This is a new piece of my "Analyze It" series.
Dust Off That Dirty Word Detente and Engage With China
Joe Biden's grand strategy is setting the US and Beijing on a collision course. It's bad foreign policy and terrible domestic politics.
By Niall Ferguson
[My Comment] This is a long article. There are a few signals from this latest piece, if you read this in the recent series of his articles on China or Russia. He is an avid promoter of Cold War 2.0. He is fundamentally anti-China and anti-Russia from an anglo world view. In this latest piece, I detect his undertone of pessimism in the romance of the three kingdoms: US - China - Russia, which was very rare in most of his opinion pieces in the western MSM. Since he has a broader audience among anglo elites as well as US political class, the under tone of this piece is more interesting to me than its face value. To my eyes over past 20 years or so since I started reading his books and articles, this piece essentially argues for a strategic course correction on China and to a lesser degree on the war. Another interesting tidbit about this article is that, he is NOT talking about China until half way into the article.
Let's jump into some quotes.
[My Comment]
On (1), would it be a little too late? Having gone through this trade war for a few years, China has gained confidence and experiences while US has fire many shots. As a result, US has much less leverage in the trade war against China. Will Biden do the right thing for the benefits of American consumers? I guess not in the current political environment and the hawkish trap his admin has laid for themself since the day one in the white house. Can the Biden admin actively seeks an end to the trade war without appearing losing face? As time passes, it will only get harder.
On (2), as the war goes as my early assessment of Putin waging a protracted war of attrition and winning, in a relative sense of comprehensive national power ranking, it only enhances China's position.
On (3), China has amicable relationships with all stakeholders in the mid-east region. The current energy crisis is actually a god-send gift to China's long term energy planning. It will only hasten the revolution of new energy industries. It will expedite the green infrastructure in China domestic economic development. It will further enhance China's positions in EV, battery, solar, wind, nuclear etc.
Zero-Covid is Xi's 1949.10 instead of of 1966.5. Xi has been able to push many domestic agenda during Zero-Covid that he could not possibly have done during normal times. Under Zero-Covid, Xi has gained so much public support.
So once again, Ferguson starts to have a realist view of US situation, while continues to have a typical mis-read on China among anglo elites. But he does have a good read: the coming mid-term election is going to be a mess.
For reference in this context, here is another recent article of Niall Ferguson:
Putin Misunderstands History. So, Unfortunately, Does the U.S.
