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solarz

solarz

Brigadier
ZeEa5KPul said:
I think more important than any immediate assistance is China providing the means by which Russia can sustainably prosecute its war. Russia is transitioning to a war economy and I expect the percentage of GDP Russia spends on defense this year will substantially increase. China can do much to help this transition along, like provide construction equipment for new plants, the CNC machines that go into those plants, and sophisticated articles like semiconductors that Russia can't produce for itself. This is already happening to some degree, but I'd like to see it increase dramatically.

There are two problems with direct assistance (three actually - taking America's hallucinations seriously being the third): First and foremost, it draws down China's own stocks which goes against a primary interest in this war, namely drawing down NATO's stocks. Second, it goes against China's diplomatic stand for peace and against NATO's role in this war. Yes, China's diplomatic statements should be taken seriously and China condemning certain behaviours means it won't behave similarly.
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Well said.

So many posters on the one hand scoff at NATO's wunderwaffes, yet at the same time seem to believe China can offer weapons that can achieve equally miraculous results.

No, the most effective and pragmatic way China can support Russia is by supporting its economy. This is a long grind and it's going to come down to which side has the stronger economy.
 
S

sheogorath

Major
Registered Member
solarz said:
many posters on the one hand scoff at NATO's wunderwaffes, yet at the same time seem to believe China can offer weapons that can achieve equally miraculous result
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Is not that Chinese equipment are wunderwaffen on their own but more about the fact that they are further along in deploying equipment with network centric capabilities than Russia will ever be in the medium term and the capacity to produce it in crazy quantities
 
H

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
Sinnavuuty said:
The T-90M, T-80VM and T-72B3M are powerful tanks, with excellent guns, their 3BM59/60 - T-90M should receive the T-14 gun to fire 3BM69/70 - and good armor, the What they really need is a good APS to protect against missiles and rockets, the main killer of Russian tanks in Ukraine.
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The main killer on the front is artillery, for both sides. This is true for armored vehicles as well.

solarz said:
Well said.

So many posters on the one hand scoff at NATO's wunderwaffes, yet at the same time seem to believe China can offer weapons that can achieve equally miraculous results.

No, the most effective and pragmatic way China can support Russia is by supporting its economy. This is a long grind and it's going to come down to which side has the stronger economy.
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You can generate effective results by providing new capabilities and battlefield effects.

US ISR and HIMARS didn't win the war for Ukraine. At least not yet. But, it has generates significant changes on the battlefield, and caused a lot of hardship for Russians.

There is plenty of aid and "miracle weapons" that can achieve the same for Russia. I'm curious to see if China is really willing to take that step, and to "stick it" to United States. It would be a powerful response to U.S. showboating with sanctions on China/Russia, in my opinion.
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
ZeEa5KPul said:
I think more important than any immediate assistance is China providing the means by which Russia can sustainably prosecute its war. Russia is transitioning to a war economy and I expect the percentage of GDP Russia spends on defense this year will substantially increase. China can do much to help this transition along, like provide construction equipment for new plants, the CNC machines that go into those plants, and sophisticated articles like semiconductors that Russia can't produce for itself. This is already happening to some degree, but I'd like to see it increase dramatically.

There are two problems with direct assistance (three actually - taking America's hallucinations seriously being the third): First and foremost, it draws down China's own stocks which goes against a primary interest in this war, namely drawing down NATO's stocks. Second, it goes against China's diplomatic stand for peace and against NATO's role in this war. Yes, China's diplomatic statements should be taken seriously and China condemning certain behaviours means it won't behave similarly.
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I agree with your first point, but don't think existing stockpiles is an issue. China has the ability to scale up production like no other country in the world. Look at the response to COVID. WW2 wasn't won by the country that had the biggest quantity of equipment at the start of the war, pre-war stockpiles quickly became a non factor. It was the rate of production and attrition.

If China leverages even a modest amount of its existing manufacturing capabilities to support Russia, the entire western world will be forced into a wartime economy to support the Ukraine (or whoever is next).
 
A

Abominable

Major
Registered Member
solarz said:
Well said.

So many posters on the one hand scoff at NATO's wunderwaffes, yet at the same time seem to believe China can offer weapons that can achieve equally miraculous results.

No, the most effective and pragmatic way China can support Russia is by supporting its economy. This is a long grind and it's going to come down to which side has the stronger economy.
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You're ignoring the fact everything the west provides is effectively vetted by the Russians before being given to the Ukraine. There are plenty of platforms that theoretically could change the tide for the Ukraine - e.g. F-35s/F-22s, longer range standoff missiles, tanks in significant numbers, etc. But if Russia found themselves in a losing position they would just resort to nukes.

China isn't under any such restrictions other than self imposed ones as the Ukraine isn't a nuclear power.

Plus the deficiencies the Russians have aren't anywhere near as bad as the Ukrainians, so the gaps are much easier to plug.
 
P

pmc

Major
Registered Member
BoraTas said:
Taiwan is at the early level of Ukrainization. By Ukrainization I mean the development of a reactionary identity and radicalization around it.
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I dont think there is any comparison . Ukrainians are farming, Coal, Steel, minerals, mechanical industries. these people not same as some one with much more education and skill development.
and Ukraine is unique case that it didnot made much progress after 1980s this long stagnation have impacted the society.

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The Ukrainian elites wasted their time hiding their corruption and delusions of grandeur behind stories that they were playing some big game with the US, Russia, Europe, China... After all, Ukraine emerged from the Soviet economic world in a better shape than us, while before last year's invasion it had GDP four times smaller than Poland. Interview with Radoslaw Sikorski.
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Turkey also too intertwined itself with Ukraine. it will be hard to know to which way the corrupting influencing but recent event reveal some thing about Turkey.

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BRUSSELS, 31. JAN 2005, 09:57
The political parties of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayip Erdogan and of Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko have received observer status within the centre-right European People's Party.
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Ukraine got alot of funding, visa free travel to Europe for such low income country (the more people you see near you the more they will lobby). The decline of Europe is partly associated with Ukraine. as Ukraine took too much time of Germanic establishment over past decades. they could not steer Europe into new tech fields.
This VDA survey. the same labor shortage and lack of skills. where are those Ukrainians to help out?
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Around nine out of ten companies (88 percent) consider Germany to be internationally uncompetitive in terms of energy costs, labor and tax burden
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A

Atomicfrog

Major
Registered Member
Abominable said:
Even a relatively small amount of support could have a snowball effect. Give Russians effective SEAD and it paves the way for the heavy bombers to fly over the Ukraine unobstructed.
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Don't know where the redline is for China support. Just selling needed material and buying from Russia is life saver.

If China just give them unlimited artillery ammo, a fleet of new logistic trucks and remote demining vehicules it will be a huge help. If you had UCAV on the pile it could enhance the situation a lot for Russia side.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
Abominable said:
You're ignoring the fact everything the west provides is effectively vetted by the Russians before being given to the Ukraine. There are plenty of platforms that theoretically could change the tide for the Ukraine - e.g. F-35s/F-22s, longer range standoff missiles, tanks in significant numbers, etc. But if Russia found themselves in a losing position they would just resort to nukes.

China isn't under any such restrictions other than self imposed ones as the Ukraine isn't a nuclear power.

Plus the deficiencies the Russians have aren't anywhere near as bad as the Ukrainians, so the gaps are much easier to plug.
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Russia is perfectly capable of plugging those gaps themselves, provided they have enough time and resources, and that's what China should provide behind the scene.

China's priority is Taiwan. As long as the US is busy with the Ukraine War, it serves China's interests. Russia is in no danger of failing, so giving them weapons to, hypothetically, defeat Ukraine faster does nothing to serve China's strategic interests.
 
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