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pmc

Major
Registered Member
Is Japan also included in this ban since Japan implemented the price cap?
No more Sakhalin-2 gas for Japan from Feb?

Russia should do it to punish a vassal.

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Japan is special case due to its highly reliable used and new automobiles.. even the newer highly computerized model is modified.
Russia can get rid of Germanic engineering but i am not sure about Japanese as vehicles from various countries will still be imported. and they need parts and trained mechanics.
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These kind of vehicles are tested by Royals in tough long duration use. Saudi women got it for there first rally.

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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
So, can anyone with knowledge share how the price cap has affected russian exports? Is it effective? If so that's a dangerous new weapon in the west's control.
Look, price controls don't work. They always lead to shortages. When Maduro fixed the price of paper in Venezuela, paper vanished from supermarket shelves. The West put sanctions on shipping of Russian oil above the price cap, so the amount of oil shipped with those ships will decrease or vanish completely. It is as simple as that. Same deal happened with Nixon fixing prices. Producers do not like working below market price. And producers do not work for free or at a loss with no good reason. Less of it all in a conflict like this.
So a certain amount of oil will vanish off the global market. The average price of oil will increase as a result because the other oil producing countries have minimal leeway to increase supply, and might not even want to, OPEC has already manifested itself to be against price caps on oil, and they might try to counter the practice as a matter of principle.
Because the market is now asymmetric and Western countries no longer want to import Russian oil, Russian oil price will go down, and other nations oil price will go up. This basically taxes Western countries energy imports, while countries who balk at the sanctions will pay a lower price. The current sanctions are already pretty close to an embargo. The West will likely try to apply secondary sanctions or do an actual embargo next. But the thing is you cannot replace an oil exporter the size of Saudi Arabia just like that. The non-Western countries will not want their economies to implode without oil to the benefit of wealthy countries. There will be friction that is for sure.

Oil - yes, gas - no, because Russia's largest fields are in Western Siberia and most of the gas is delivered through pipes that go to Europe. Until "Power of Siberia 2" is finished, that gas either has to go to Europe or get wasted.
Russia can export some of the gas via LNG. And the gas is still flowing West via Ukraine, Blue Stream, and Turk Stream.
There might be like 80 bcm on balance they aren't exporting that would have otherwise. I have not looked at the numbers lately.
Power of Siberia 2 is supposed to take care of 50 bcm and the rest will be able to be exported as LNG once more capacity goes up.
Arctic LNG 2 first string will come online in 2023. You will likely see more come online two years after that. And in 2028 we might see Power of Siberia 2. Who knows.

With regards to capital flows from export in 2 years Russia might be exporting 38 bcm or more to China via Power of Siberia. And then there are the possible expansions.

I am not a subject matter expert in upstream petroleum. Is there the possibility of sealing the gas inside the reservoir and not producing it? Just turn the valves off?
It depends a lot on the equipment. Usually, it is economically infeasible to stop production and then restart it. Most of the time excess output is either stored or just simply burned out.
Russia has a huge amount of LNG storage. Several months worth of it. They can fill the storage. And from what I heard they can throttle the output of the gas wells to a degree. They lack a strategic oil reserve thus far, so oil storage is way more limited.

Issue with oil production cuts is that Russia still loses money in that case. Plus Urals is already traded with a significant discount compared to Brent, currently its market price is lower than the $60 "ceiling". The situation was worse at the beginning (when Russian export fell 1.5 mln barrels/day) due to lack of insurers, now the exports are slowly going up but are still lower than before the embargo. However, with China opening up, we can expect an upward trend for the global oil prices which will ultimately test the effectiveness of that "ceiling".
Right. China will start using more oil. While there will be issues shipping Urals because of lack of ships I expect Russia to simply cut production of oil. They will not be selling oil below cost on a situation like this it is as simple as that. In the long run Russia might make pipelines to export more Urals oil into China. As is they already export from Vankor into China to some degree but ESPO is already operating at top capacity.
 
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FriedButter

Major
Registered Member
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Russia hosts high-level Türkiye-Syria meeting​

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu met with his Turkish and Syrian counterparts in Moscow on Wednesday. Türkiye’s defense minister held negotiations with Syria’s defense head, reportedly for the first time since 2011.

Hulusi Akar and Ali Mahmud Abbas, representing Ankara and Damascus, respectively, discussed “ways to resolve the Syrian crisis” and “joint efforts to combat extremist groups in Syria,” as well as possible solutions to the refugee problem, the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement after the meeting.

Both sides said the format was “constructive” and stressed they were interested in continuing the discussions for the sake of stabilizing Syria and the region as a whole, Moscow said.

The agenda was confirmed in a statement issued by the defense ministry in Ankara. Turkish media also noted that this was the first meeting at this level between the neighboring countries since the Syrian conflict began 11 years ago.

First meeting in 11 years and it also involves defence ministries and officials. Could be a sign that Turkey and Syria is negotiating about the Kurds in Northern Syria.
 

baykalov

Senior Member
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ExxonMobil is reportedly suing the European Union over its newly instilled windfall tax on oil and gas producers, arguing that the bloc has overstepped its authority in enacting the measure.

The US-based supermajor will challenge the EU over its authority to impose the tax and its use of emergency powers to secure member states’ approval.

In September European energy ministers voted to impose a “temporary solidarity contribution” on fossil fuel companies to recoup one-third (33%) of excess profits made in 2022 and/or 2023.

Revenues will be handed back to consumers and companies to cushion the impact of high energy bills, and to invest in green energy.

Exxon’s (NYSE:XOM) German and Dutch businesses filed a lawsuit at the European General Court in Luxembourg City on Wednesday, according to reports by the Financial Times.

Casey Norton, a spokesperson for Exxon, said the company recognised high energy costs were “weighing heavily on families and businesses” but argued the levy was “counterproductive” and would “undermine investor confidence, discourage investment and increase reliance on imported energy”.

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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I am not a subject matter expert in upstream petroleum. Is there the possibility of sealing the gas inside the reservoir and not producing it? Just turn the valves off?

You can seal off a well and then restart it.
But it's expensive and the well may not return to previous production.

There's a write up below for a oil well

resilience.org/stories/2020-05-28/shutting-down-oil-wells-a-risky-and-expensive-option/
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
I am pretty sure that Elon Musk will be just another American conservative nutjob figure in 2-3 years. I have no idea why he involved himself with politics when he was universally regarded as a very successful and smart entrepreneur who was pushing the boundaries of tech. Now he is becoming another Tucker Carlson.
successful yes but smart? i only observed Musk selfie with people at FIFA final . he may think as more competent conservative but alot of world leaders lose there stability of mind when they get too close to Arabs . Atlantic slave trade is mentioned but Arab trade not. if some one give slightest hint than there is example of Libyan leader end.
 

Laviduce

Junior Member
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is warning the U.S. against carrying out a "decapitation blow" targeting
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calling it a "threat to physically eliminate the head of the Russian state."

Lavrov made the comments Tuesday in an interview with
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reportedly in reference to an unverified report in September citing an anonymous Pentagon official saying the U.S. was considering such action if Russia ever launched a nuclear strike.

"Washington went the furthest. … Some ‘unnamed officials’ from the Pentagon actually threatened to inflict a ‘decapitation blow’ on the Kremlin, but, in fact, it is a threat to physically eliminate the head of the Russian state," Lavrov said.



IMHO: The neocon/neolib (i.e.: neofascist) regime in Washington DC needs to be crushed as soon as possible for peace to prevail. After so many wars and coups of aggression over the past 20 years without consequences, the world needs to come together to confront this fascist/totalitarian threat to humanity. In the end, the neocon/neolib USA and its heinous neocon/neolib ideology belong right next to Fascist Germany and Fascist Italy, the dustbin of history.

Is China, India, Brazil, and the rest of the TRUE free world taken this far-right threat emanating from this fascist regime serious ?
 
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