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TK3600

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I saw it previously on r/geopolitics and thought it was pretty ridiculous, but after
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just taking the piss with this I thought I better check this shit out. Conclusion is this is highly entertaining piece of... something from RAND. I'll highlight some passages for a feel:







So basically "see it's not that I'm worried about myself or my dog, I'm actually worried about you! He's nukes could be aimed at you!"
Can Canada deter USA by a decapitation strike on NYC then DC?

:rolleyes:
 

GodRektsNoobs

Junior Member
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I saw it previously on r/geopolitics and thought it was pretty ridiculous, but after
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just taking the piss with this I thought I better check this shit out. Conclusion is this is highly entertaining piece of... something from RAND. I'll highlight some passages for a feel:







So basically "see it's not that I'm worried about myself or my dog, I'm actually worried about you! He's nukes could be aimed at you!"
Next, I think RAND should publish an article regarding the possibility of Canada's military capabilities against the US. Thinking about the unthinkable, does the US ever consider the possibility of a War of 1812 redux? Will Washington DC survive this time around? #WeTheNorth #SorryNotSorry
 

Temstar

Brigadier
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What changed Washington’s mind? In part, it was an urgent and confidential back-channel initiative involving former European leaders and senior officials, and ultimately endorsed by the Chinese. Ever since Putin’s 27 February declaration on nuclear readiness, the PLA had also been reaching out through military-to-military (as opposed to diplomatic or political) channels to senior Russian general officers with whom they had made personal contact over years of joint military exercises and military procurement talks. Beijing’s aim was to ensure that even if there were a political decision to use nukes, the Russian army would insist on sticking to its long-standing nuclear military doctrine to use them solely if provoked by attacks on Russian soil. Through these unofficial ‘track two’ contacts, Washington and the PLA agreed – unusually, given a deterioration in relations during the Donald Trump presidency – that if the US stopped the MiG deal, Beijing’s generals would do their best to defuse Putin’s nuclear threat on an operational level. ‘It worked,’ said the Chinese source. ‘The [US] decided that supplying aircraft was a step too far.’
It's talking about that deal to transfer Polish MiG-29 to Ukraine.
What are your gut feelings on this? Do you believe it?
So China tells the US "I wouldn't transfer the Polish MiGs to Ukraine if I were you" and said they will talk to Russians to convince them not to use nukes if US does back out of that deal, and US does it? That's quite the position of strength there.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Nice to see. Although it still remains to be seen if Marcos would heed his calls the same way that Duterte did (and even he backtracked a bit in the latter part of his presidency).
I am too bro and what place are you in? :) Marcos is weak BUT Duterte influence and legacy is too strong for him to ignore so he have to thread very carefully. My take of the situation after the G20 and APEC, the wind is shifting in China Favor, the Collective West and America in particular have shown NO INTEREST in the region BUT to sow chaos, the promises they made are all talk, vaporware!!!! What happen to their much hype and talked BBB3 to counter China BRI? Well Widodo had just showcase the Jakarta to Bandung HSR during the G20 summit while waiting for Brandon to deliver his promise $15 million aid.;)

And besides the US need to show their creed in the region after both APEC and G20 debacle and they know the Philippine can give them an easy win BUT they bungled it by giving the job to Kamala instead of Brandon, that for me is a sign that our interest and that of America are not aligned (economic vs security).
So far I am not optimistic as I can see the construction of the EDCA base near where I live.
EDCA is good for the Philippines because we gain an extra military infrastructure at US expense at the same time DUTERTE had gain us Filipino a great leverage by instituting that VFA can be revoke by presidential degree. See what the MSM didn't mention we have the power to invoke both agreement null and void by executive action. That is what the American want to renegotiate BUT our constitution forbade anymore concession beyond the 2 agreement which is legally controversial (railroad by Former CJ Senero an Aquino appointee) and can be challenge at court of law IF pursued.
 

Biscuits

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It's talking about that deal to transfer Polish MiG-29 to Ukraine.
What are your gut feelings on this? Do you believe it?
So China tells the US "I wouldn't transfer the Polish MiGs to Ukraine if I were you" and said they will talk to Russians to convince them not to use nukes if US does back out of that deal, and US does it? That's quite the position of strength there.
I don't think China would ever allow Russia in the first place to use nukes, except if Russia was nuked first.

You can see that China is not expecting a nuclear war because clearly they're still building heavily on civilian stuff. If they knew Moscow plans to start one and were going to green light it, they'd focus on shelters.

How do they stop Russia from going nuclear? If things go badly for Russia, they will just give Putin whatever he needs to turn the tide, which will be more effective than anything short of strategic nuclear weapons.
 

Overbom

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It's talking about that deal to transfer Polish MiG-29 to Ukraine.
What are your gut feelings on this? Do you believe it?
So China tells the US "I wouldn't transfer the Polish MiGs to Ukraine if I were you" and said they will talk to Russians to convince them not to use nukes if US does back out of that deal, and US does it? That's quite the position of strength there.
Leaning towards its true or partial true. Given my experience on reading Western propaganda, this gives way too many details in contrast to other propaganda pieces. Given Western hostility, I would say partial truth. After all, the best lie is always partial truth
 

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think China would ever allow Russia in the first place to use nukes, except if Russia was nuked first.

You can see that China is not expecting a nuclear war because clearly they're still building heavily on civilian stuff. If they knew Moscow plans to start one and were going to green light it, they'd focus on shelters.

How do they stop Russia from going nuclear? If things go badly for Russia, they will just give Putin whatever he needs to turn the tide, which will be more effective than anything short of strategic nuclear weapons.
That's what I think too. By my calculation the chances of Russia using nukes in Ukraine was/is remote, so PLA telling them not to drop the bomb would just get a shrug and "okay sure?" response. If they're really going to do it I don't think China can actually talk them out of it anyway.

Which then means US gave up on that MiG-29 deal for very little in return? I get that a handful of more Polish MiG-29 wouldn't change much on the battlefield either but still. If this news is true perhaps US were very rattled by Putin waving the nuclear stick early on and really thought he was going to do it.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Western elites know Russian nuclear doctrine, Russia itself has said read our damn nuclear doctrine.
Still it is the west with the US first strike doctrine and the constant nuclear mainstream media stories over the summer of this year that has been normalising the usage of nuclear weapons.

At this date the only one that needs nukes is Ukraine not Russia to turn the tide of the war.
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
That's what I think too. By my calculation the chances of Russia using nukes in Ukraine was/is remote, so PLA telling them not to drop the bomb would just get a shrug and "okay sure?" response. If they're really going to do it I don't think China can actually talk them out of it anyway.

Which then means US gave up on that MiG-29 deal for very little in return? I get that a handful of more Polish MiG-29 wouldn't change much on the battlefield either but still. If this news is true perhaps US were very rattled by Putin waving the nuclear stick early on and really thought he was going to do it.
The whole article seems like a weird propaganda piece, maybe to promote the author's book. Adding China to the mix would definitely entice more readers and emphasize Biden's diplomacy during this whole war.
Owen Matthews writes about Russia for The Spectator. His latest book Overreach, a history of the origins of the Russo-Ukrainian war, will be published by HarperCollins in November
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
View attachment 102388
Says from her probably well lighten and comfortable heated apartment in some nice European city probably using her 1 Gbps internet connection.

Of course she will never advocate for reasonable negotiations to end the war as soon as possible, she looks like more than please to use her own fellow citizens as cannon fodder for the power interest of some groups that are not even Ukrainian.
Just saying.

So it’s just ‘make electricity with love’ bullshit message repackaged with slightly different wording.

That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you spot centrally co-ordinated global interference operations - where completely different and unrelated parties from different parts of the world all repeat the same batshit crazy illogical mouth diarrhoea that just so happens to all be coined by the same global leading regime change exporter.
 
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