So he had a fridge full of duck sauce plus $500,000 of liquid cash? Someone got murdered over like 2 spoonful of duck sauce? Yeesh. I wonder if his gonna try to find a way to escape now.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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So he had a fridge full of duck sauce plus $500,000 of liquid cash? Someone got murdered over like 2 spoonful of duck sauce? Yeesh. I wonder if his gonna try to find a way to escape now.
Automatic translation from German to English:
"The USA is on the brink of war with China and Russia"
The American hedge fund manager and multi-billionaire Ray Dalio, the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund firm, is considered an expert on crises. He predicts dark times for the West and reveals how investors can still protect their assets.
SPIEGEL: Mr. Dalio, you have become a very rich man with your hedge fund, earning tens of billions through speculation. Now you're warning that another major economic crisis is looming. What makes you so pessimistic?
Dalio: I like to look at the broad strokes of history. I look at cases from the past and compare them with what is happening today, look at the relationship between cause and effect. In the 2008 global financial crisis, for example, my fund did relatively well in part because I had previously looked closely at the Great Depression of 1929. That helped me anticipate the crisis.
SPIEGEL: And now we are facing such a crisis again?
Dalio: The figures show that the United States is already about 70 percent through the great cycle of a dominant economic power. The country spends much more money than it takes in and has high debts. So for new spending, the government must print even more money and incur even more debt, creating more inflation and political strife. Yet the conflicts are already so bad that they could lead to civil war. Moreover, the country is on the brink of war with China and Russia.
SPIEGEL: Those are horror scenarios, aren't they?
Dalio: I have learned in my business life to be as objective as possible. What I personally want must not influence my view of things. My calculations are comprehensible to everyone, and I have documented my research results in my new book. If you look at the major patterns of the past 500 years, you can see: Great economic powers have often fared this way in the past.
SPIEGEL: But why is the U.S. threatened with civil war?
Dalio: The financial and political problems are already obvious. It's not hard to imagine that this will turn into a civil war. I think it's likely that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans will accept defeat in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Then the federal court will have to make a decision that could be challenged by the states. Anyone who is moderate or wants to reach compromises is considered weak.
SPIEGEL: Do you expect Donald Trump to run again?
Dalio: Yes. Trump represents at least half of the Republican Party, and there is no real alternative. His influence will be great. In American politics, we are witnessing a battle of ideologies. That's also evident, by the way, in Elon Musk's attempt to take over Twitter. This deal is not about economic motivations at all, but about influence on society. Because whoever controls Twitter has greater power over society than the Supreme Court.
SPIEGEL: In economic terms, how can the U.S. get out of the economic trap you describe?
Dalio: Common sense and history show that there are only two ways: Either the government must increase its revenues to finance debt service in the future. Or it must cut back on its spending. The country must no longer live beyond its means. Politically, the different camps need to talk to each other again instead of continuing to fight each other.
SPIEGEL: Do you think the U.S. can do that?
Dalio: I don't think it's likely that government revenues will rise enough and spending will be cut enough. It's much more likely that the government will continue to crank up the printing press.
SPIEGEL: The government could also raise taxes on the super-rich like you to pay off the accumulated debt.
Dalio: The amount of money that would have to be taken away from the wealthy would be far too high, because too many holes would have to be plugged at the same time. Tax increases would tend to exacerbate the conflicts in the country, and the government is aware of that. That's why it prefers to keep printing money. The post office delivers checks to people, and no one complains. Everyone likes the gifts.
SPIEGEL: Such gifts are dangerous because they fuel inflation, which is already at record levels. Have central banks stood by and watched demonetization for too long?
Dalio: By the time inflation gets here, it's already too late. Because a higher interest rate would choke off the economy. The central banks are trying to balance this out, but we will have stagflation.
SPIEGEL: The economy is barely growing, prices are rising ...
Dalio: Yes. And the situation is exacerbated by global conflicts. With the Ukraine war, it's obvious. There is also a high probability that China will be drawn into the economic war with the West. This will make global trade even more inefficient, and food and energy in particular are likely to become even more expensive. This has enormous political consequences. Inflation is like a match thrown on dry tinder. The right question is: Why did the central banks let it get this far?
SPIEGEL: I'm sure you'll give us the answer in a moment.
Dalio: Inflation is quite convenient for the politicians because of the high national debt. As long as interest rates are lower than the inflation rate, real debt will decline. I also have the feeling that the current generation of central bankers has not really grasped the relationship between money and debt. These people don't know what real inflation looks like because they've never experienced it themselves.
SPIEGEL: According to your analyses, China is still at the beginning of its rise as a major economic nation. Will the country soon have replaced the U.S. as the world's largest economy?
Dalio: Four times as many people live in China as in the USA. When China's per capita income will be only half that of the U.S., China's gross domestic product will already be twice that of the U.S.. And China is growing at a breathtaking pace. Chinese per capita income has increased 26-fold since I first went there in 1984. The Chinese would have to be very stupid to mess up the race to catch up.
SPIEGEL: Right now, the country is suffering massive corona lockdowns, and growth is weakening.
Dalio: I think the pandemic will only keep China busy for a certain period of time, maybe the next six to 12 months. I expect it will not keep the country in check in the long term, although it will leave scars. China is researching new vaccines that will have a big impact. The much bigger problem for China is the conflict with the US.
SPIEGEL: How will the U.S. react to the rise of China?
Dalio: I think it's possible that the U.S. will impose sanctions on China. The U.S. could try to stop investment and business in China. Buying Chinese goods or even doing business in China could be like buying Russian goods. This will hurt both countries and the entire world because China is so intertwined with other countries. 22 percent of American industrial goods are imported from China.
"The USA is on the brink of war with China and Russia"
The American hedge fund manager and multi-billionaire Ray Dalio, the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund firm, is considered an expert on crises. He predicts dark times for the West and reveals how investors can still protect their assets.
SPIEGEL: Mr. Dalio, you have become a very rich man with your hedge fund, earning tens of billions through speculation. Now you're warning that another major economic crisis is looming. What makes you so pessimistic?
Dalio: I like to look at the broad strokes of history. I look at cases from the past and compare them with what is happening today, look at the relationship between cause and effect. In the 2008 global financial crisis, for example, my fund did relatively well in part because I had previously looked closely at the Great Depression of 1929. That helped me anticipate the crisis.
SPIEGEL: And now we are facing such a crisis again?
Dalio: The figures show that the United States is already about 70 percent through the great cycle of a dominant economic power. The country spends much more money than it takes in and has high debts. So for new spending, the government must print even more money and incur even more debt, creating more inflation and political strife. Yet the conflicts are already so bad that they could lead to civil war. Moreover, the country is on the brink of war with China and Russia.
SPIEGEL: Those are horror scenarios, aren't they?
Dalio: I have learned in my business life to be as objective as possible. What I personally want must not influence my view of things. My calculations are comprehensible to everyone, and I have documented my research results in my new book. If you look at the major patterns of the past 500 years, you can see: Great economic powers have often fared this way in the past.
SPIEGEL: But why is the U.S. threatened with civil war?
Dalio: The financial and political problems are already obvious. It's not hard to imagine that this will turn into a civil war. I think it's likely that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans will accept defeat in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Then the federal court will have to make a decision that could be challenged by the states. Anyone who is moderate or wants to reach compromises is considered weak.
SPIEGEL: Do you expect Donald Trump to run again?
Dalio: Yes. Trump represents at least half of the Republican Party, and there is no real alternative. His influence will be great. In American politics, we are witnessing a battle of ideologies. That's also evident, by the way, in Elon Musk's attempt to take over Twitter. This deal is not about economic motivations at all, but about influence on society. Because whoever controls Twitter has greater power over society than the Supreme Court.
SPIEGEL: In economic terms, how can the U.S. get out of the economic trap you describe?
Dalio: Common sense and history show that there are only two ways: Either the government must increase its revenues to finance debt service in the future. Or it must cut back on its spending. The country must no longer live beyond its means. Politically, the different camps need to talk to each other again instead of continuing to fight each other.
SPIEGEL: Do you think the U.S. can do that?
Dalio: I don't think it's likely that government revenues will rise enough and spending will be cut enough. It's much more likely that the government will continue to crank up the printing press.
SPIEGEL: The government could also raise taxes on the super-rich like you to pay off the accumulated debt.
Dalio: The amount of money that would have to be taken away from the wealthy would be far too high, because too many holes would have to be plugged at the same time. Tax increases would tend to exacerbate the conflicts in the country, and the government is aware of that. That's why it prefers to keep printing money. The post office delivers checks to people, and no one complains. Everyone likes the gifts.
SPIEGEL: Such gifts are dangerous because they fuel inflation, which is already at record levels. Have central banks stood by and watched demonetization for too long?
Dalio: By the time inflation gets here, it's already too late. Because a higher interest rate would choke off the economy. The central banks are trying to balance this out, but we will have stagflation.
SPIEGEL: The economy is barely growing, prices are rising ...
Dalio: Yes. And the situation is exacerbated by global conflicts. With the Ukraine war, it's obvious. There is also a high probability that China will be drawn into the economic war with the West. This will make global trade even more inefficient, and food and energy in particular are likely to become even more expensive. This has enormous political consequences. Inflation is like a match thrown on dry tinder. The right question is: Why did the central banks let it get this far?
SPIEGEL: I'm sure you'll give us the answer in a moment.
Dalio: Inflation is quite convenient for the politicians because of the high national debt. As long as interest rates are lower than the inflation rate, real debt will decline. I also have the feeling that the current generation of central bankers has not really grasped the relationship between money and debt. These people don't know what real inflation looks like because they've never experienced it themselves.
SPIEGEL: According to your analyses, China is still at the beginning of its rise as a major economic nation. Will the country soon have replaced the U.S. as the world's largest economy?
Dalio: Four times as many people live in China as in the USA. When China's per capita income will be only half that of the U.S., China's gross domestic product will already be twice that of the U.S.. And China is growing at a breathtaking pace. Chinese per capita income has increased 26-fold since I first went there in 1984. The Chinese would have to be very stupid to mess up the race to catch up.
SPIEGEL: Right now, the country is suffering massive corona lockdowns, and growth is weakening.
Dalio: I think the pandemic will only keep China busy for a certain period of time, maybe the next six to 12 months. I expect it will not keep the country in check in the long term, although it will leave scars. China is researching new vaccines that will have a big impact. The much bigger problem for China is the conflict with the US.
SPIEGEL: How will the U.S. react to the rise of China?
Dalio: I think it's possible that the U.S. will impose sanctions on China. The U.S. could try to stop investment and business in China. Buying Chinese goods or even doing business in China could be like buying Russian goods. This will hurt both countries and the entire world because China is so intertwined with other countries. 22 percent of American industrial goods are imported from China.
Yeah.. Sorry but not happening.
Inviting Iran but not Saudi Arabia wouldn't work for China. Its like a slap on MBS face that he would invite Iran over Saudi Arabia lol. I mean I can see why, Russia has its own interests, but in this case China wouldn't accommodate it.
As it has been repeatedly emphasised by Chinese officials, China considers Saudi Arabia as its' principal partner in the Middle East. From China's perspective everything starts from it, and then flows outwards to the region
So if China has to be “very stupid” to mess up the economic race then I wonder what that means about India then…
India thinks that it has magically transformed to the China of 2022 where it can stand up and push for its interests. Suffice to say that Indians are often wrong on timing correctly their geopolitical plays...
To be fair Iran has 1+ trillion USD economy while Saudi doesn't (yet, projected to get there by end of this year). So it has more economic weight in an economic group. All of the NG8 are 1+ trillion USD economies... Or were, until Turkish Lira devaluated so much it fell below $1 trillion.
But then the political meaning is questionable. if US treaty allies like Turkey and Mexico can be invited then what is the point? Or hostile states like India for that matter?
If it's just "collection of strong economies outside G8" then might as well invite South Korea.
CENTO was the Middle Eastern NATO, but that fell apart after the coup d'tat that overthrew the Iraqi monarchy, but again the ignorance of history (particularly by the US) rears its ugly head.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
The way he says "like-minded" and how he brags about relations with NATO, it sounds like allied with the West. It's going to fail if that's the goal.