Miscellaneous News

BoraTas said:

Yes. Exactly.

The other problem is credibility. China claims Taiwan as its territory but has zero control over that territory. Chinese president can't visit it. Other nations' politicians are visiting it, walking over all the promises they made in the past. That is not a good look for a country which is supposed to become a geopolitical pole, you know. I'd have serious concerns about China's power and its will to use it if I was a 3rd country. This superpower has a province under separatist control.

Then there is the de-sinicization. A very good chunk of the Taiwanese youth doesn't identify as Chinese at any level. Ask Chinese-origin people in Malaysia, Singapore, the US and Europe and they will say they are ethnically Chinese. Taiwanese youth don't identify as even ethnic Chinese.

I also believe the balance of power will stop changing fast around 2028 or so. The US is switching to an asymmetric doctrine. Militarized islands, austere bases, SAMs, SSMs, AShMs on trucks, etc... Japan and Taiwan will modernize from a low base etc. I don't think there is any point in waiting after that.

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Overbom said:

The biggest problem is that Taiwan is China's diplomatic and strategic black hole which saps all of its energy

Imagine if China didn't have the problem with dealing with Taiwan, how much more freely it could operate in the international arena. It spends tremendous diplomatic capital every year when dealing with the Taiwan problem, imagine all that diplomatic capital invested somewhere else

This is also why the US is interested in using Taiwan to distract China from seriously challenging it in other areas

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I still can't tell if Taiwan is China's "red line" or a GIGANTIC red herring. Like, with the way they parade around the "One China" policy everywhere, or very deliberately tell the US (which we all know has the impulse control of a toddler) "don't do this, this, and this, here, I've even made a bullet pointed list things I don't want you to do and exactly how to do them". Then they let small states like Lithuania troll them, and make a big deal to win over inconsequential Latin American nations on Taiwan. "Look, here's my weak spot. Guys, this is my weak spot, if you want to hurt me, hit right here".

I understand there are merits to keeping Taiwan from international political recognition, but the actual security threats a small island presents are very low to the world's largest navy. However, it is perfect bait for the US, for whom proxy war is their modus operandi. It's almost as if this whole scenario was hand-crafted for them. "Keep your tunnel vision on Taiwan and Taiwanese semiconductors , definitely don't mind the alliances we're building in Eurasia+Oceania or our quantum leaps". In this sense, I'd say the Taiwan issue does give China diplomatic freedom, as well as control over escalation methods and ladder.

I also don't believe that PRC needs immediate reunification for internal purposes (projection from the West again). China isn't like the US, their people are not the hawkish warmongering type, and they have faith in their government to execute long-term plans. PRC could just say "we'll handle the reunification issue when we are good and ready, don't worry", and I feel like people wouldn't mind. 5, 10, 20 years, they are the blink of an eye in Chinese history. The public will be happy as long as economic growth continues and common prosperity is realized.

We're living in US' brezhnev years. They don't have anything left to leverage except isolating themselves more and threatening armed conflict using the massive military they built up in the past.

There is undoubtedly danger, but war between 2 nuclear superpowers might not be a certainty either.

I think China's current strategy is to instigate proxy wars that will ensure that direct invasion of the East by the West will not happen.

Many among the most militarist and nationalist Western officials that seek direct war with China have lamented that whenever America has a chance to "pivot to Asia", something in the middle east and now in Europe always ends up distracting them.

There is never such a thing as a coincidence. China is behind an entire generation of western, eastern and third world elite due to them driving global demand and bailing out the world fiscally in 2008. The influence of MSS is often ignored or invisible, because the best of intelligence agencies do their work in secrecy.

Going forward, expect more "coincidences" that happen to hurt west friendly interests and force US to respond.

Just take the latest happening in India for example. US thought they had the upper hand in influencing India. Suddenly, a group of flaky western looking, internationalist investors, acquire data that will force India to choose between saving Modi's closest oligarch and going into recession, or accept severe humiliation and try to save the economy.

Western bankers, being driven by greed, cannot resist using such data to enrich themselves. Its childs play to manipulate such internationalist and parasitic bankers. And in such groups, there is always a sizeable minority if not majority that became bankers because of the China connection.

Indians see their economy being attacked by westerners. Western oligarchs are being played against Indian oligarchs, in a similar way to how west friendly Russian oligarchs were played by the Ukraine war. A wedge is being driven in, causing a widening opening through more opportunities may arise, perhaps culminating in a new front being opened against the west.

Expect more "coincidences".

Biscuits said:

We're living in US' brezhnev years. They don't have anything left to leverage except isolating themselves more and threatening armed conflict using the massive military they built up in the past.

There is undoubtedly danger, but war between 2 nuclear superpowers might not be a certainty either.

I think China's current strategy is to instigate proxy wars that will ensure that direct invasion of the East by the West will not happen.

Many among the most militarist and nationalist Western officials that seek direct war with China have lamented that whenever America has a chance to "pivot to Asia", something in the middle east and now in Europe always ends up distracting them.

There is never such a thing as a coincidence. China is behind an entire generation of western, eastern and third world elite due to them driving global demand and bailing out the world fiscally in 2008. The influence of MSS is often ignored or invisible, because the best of intelligence agencies do their work in secrecy.

Going forward, expect more "coincidences" that happen to hurt west friendly interests and force US to respond.

Just take the latest happening in India for example. US thought they had the upper hand in influencing India. Suddenly, a group of flaky western looking, internationalist investors, acquire data that will force India to choose between saving Modi's closest oligarch and going into recession, or accept severe humiliation and try to save the economy.

Western bankers, being driven by greed, cannot resist using such data to enrich themselves. Its childs play to manipulate such internationalist and parasitic bankers. And in such groups, there is always a sizeable minority if not majority that became bankers because of the China connection.

Indians see their economy being attacked by westerners. Western oligarchs are being played against Indian oligarchs, in a similar way to how west friendly Russian oligarchs were played by the Ukraine war. A wedge is being driven in, causing a widening opening through more opportunities may arise, perhaps culminating in a new front being opened against the west.

Expect more "coincidences".

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Bro who initiated the BRI? and what goal is it design to achieved. Without the Russian on board this policy is a failure so how come Xi is able to convinced Putin. If we follow the timeline Xi laid out the planned in 2013 as a way to deleveraged itself against the US, so in a way the Chinese are decoupling, luck maybe on Chinese side when Ukraine Maidan happen in 2014, a year after Xi conceptualize his vision BUT I think there is a synergy as the Russian Eurasian Economic union jive with that of BRI, with added bonus of Chinese financial resource and industrial capacity. So Xi courted Putin and western arrogances and hubris played a part for the marriage to happen.

“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025," said Gen. Mike Minihan in a memo sent to the officers he commands and obtained by NBC News.

han1289 said:

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“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025," said Gen. Mike Minihan in a memo sent to the officers he commands and obtained by NBC News.

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I'm reading the same story from a different site:


Very interesting development indeed.

han1289 said:

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“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me will fight in 2025," said Gen. Mike Minihan in a memo sent to the officers he commands and obtained by NBC News.

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pre 2022 i though so too 2024~2025, but given with how much western material is needed to keep Ukrainians somewhat combat ready against Russia. Im not sure the NATO is even ready to handle the way harder supply lines to Taiwan given its an island. I wouldn't be surprised if they delay it 3~4 years.

Good question

Overbom said:

The biggest problem is that Taiwan is China's diplomatic and strategic black hole which saps all of its energy

Imagine if China didn't have the problem with dealing with Taiwan, how much more freely it could operate in the international arena. It spends tremendous diplomatic capital every year when dealing with the Taiwan problem, imagine all that diplomatic capital invested somewhere else

This is also why the US is interested in using Taiwan to distract China from seriously challenging it in other areas

Click to expand...

I would argue that absent the Taiwan issue, that China would be far LESS prepared for US confrontation. It wasn't until the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis that China decisively pivoted. It's this singular core issue that has been the main impetus behind China's comprehensive military modernization and development. Without Taiwan, China would have focused almost entirely on the mainland. Instead, China has been literally forced into expanding its "security", not just military, envelope in all realms to counter what is obviously a containment strategy. I'm not saying they wouldn't have developed long-range missiles and plans to extend the kill zone to the 2nd island chain or that the Belt & Road and now evolving non-Western financial order would appear. What I'm saying is, it would have been a far lower priority and both the navy, air force, sanctionable technologies, sanctionable resources, etc, would have been no where near where they are today.

Everybody knows that the Anglo-Americans would enforce not just trade sanctions but military blockades of vulnerable resources and technologies. This has had an enormous impact on China's self-sufficiency in food, natural resources, technologies and dramatically accelerated China's evolution in these directions as a result. China is by far the world's largest market. Once they attain anything approaching self-sufficiency, they attain sovereign global pricing power and market power unrivaled by any potential economic bloc, even including a hypothetical economic bloc composed of the entire OECD combined.

So, this isn't just about military strength but also how it has affected China's comprehensive development in every area we can imagine. China's leadership would have never foreseen the current level of Anglo-American dysfunction without it rearing its head in the early days when China was 3 magnitudes weaker. Imagine what the Western alliance could do to China now if it weren't for Taiwan in the 1990s to counter the Chinese liberals who were totally dominant at that time.

Bellum_Romanum said:

A US state asked for evidence to ban TikTok. The FBI offered none
Emails show officials in the state of Connecticut opted not to ban the Chinese-owned app after consulting with the FBI.

When Maryland became the latest US state to ban the use of TikTok on government devices and networks last month, cybersecurity officials in the state of Connecticut turned to the FBI for guidance.

They wanted to know if the FBI had additional information to support a ban in their state amid dire warnings by the law enforcement agency’s leadership and Republican governors that the Chinese-owned app posed serious threats to privacy and national security.

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Published On 26 Jan 202326 Jan 2023

When Maryland became the latest US state to ban the use of TikTok on government devices and networks last month, cybersecurity officials in the state of Connecticut turned to the FBI for guidance.

They wanted to know if the FBI had additional information to support a ban in their state amid dire warnings by the law enforcement agency’s leadership and Republican governors that the Chinese-owned app posed serious threats to privacy and national security.

“Good morning gentlemen. We’re looking for any recommendations on TikTok after Maryland moved to ‘ban’ its use,” Jeff Brown, the chief information security officer for Connecticut, said in an email to a contact at the FBI on December 7.

“Our logic is captured below, but we’d be interested in your thoughts. Appreciate any feedback,” Brown said in the email, which was also sent to contacts at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Department of Homeland Security. Brown included in his message an email chain in which he and Mark Raymond, Connecticut’s chief information officer (CIO), expressed agreement that Maryland’s ban appeared to be a case of “overreach”. Offered a chance to provide additional information in support of a ban, the FBI contact declined.

“I asked one of my analysts to reach out to our HQ,” the FBI agent, who leads a team in Connecticut focused on cybercrime, said in an email to Brown.

“She emailed me towards the end of the day to say that she couldn’t find evidence that we had any additional information to share.”

Maryland and other states that had announced TikTok bans appeared to have “based their decisions on news reports and other open source information about China in general, not specific to Tik Tok,” the FBI agent quoted his analyst as saying.

“Sorry we don’t have more to offer,” the FBI agent said.

The CISA contact, a cybersecurity adviser for Connecticut, told Brown he had “no additional” information and would recommend deferring to the guidance of the FBI.

Al Jazeera obtained the Connecticut state government emails, along with emails from several other state governments, after submitting public records requests with the 50 US states and the District of Columbia.

Raymond, the Connecticut CIO, ultimately determined that the risk of TikTok was “low” based on the fact that, among other criteria, he had received no information suggesting Tiktok had misused data, concerns about the app appeared to have nothing to do with the platform itself, and a ban could “drive additional Chinese cyber activity and interest in Connecticut.”

He recommended that Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont, a Democrat, “take no action at this time” but continue to monitor the situation.

When contacted by Al Jazeera for comment, Raymond said protecting state networks is an “extremely high priority for us”.

“We regularly review security threats against the state and act as warranted,” he said. “We are supportive of national action on topics that may threaten our national security and continue to work with all our partners on the most appropriate recommendations for our state.

The episode in Connecticut, which has not been previously reported, stands in contrast to the dire public warnings FBI Director Christopher Wray has made about TikTok.

Wray has repeatedly warned that China could use TikTok to “manipulate content” to carry out influence operations and steal personal data for espionage purposes.

“All of these things are in the hands of a government that doesn’t share our values, and that has a mission that’s very much at odds with what’s in the best interests of the United States,” Wray told a University of Michigan event last month. “That should concern us.”

In response to a request for comment, the FBI National Press Office directed Al Jazeera to past comments by Wray in which he said the agency is advising the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) amid its discussions with TikTok on ways to address national security fears and expressed concern about the Chinese government forcing companies to hand over sensitive data.

TikTok’s parent company ByteDance, which has its headquarters in Beijing and is incorporated in the Cayman Islands, argues that the FBI’s warnings about the app relate to purely hypothetical concerns and no evidence has been presented of wrongdoing.

ByteDance has long insisted it would never share user data with the Chinese government and says it is working to address hypothetical national security risks as part of a deal it is negotiating with CFIUS.

“As we have said before, these state and university bans are not driven by specific intelligence about TikTok and are driven by misinformation about our company and our service,” TikTok spokeswoman Brooke Oberwetter told Al Jazeera.

“We stand ready to fully brief state and local officials about our comprehensive plan to address national security concerns, plans developed under the oversight of our nation’s top national security agencies.”


They wanted to know if the FBI had additional information to support a ban in their state amid dire warnings by the law enforcement agency’s leadership and Republican governors that the Chinese-owned app posed serious threats to privacy and national security.

“Our logic is captured below, but we’d be interested in your thoughts. Appreciate any feedback,” Brown said in the email, which was also sent to contacts at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and the Department of Homeland Security.

Brown included in his message an email chain in which he and Mark Raymond, Connecticut’s chief information officer (CIO), expressed agreement that Maryland’s ban appeared to be a case of “overreach”.

Offered a chance to provide additional information in support of a ban, the FBI contact declined.


“I asked one of my analysts to reach out to our HQ,” the FBI agent, who leads a team in Connecticut focused on cybercrime, said in an email to Brown.

“She emailed me towards the end of the day to say that she couldn’t find evidence that we had any additional information to share.”

He recommended that Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont, a Democrat, “take no action at this time” but continue to monitor the situation. When contacted by Al Jazeera for comment, Raymond said protecting state networks is an “extremely high priority for us”.

“We regularly review security threats against the state and act as warranted,” he said. “We are supportive of national action on topics that may threaten our national security and continue to work with all our partners on the most appropriate recommendations for our state.

Wray has repeatedly warned that China could use TikTok to “manipulate content” to carry out influence operations and steal personal data for espionage purposes.

“All of these things are in the hands of a government that doesn’t share our values, and that has a mission that’s very much at odds with what’s in the best interests of the United States,” Wray told a University of Michigan event last month. “That should concern us.”

In response to a request for comment, the FBI National Press Office directed Al Jazeera to past comments by Wray in which he said the agency is advising the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) amid its discussions with TikTok on ways to address national security fears and expressed concern about the Chinese government forcing companies to hand over sensitive data.

Even as bans on TikTok gather steam, tech experts — and even some government officials, as in the case of Connecticut — acknowledge there is little technical evidence to justify the level of fear and anxiety the video-streaming platform, one of the world’s most popular apps, has inspired.

Instead, most arguments for restricting the app have rested on broader mistrust of Beijing, including fears the Chinese government could access users’ personal data or manipulate public opinion for nefarious ends.

“We haven’t seen any evidence that TikTok is a greater risk than any other social media platform,” Cliff Lampe, a professor of information at the University of Michigan, told Al Jazeera.

“The sole concern expressed is that its main owner is a Chinese company — even though most TikTok traffic in the US is managed on US servers. The logic is that the Chinese government could importune TikTok for private user data.”

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem claimed the Chinese Communist Party used the app to “manipulate the American people” and said her state would have no part in the “intelligence gathering operations of nations who hate us”.

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Twerking and boob shaking videos are now a matter of national security!