This 360 degree talk reminds so much about my younger years being a fervent console warrior in the xbox 360 camp...
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- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Not just ISR drones, but the full catalog from man portable suicide drones to every flavour of loitering munitions imaginable to full stealth strike drones. And those won’t be provided in the token numbers that the west has supplied armies, rather in true industrial quantities that the Russians would be able to use loitering munitions like they currently use Grads.
Unlike the Russians, who allowed the impressive soviet logistics and support vehicle arsenals to simply rot away in storage, the PLA not only massively invested to build up its own vast and comprehensive support vehicle ecosystem to rival and vastly surpass that of the USSR. Modern day PLA rapid de-mining, road building and river crossing capacities alone would fundamentally change the nature of the war by allowing the Russians to quickly bypass the most fortified Ukrainian positions and rapidly flank them.
PLA EW, jamming and hard kill capabilities will vastly degrade Ukrainian NATO ISR capabilities without needing to shoot down manned NATO assets and allow massed armour formations to move without being instantly discovered by enemy recon drones and deleted by artillery.
Speaking of artillery, PLA systems are far more advanced than most Russian systems and able to rapidly shoot and scoot and with their digital fire control and smart munitions, they can hit just as, if not more accurately than Ukraine’s NATO systems, but have the numbers and volume of fires of Russia’s artillery. PLA counter battery capabilities are also far more advanced and organic to their artillery units.
The area where the Chinese can help the Russians most is in the air, but that is also the area where the Russians will need the most training to take full advantage of all the new modern systems and weapons China could provide. But modern self defence pods and stand-off PGMs should be able to be used by the Russians easily and quickly enough.
But to be honest, most of the above are overkill. All China needs to do is open the floodgates on laser guided artillery rounds for the Russians and get DJI to slap a military grade targeting laser on an appropriately sized drone and send those en mass and that alone will be enough to completely turn the tide of the way in Russia’s favour.
Hell, just the PLA giving Russia all the Intel Chinese military satellites picks up would be a total game changer for the Russians.
What's stopping US from literally fabricating or making-up shit about Chinese lethal aid, if it truly wanted to sanction China? (e.g., "OMG, these crashed made-in-China lethal attack drones has Chinese characters in the source codes! It even has a hint of Guangdong accent in the Chinese characters, so came from Unit GZ101 hacking unit in Guangzhou. CHINA BADD!!!!")
Like they can literally make up anything.
However, by threatening China publically, it was affirming what we already knew: China wasn't going to send any obvious overt lethal aid, only dual-use purpose that US cannot conclusively prove originated from China, and if they really wanted to, they can lie and fabricate the origin anyways, like they do with Xinjiang and all just to smear China.
Like they can literally make up anything.
However, by threatening China publically, it was affirming what we already knew: China wasn't going to send any obvious overt lethal aid, only dual-use purpose that US cannot conclusively prove originated from China, and if they really wanted to, they can lie and fabricate the origin anyways, like they do with Xinjiang and all just to smear China.
They can conclusively prove it originated from China. Just need to find any random Russian soldier willing to leak some closer pictures or capture some of it from a cache themselves.
But will they? No. Because they can't do anything about it anyways.
Why bribe a random Russian soldiers when you use photoshop to manipulate images and amplify it with US-controlled media until lies becomes "facts" (e.g., Xinjiang detention camp "leak photos")?
But I agree with you, they are unwilling to sanction anyways. It's all bluster and posturing.
In addition to what they have already said about China's ISR assets, what the Russians would most need that the Chinese would have to offer would be this:
The Chinese have already offered a version of it for export in the VT-4. The Arena-M, even ready, will not protect against the Javelin's Top-Attack and I don't like the T-14's solution.
The T-90M, T-80VM and T-72B3M are powerful tanks, with excellent guns, their 3BM59/60 - T-90M should receive the T-14 gun to fire 3BM69/70 - and good armor, the What they really need is a good APS to protect against missiles and rockets, the main killer of Russian tanks in Ukraine.
This would bring equality between NATO tanks, which will be equipped with an APS that I'm not a big fan of either, but it's effective: Trophy. I like Elbit's solution much better, Iron Fist.
Even a relatively small amount of support could have a snowball effect. Give Russians effective SEAD and it paves the way for the heavy bombers to fly over the Ukraine unobstructed.
I think more important than any immediate assistance is China providing the means by which Russia can sustainably prosecute its war. Russia is transitioning to a war economy and I expect the percentage of GDP Russia spends on defense this year will substantially increase. China can do much to help this transition along, like provide construction equipment for new plants, the CNC machines that go into those plants, and sophisticated articles like semiconductors that Russia can't produce for itself. This is already happening to some degree, but I'd like to see it increase dramatically.
There are two problems with direct assistance (three actually - taking America's hallucinations seriously being the third): First and foremost, it draws down China's own stocks which goes against a primary interest in this war, namely drawing down NATO's stocks. Second, it goes against China's diplomatic stand for peace and against NATO's role in this war. Yes, China's diplomatic statements should be taken seriously and China condemning certain behaviours means it won't behave similarly.
There are two problems with direct assistance (three actually - taking America's hallucinations seriously being the third): First and foremost, it draws down China's own stocks which goes against a primary interest in this war, namely drawing down NATO's stocks. Second, it goes against China's diplomatic stand for peace and against NATO's role in this war. Yes, China's diplomatic statements should be taken seriously and China condemning certain behaviours means it won't behave similarly.
Most of that isn't just easily gonna be achieved by just giving equipment and arms though.
Afterall the training, use etc. of them isn't that trivial (time to achieve competence in them)
Except maybe the last 2 paragraphs, which would definitely help Russia a lot, but I don't think they would achieve a fast victory with that help though (likely 3 months+ needed? Guess it depends a lot on how attritted Ukraine is)