What will Marcos do if US decided to launch an attack? order the Phillipines armies to lie down on the tarmac to prevent the US planes to take off or land?
There is many ways and many aspects to this, but the most fundamental question would be what is there right now?
Are there offensive weapons on those bases from the Americans pointed at China right now? The US military wants missiles on these sites, that is a open secret.
This is what I am saying.
When there are actual US missiles on Philippines bases, then they will be attacked and annihilated, in case that becomes involved in a war with China.
Until then, the game is different.
So I would say we need to see some offensive weapons there on the Philippines base, before CCP turns up the hostility.
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Now, this is what I really think, and it was something I read on the internet.
Remember when China invaded Vietnam under Deng's orders.
A similar situation can happen here, we just need another Vietnam candidate, and today those would be Australia, Canada, or the Philippines.
China should create some sort of major military incident with one of those candidates,, and just see how everyone responds.
If they want to fuck around, let's fuck around, you know.
But, there are two problems with this, arriving at this goal for the CCP.
1) Those vassal are not completely dumb. They remember what happened to Vietnam. It was abandoned by the Soviets, like how the Americans abandoned it.
2) Those vassal kind of know they are in the crosshairs of such a scenario, and will be far more cautious. That would deny the opportunity for China to come down hard on one of them.
Some Australian commentators thought Australia was going to be the Vietnam example. But the new leader kind of improving relations with China, so they are out as a candidate for now.
Canada is kind of clueless, not what to do with them. That leaves the prime candidate the Philippines.
Currently if the reports are to believed, China Coast Guard and paramilitary boats number over 100 in sensitive areas in the South China Sea near the Philippines. Seems to me, they are ready to start the dredging to create more islands.
Those islands, the current ones, and hopefully new ones, will be very important if Philippines get involved in a Taiwan war. Those island are big, and heavily defended. Those islands will launch the attacks on Philippines bases to annihilate them.
Marcos Jr is not that dumb. He's knows what is going on, and he knows he does not have a strong hand. He wants the Americans to counterbalance the Chinese on the South China Sea issue, but the Americans are only interested in the Taiwan card.
So, that is how I see the game now, and how it could evolve.
China Coast Guard today is openly bullying the much small Philippines Coast Guard, and the CCP absolutely don't give a shit about that. They want it to happen.
I personally suspect they want the the Americans to show up in the South China Sea to defend the Philippines from the bullying.
We all saw the recent pictures of those incidents, and there were more than one, and probably be a few more soon.