few years now, it's also pretty weak of him to let the likes of Prigozhin and Kadyrov run their own private armies in Russia - you can hardly imagine Stalin allowing that! Even if this attempted coup doesn't succeed I don't see Russia stabilising any time soon.

Of course Ukraine will be taking every advantage of the situation. Right now that's secondary compared to securing the nukes.
 
coolgod

coolgod

Brigadier
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
Seeing how NAFO trolls on Twitter are cheering on the prospect of a civil war in Russia just made me cringe.

A civil war in Russia is not just like civil war in most other countries. Any civil war in present-day Russia with military factions and PMCs involved would be like the Warload Era of the 1920s - but with nukes at play.

What do you think happens to those Russian nukes in case a full-blown civil war does occur? Any ultranationalist groups or extremist groups who got their hands on any of these unguarded nukes have the potential of making the 9/11 looks like teatime.

Putin better makes sure that he has full control of the situation. We don't need another major land war in Eurasia.

In the meantime, Beijing must keep a constant tab on the ongoing development in Moscow.

The only thing that is worse than having to deal with two hostile fronts (WestPac and Himalaya) is having to deal with an additional hostile (or more like unstable) front (Siberia). Just take a look at China's Third Front project of the 1960s and 1970s to see what I meant.

In case anything does go seriously wrong in Moscow, I believe that these three key factors are very essential that China should be prepared to step in, politically and/or militarily:
1. The stability of Siberia and the Russian Far East,
2. The strategic assets of the Russian military, and
3. Most importantly, the Russian nuclear arsenal.
Click to expand...
Relax man, this is all a bait by Russia. Nafo shills are celebrating while Ukrainian forces are getting slaughtered on the front line. It's like no one has read The Art of War before.

All warfare is based on deception.
 
P

pmc

Major
Registered Member
H2O said:
Looks like someone in the Ukrainian government decided making some money is more important than fighting against Russia.
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This is Israel complaining after Putin mentioned that alot of Jews cannot control Zelensky. but if Israel cannot manage West than Putin gave hints of going other way. Russia Jewish population is much smaller now and there scientific contribution is not the same as Soviet times. It was Soviet Jews that modernized West in defeating Japanese in semicon, display tech and software.
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“I have a lot of Jewish friends,” Putin told an annual economic forum in Saint Petersburg. “They say that Zelensky is not Jewish, that he is a disgrace to the Jewish people.”
Putin later noted that Zelensky was “a man with Jewish blood” before adding that “he covers for these freaks, these neo-Nazis, with his actions.”
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the use of word special relationship and receiving a letter like old ways.
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FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Seems like history is repeating itself. Chinese rulers since the medieval era knew that allowing local rulers or popular generals to command personal armies is a bad idea. From the Jin war of the princes to the An Lushan Rebellion to the warlord era of late Qing and early ROC, provincial governors and generals often would launch devastating civil wars. The Tang Empire never recovered from the Anshan rebellion, and that too was started by a popular general. In Russia, like an empire in troubled times, the imperial forces coexist with private ones. Today in Russia both local rulers and popular generals have command of personally loyal forces. This is never a good sign.
 
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A

azn_cyniq

Junior Member
Registered Member
Witchhunter12 said:
Well to my knowledge the U.S. doesn't differentiate its youth job data based on industry they enter into, if someone else can dig around and find a statistic on that shedding light on the issue then that'd be appreciated. Since the main statistic we're using to corroborate job market sentiment is youth unemployment data, I'll just throw it out there that America's currently sits at 7.4%.

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Concurrently replying to @azn_cyniq who pointed out that hiring in FAANG right now is pretty slow and that small to medium sized companies and startups are what's doing the hiring, yes you can talk about how these places pay less and don't have as many perks as FAANG, but the point is they're still hiring and one can still get experience working for them. Yes, there are those affected by the FAANG layoffs who still haven't picked themselves up, but in the end a lot do. Afterall, the Bay Area's total unemployment despite all the layoffs still sits at a low 2.7-3%.

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Back to @LawLeadsToPeace addressing the second link, where if I'm not mistaken you're pointing out once again the fallacy that China's age 16-24 unemployment rate is the way it is due to people that age typically not working, unlike Americans who get jobs in supermarkets at age 16. If you've been following the Economics thread recently there's enough discussion already debunking that, frankly speaking at this point, pure cope theory. But I'll summarize the points here.
  • First the unemployment rate in 2019 before the pandemic and economic crackdowns happened was 10%, no matter the excuses doubling in just 3 years and constantly rising is a massive cause for concern, especially since China's generations are only getting smaller.
  • Two age bracket 16-24, what age do most people graduate from college? 21. So even if most Chinese teenagers and college students don't work part time jobs, that should really only contribute to a youth unemployment of 10%. The extra bump is indeed because of graduation aged youths 21-24, are unable to find work.
  • Three, even if a good chunk of them end up going to grad school that's not an indicator of a healthy job market, because of the additional burdens both the youths and their parents have to take on financially and academically. Not to mention that grad school has always been the pursuit of more elite students and standards will drop if they now become a mandatory next step for an economy where a bachelor's degree might as well be a high school diploma.
  • Just because this is often another cope argument, the argument that Chinese aged 25-30 have an unemployment rate of 5% so that must mean as youngsters get older its easier to find a job. No, those Chinese already found their footing in the job market pre-pandemic and pre-private sector crackdown, if the current cabal of unemployed youngsters when they turn 25 still can't find a job guess what? The next government report on unemployment will see an uptick in the rate for those aged 25-30.
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You're basically saying that the economic situation in the United States is not that bad. I somewhat agree with that. All I'm saying is that the economic situation in the United States is not particularly attractive for Chinese students at the moment. Prior to the downturn, large corporations, FAANG included, offered high salaries and job security, the latter of which is extremely important for people holding work visas. People with work visas cannot be unemployed for more than 90 days or they will be deported. Unfortunately for them, stable employment is far from guaranteed in today's economy. As such, most Chinese students return to China as soon as they graduate. I'm not saying that China's youth unemployment isn't worrying. It is, but due to China's strong economic growth I don't think it'll last. I'm just saying that it would be unwise to abandon the Chinese economy for the American economy in its current inflationary state.
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
coolgod said:
Relax man, this is all a bait by Russia. Nafo shills are celebrating while Ukrainian forces are getting slaughtered on the front line. It's like no one has read The Art of War before.

All warfare is based on deception.
Click to expand...
Things are still somewhat murky and confusing at the moment, so I can't make any judgement.

My comment is mainly based on the possibility of a weak and unstable Russia, especially after Putin steps down. Whether the instability is caused by Wagner PMC or somebody else.

As long as a moderately-powerful China-friendly Russia exists - China's northern borders (and her western borders to a degree) will be secure. Therefore, the stability of Russia is paramount for the security and safety of China.
 
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