Tbh in my personal opinion so as not to underestimate the enemy, I'd still assume US platforms are able to trade 1 to 1 with PLA ones, that US has equal level ISR and no assymetric factors will come into play. Hence I see an American invasion as a "close call" scenario that can go either way.
But consider that despite everything US said, their proxy wars and so on, the CPC isn't blind or deaf and they know it. Still, no military budget increase on the table.
So it seems for whatever reason, they think US is not an existential threat.
Going into the leadership's perspective, there might be a few underrated advantages that could be reasons for why they believe America does not warrant a budget increase.
1. There is a vast difference in logistics capability and construction capability.
2. China's economy is (far) more geared towards mobilisation and total war.
3. There is an advantage in drone tech and a huge advantage in manufacturing capability.
The popular assumption is that China will fight US like ww2 naval and air battles only with longer range weapons. In that context, there might not be enough numerically.
But US and China sit at a syzygy between the 3rd and 4th industrial revolution, with China representing the latter and US mostly being confined to the former.
As an example, maybe China will use the same capability that can build modern hospitals in 2 weeks to build/convert 5G facilities that pump out satnav drone systems. They can make a 100k+ sized swarm that will seek out every energy substation of any US associated facility. And while the swarm is attacking, have ISR drones mixed that in that use CEC to guide hypersonic missiles from manned platforms on any survivors.
In the current Zhuhai expo something of a lot of interest to me is that tiny, truck launched suicide drones from China can be outfitted with no payload, but ability to paint target for other platforms.
