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Abominable

Major
Registered Member
99% of the west including all western politicians seriously believe this. Putin is a deranged and unstable dictator except when it comes to nukes where he suddenly becomes a pacifist.

I don't see how this conflict doesn't end with a nuclear conflict between America and Russia. America is finished either way with Trumpists and the Democrats at each others throats. Maybe the establishment wants to go out in a nuclear fire rather than a long and bloody civil war?
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
20 years has passed so already the collective memory of the Kosovo war has disappeared.

It's a little ridiculous to hear statements that happened earlier this year like "You can never imagine a war in Europe!" (Even discounting Kosovo, we all know wars NEVER happen in Europe!)

Swap Albanians with Eastern Ukrainians, NATO with Russia and you have the same scenario playing out, but since you are on the receiving end of this kind of BS, you are upset.

Always good at dishing it out, but not so much at taking it.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
99% of the west including all western politicians seriously believe this. Putin is a deranged and unstable dictator except when it comes to nukes where he suddenly becomes a pacifist.

I don't see how this conflict doesn't end with a nuclear conflict between America and Russia. America is finished either way with Trumpists and the Democrats at each others throats. Maybe the establishment wants to go out in a nuclear fire rather than a long and bloody civil war?

China will step in before Russia goes nuclear.

The logic and calculations are simple. If Russia starts lobbing nukes around, the chances of MAD between Russia and America rises beyond acceptable levels. If there is nuclear MAD between Russia and America, America and the rest of NATO will also launch on China since they got nothing to lose at that point and will not tolerate China coming out unscathed (relatively) and becoming the dominance power and race.

I see China kicking off AR before Russia presses the big red button, which should instantly relieve pressure on Russia as American attention snaps to Asia and Ukraine’s weapon gravytrain suddenly derails.

I don’t really see direct Chinese military intervention in Ukraine because it will suffer basically the same economic sanctions from the west in that event as AR, so why not maximise Chinese interests first and foremost?

Also, in the event of AR, China can always hold direct military intervention in Ukraine over the heads of the Euros to try to stop them going all in with America on sanctions. Unlikely to work, but might as well try since there isn’t much cost or much more for China to lose.

I just don’t see Russia actually going nuclear over Ukraine because A) They are nowhere near being actually defeated. They have yielded ground, but have not suffered any major military defeat or lost significant forces or capabilities. B) China will step in to relieve the pressure one way or another before Russia feels it has to go that far.
 

Andy1974

Senior Member
Registered Member
KSA would have the same issue that Iran has. It is neither easy nor cheap to make a missile with range to hit the US from their part of the globe.
You sure about that? Chinas hypersonic weapons program may disagree.
The country that sometimes acts like the father and sometimes like the son of the US is much nearer though.
Saudi already has Chinese ballistic missiles and drones.
There also seems to be high level rapprochement being tested between Tehran and Riyadh. We are way far off from alliance but apparently both sides may soon be "no comment" on each others strategic weapons development. Net loser would be US influence in the middle east.
Iran is implementing its (secret) commitments in order to join the SCO; KSA said it wants to join the SCO; Russia said no new SCO members can join without resolution of disputes with existing SCO members —-> Saudi/Iran Rapprochement.
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
China will step in before Russia goes nuclear.

The logic and calculations are simple. If Russia starts lobbing nukes around, the chances of MAD between Russia and America rises beyond acceptable levels. If there is nuclear MAD between Russia and America, America and the rest of NATO will also launch on China since they got nothing to lose at that point and will not tolerate China coming out unscathed (relatively) and becoming the dominance power and race.

I see China kicking off AR before Russia presses the big red button, which should instantly relieve pressure on Russia as American attention snaps to Asia and Ukraine’s weapon gravytrain suddenly derails.

I don’t really see direct Chinese military intervention in Ukraine because it will suffer basically the same economic sanctions from the west in that event as AR, so why not maximise Chinese interests first and foremost?

Also, in the event of AR, China can always hold direct military intervention in Ukraine over the heads of the Euros to try to stop them going all in with America on sanctions. Unlikely to work, but might as well try since there isn’t much cost or much more for China to lose.

I just don’t see Russia actually going nuclear over Ukraine because A) They are nowhere near being actually defeated. They have yielded ground, but have not suffered any major military defeat or lost significant forces or capabilities. B) China will step in to relieve the pressure one way or another before Russia feels it has to go that far.
Russian nuclear threat just as a message to China that China must send an army to Russia if Russia stands at risk to lose territory.

At it's core, the Ukraine war is a proxy war between US and China, with the casus belli being US expansionism of it's self proclaimed "world order" that clashes with the views of China and it's friends.

Russia is a proxy through which armed demilitarization and deindustrialization of the west is carried out.

USA has played a lot of support cards because Ukraine needs it to survive, while Russia hasn't needed nearly as much support yet.

It is coping from NATO to believe that Russia wouldn't receive aid if they need it. Putin's nuclear threat is his insurance that even if China suddenly flip flops and decides to leave him out to dry, they won't be able to do so.
 
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