I'm surprised the fighter jet could even take off with such a heavy potato sack in the cockpit.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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@tokenanalyst the epicenter is up north in Vigan BUT I felt it strongly cause I lived in a high rise condo...lol
Well, it's a game of brinkmanship, or this latest episode is the new start of another war in ASIA-PACIFIC.
Perhaps, this latest provocation by America is a well coordinated stunt that's been designed and is intentioned to accomplish 3 things: 1.) Stopping Xi Jinping’s 3rd term, 2.) Damaging China's red line, credibility of threat, galvanizing the so-called global democracies in coalescing with U.S. 3.) China's internal problem would be too severe caused by the government's inability to protect it's sovereignty, bring tension internally and open up fissures within the party.
If Xi's action is going to be seen as weak, dilettante, that may or may not result of him becoming politically ineffective and weak which could stop his ascendancy in getting his 3rd term. After all, what's even the point of giving the man a 3rd term if the most important sovereignty issue for China turns out to be yet again another humiliating episode for the country and the party. This alone could bring out the victory crows in the U.S. and will be lauded as a further evidence that U.S. primacy still reign Supreme in the world, and that China is nothing more than a barking chihuahua, not a dragon worthy of being feared nor respected.
Secondly, if China dares to strike it's claws it's actions will still be spun as belligerent, which again cements another American led claim that China isn't a responsible power, and is not worthy to be trusted with anything at all. I don't know if this narrative will be effective throughout the rest of the real world, but this narrative will play extensively, and extremely well in the western world.
Thirdly, if Xi (who's raison detre for seeking a 3rd term is to deal with the Taiwan issue) is unable to deal effectively with such existential subject for China then wouldn't this cause upheaval and maybe even a questioning of purpose for the country's top leadership? And who would come out to replace him? What's the political outcome? Either way, the resulting uncertainty and the potential political chaos within the CPC hierarchy would be politically damaging to China and how about the confidence of the Chinese people? Would they still cling unto the belief that the reunification of the country still lies with the party?
The U.S. objective here is to weaken and damage the CPC because it's the CPC that's made China what it is today and without their strong track record = strong support from the majority of Chinese people their relationship with the people would or could weaken thereby weakening it's hold of the country. The inherent objective here is to weaken, incapacitate, and ultimately destroy the very political entity that gives modern China the foundation/pillar its standing on.
These are all my speculation of course.
Well, if a hot war is to begin, China should first start ToT to the global counter-states to maximize capabilities at the SCO level. This would mean uplifting militaries across Venezuela, Mexico, Iran, Pakistan, North Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan with full spectrum capabilities and maximize siege economy capabilities.
While I understand your sentiment, I do doubt the willingness of the USN to actually start a shooting war with China for a 80 yr old politician who is not that liked back home.
As someone has said earlier, the ROE for the Taiwanese has changed recently to not open fire first. That means it's more likely than not the Taiwanese military will only shadow the PLA but not engage. As long as the PLAAF and PLAN stay within the 12nm of the island, the USN won't dare to fire a shot.
The difficult part for the PLA is how to force Pelosi's plane not to land in Taiwan and divert to China. As soon as it enters international airspace, the USN would be free to engage with the PLA. I very much doubt the PLA will actually shoot it down, that would definitely give the US a justification to start a full scale war.
I have a feeling that China might have to back down again, unless a behind the scene deal can be made first.
EJ-200 is the best medium thrust engine on the market, bar none.
China must response harshly otherwise it’s guaranteed that Taiwan will start pushing for independence. We all know the NeoCons want to plaster US jets circling over Taipei to humiliate China in August with the congress meeting across the global media.
You contradicted yourself by first stating USN wont start a shooting war for an 80 year old politician then later stating China shooting her plane down will definetly give US justification to start total war.
USN doesnt decide what it goes to war over. When US decides to go to war it doesnt need and dont care about justification.
Again, Pelosi is merely the pretext, her life doesnt matter to either side in the grand scheme of things....
Yourself and the poster before you still hope this is a limited engagement /tactic from the US side, to either collapse the CPC leading to Chinese regime change or to embarass China again with a stunt to get leverage in other negotiations...
America has ran out of time and ran out of options.... this is its last stand... and its not that patient to begin with... I see this as a signal/indication that full scale total war has already been greenlit and there is no turning back no matter what happens or doesnt happen from here on out