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Nobo

Nobo

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“Amid high inflation and rapidly tightening monetary policy, The Conference Board expects economic growth will continue to cool throughout 2022. A U.S. recession around the end of this year and early next is now likely, said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board.
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Overbom

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Based af
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“The Chinese appear to perceive the need to demonstrate that the us cannot keep salami slicing its one-China policy with impunity,” says Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think-tank.
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She added that in April a former Chinese army officer emailed her to express his “personal opinion” that China’s air force would stop Ms Pelosi’s plane from landing in Taiwan. Such aerial brinkmanship is still unlikely given the risk of escalation. But one thing is certain: there is turbulence ahead.
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manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

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Nutrient said:
As you said, war is almost inevitable. According to Graham Allison, the originator of the term
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, when a reigning hegemon attempted to suppress a rising power, war happened 12 of 16 times. So war between the USA and China is quite likely but not unavoidable.

For example, the rivalry between the US and the USSR (the Cold War) did not cause a global hot war. Something similar can happen in the US/China contest. There's some hope for those of us who want to live.
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Yeah, cus after nuclear weapons were invented and MAD established, Thucydides' Trap was undone. The whole point of the Trap was that the hegemon wanted to continue being the hegemon, which he can't be if he's dead. However, there is a chance that he can regain the title in the future if he lowers his head for now and works hard for it.
Overbom said:
There were a lot of near misses that almost caused a nuclear war during the Cold War. Its a miracle we passed that period without a nuclear disaster happening
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I think all of the near misses occurred because something caused one side to be uncertain of whether the other side had decided to launch first. None of them were because one side actually would rather launch than lose the competition. China is a much cooler entity than the Soviet Union (mainly because the Soviets were only in a military competition with the US while China can overtake the US militarily, economically, and technologically) and chances that the US would think that China had just launched a nuke at the them are very very low in comparison.
 
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zhangjim

Junior Member
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ZeEa5KPul said:
The present conflict between the US and China is fundamentally different from the Cold War. The USSR was a conservative, status quo power; it was more or less satisfied with the outcome of WWII. It held territory up to half of Germany - any Soviet leader would look at that situation and think "that'll do." There is no Chinese leader who would look at China's periphery today and think "that'll do."
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China's strategic environment is far more dangerous than Russia.
When China began to rebuild in 1949, it faced the loss of marginal territories, surrounding spheres of influence and strategic buffer zones.
Compared with the relatively safe Soviet Union, China has always faced the environment of the enemy's muzzle against the chest.

For this year's war in Ukraine, many people in China are delighted.
Someone said such a reason: over the years, with the support of superpowers, any insignificant weak country has dared to challenge countries far stronger than them regardless of their own strength.This has nothing to do with their sovereignty. They have been given an international status that is seriously disproportionate to their own strength.This war can sober up many guys who are delusional of using the power of great powers to grab benefits.
 
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