This is what I think will happen over the next few months. Russia will eventually stop supplying oil or gas to Europe. Either because the currency they will receive is worthless (what's the point in having Euros if you are sanctioned), or because relations between Russia and Europe deteriorate to the point of no return.I am merely pointing out that stance of Turkey and Germany has its own reasons not related what they saying in public and those policies are influenced by concept of Eurabia. you have to go back Pre WW1 time to understand it. it is not just related to Middleast. Germany overspent on Afghanistan compared to all US allies. it is to lessen burden on Turkey in that theatre.
I am sure Turkish contingent in libya will appreciate the help.
how many countries Turkey can send $10b of its exports?.
which contradict your point of US/ Europe decreasing reliance on Middleast. they would not have allowed so much investment and refining design to process Mideastern crude.
As i said there is alot of infrastructure and aviation. if i am reading statistics correctly. there are 1400 Airbus on order in Middleast. and than add choppers to it. The whole system of overhauling, simulators, pilot training, Airport radars/equipment. most of it will be based on European tech for decades to com.
It is good Chinese can export drone but it is not very expensive investment. Turkey also peddling drones.
The moment that happens, OPEC will announce an embargo until Israel is held to account. Europe will have to choose between Russia and Israel. They don't even need to fully cut it off like in 1973, just throttle it to earn enough to get by for a few years. Europe is the biggest consumer of oil and gas but will find themselves cut out of 90% of the worlds supply, I think you can imagine what will happen.
All this talk about Eurabia, or bringing up what happened pre-ww1 when Turkey wasn't a modern state is meaningless. Business between the middle east and Europe is purely transactional. There isn't a secret conspiracy to create a Eurabia whatever that even means.
Lay off the vodka comrade....