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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Well it's a good lesson that's what you get for kissing ass and forgetting your heritage Besides fundamentals are strong for India it's a nuclear power, self sufficient food wise and has decent industry, fallout is manageable if push come to shove India has enough cards to spoil western gravy train as well
unfortunately, India is only food self sufficient for a very flexible definition of 'food' and 'self sufficient'.

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, Chinese eat 2990 calories.
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.

For comparison,
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ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Can't get their initial investment money out of China, can't cut China's chive and are even having trouble cutting tiny chives because China's BRI is like sticking lengths of green painted rebar in the chive field.
Sorry, I didn't get it. How does BRI serves as the green-painted rebar in the chive field that is preventing the US from cutting the chives?

They're down to doing things like cannibalizing EU, Japan and South Korea.
Since the US has reached fallen to such stages as to cannibalize their very own "allies" to sustain itself (as we are seeing with our very own eyes), I wonder what else would the US be left with once their "allies" have been scrapped clean and hollow?

Then you look at India, it's a big chive ripe for harvesting and it's got no BRI-Yuan connection to make the harvesting harder. Up to now they haven't done it because they figure they need India to counter China, but if they are disappointed with performance of India and see no hope for India to become an alternative to China then the next best thing is to cut down that chive asap and use it to plug the 31 trillion hole.
How big of a magnitude would this be impacting India, in your opinion?
 
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horse

Colonel
Registered Member
It looks increasingly likely coordinated campaigns aimed at destabilizing indian economy from your usual suspects the anglos, the question is what have india done to deserve it? Aren't they the anglos new poster boy, their meatshield and cannon fodder to be used against China?
Or has india refusal to backstab russia is not tolerated anymore?

I don't buy it.

Like, India, is India.

It is self-destabilizing.

Just give it a year or two, then they will have one of those Hindu vs Muslim things where they go on a mutual rampage.

Then perhaps in the following year or two, another mini-war with Pakistan.

Major Indian China confrontations seems to happen more like 5 to 7 year intervals.

So something like this Indian Enron thing, seems to be on time, adhering to some cosmic schedule.

It's fate, they can't fight, what do you do?

Too late to go short.

Just watch it go all the way down.

:cool:
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Since that's the case, realistically speaking, how far do you guys think that this debacle impacting Adani and the Indian economy would go? A major contraction of Adani businesses and operations, but Adani survives? Bankruptcy and collapse of Adani? The Indian economy getting a setback comparable to a major economic recession?

Right now, I'm just wishing that nobody would be able or willing to buy US treasury bonds like how China did during the 2008-2009 GFC.
this is not going to collapse India, but it will severely impact their growth for a few years. Adani group is heavily integrated into the Indian economy in areas ranging from real estate to software to oil/gas. This means that they impact multiple sectors, impact a wide range of the supply chain, and cause disruption to a wide range of customers.

Because of their broad portfolio, they are like an Indian version of zaibatsu or chaebol. Imagine the fallout if Mitsubishi Heavy Industries collapsed for Japan... this is the equivalent for India. Mitsubishi is also only $38 billion market cap after all, yet its collapse would devastate Japan.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I wonder if these coordinated attacks against Adani (and as an extension, the Indian economy) is actually serving as an indirect warning by Washington DC and London that New Delhi better tow their line WRT Russia than going against their wishes, rather than actually trying to kill off Adani and India's economy as a whole?

India is still a useful chesspiece for their ultimate confrontation against China, after all. Besides, I genuinely don't see how the Modi administration would let Adani collapse from this - Adani has gotten pretty intertwined with the Indian government and the Indian economy by this point.

These are indeed warning shots, since these are compromats that obviously took years to create and as was the case with the BBC documentary, would have been held in the proverbial back pocket for years. But their use is not about Russia.

India has been buying Russian oil since the war started, so if they were going to press India over Russian oil, they would have done it months ago.

And to be frank, Russia is a side show to America’s main goal. They don’t really care of India helps Russia, but they will act quickly at any sign that India is softening its hostility towards China. That’s the real red line Washington wants to remind Delhi.
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Sorry, I don't get it. How does BRI serves as the green-painted rebar in the chive field that is preventing the US from cutting the chives?
Because China offers an alternative options in many things that didn't previously exist. Say there's a financial crisis, previously you're screwed and IMF will be at your door in no time telling you they can bail you out, but you have to commercialize your profitable government owned companies because SOE is communism and no good. And of course here are some American funds interested in buying up your SOE on the cheap. Also you need to open your markets to American companies regardless of what effect it will have on domestic industry because capitalism and free market baby.

Nowadays you have AIIB showing up at the same time as IMF saying no no, I offer you a loan with lower interest to get you over the current crisis. You continue to run your country however you like however to pay off the loan in the future I recommend you invest into these infrastructure projects which will greatly improve your GDP once completed. The funds for these infrastructure projects are included in the AIIB package.

Even if you don't take AIIB's offer, the fact that its there means it's that much easier for you to negotiate with IMF.
 
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coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
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Yellen, Liu Avoid Airing Complaints as US-China Tone Warms​

During a scheduled coffee break — according to the US official — the two economy chiefs retreated to one end of the room, accompanied only by translators who were largely unneeded due to Liu’s command of English. After some time, staff members asked the two if the formal session should restart. They were rebuffed, because the private conversation was going so well.

Later, when talks between the delegations reached the stage at which bones of contention were due to be aired, Yellen and Liu told the group that there was no need to do so — because they’d already addressed all the key issues. The Treasury official was unable to relate details about what had been said during the informal portion.

This news a few days ago didn't get much traction. Liu He was later interviewed and said the meeting went very well, you can see his smile on video.
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Assuming Liu He didn't agree to buy more US Treasuries, then how could Liu and Yellen's private conversation have gone so well :cool:? Remember how Yellen kept emphasizing their conversation about debt relief for other countries, besides smearing China with the whole debt trap stuff, it seems like the US actually needed China's coordination on debt restructuring, maybe like which countries shouldn't be bailed out by China.


I'm reminded of this episode of Year Hare Affair which started off with Elephant waving to both scary eyed Rabbit and Eagle, Rabbit and Eagle "negotiating", then end up shaking hands.
 
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