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FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think warning shot will have a deterrence effect when the goal of the US is to goad China into war
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. Hope they remember that raising tensions is not good for anybody.
United States Congressman Larry McDonald from Georgia, who at the time was also the second president of the conservative John Birch Society, was on the flight.
 

AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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No, duh! The American tactic is the wife-beater tactic. I'm going to abuse you into submission. They think that's how human nature works. No, human nature is to resist abuse. Why do they choose to go against human nature? Because to try to convince you in a civilized manner is weakness to them. You're not worth it to them so they're going to abuse you instead. Then on the flip side of the coin some Chinese think avoiding being offensive to Americans is the best way into getting them on your side. No, you're showing to them you're weak. Negotiation is weakness. Compromise is weakness. They don't have any sympathy and will continue to abuse you because that's how they see themselves as being in 100% control. You look at the anti-Asian violence in the US. Americans are tired of hearing about it so it will continue. The only way it's going to stop is when the attackers are killed or brutally maimed so any future attackers will have to think they might die doing it or else you're the one that will be killed or maimed. Right now they know they can get away with abusing you because Asian-Americans are looking at this as an opportunity to get sympathy not solving the problem. Americans are getting tired of and don't want to hear how Americans are racist that this is happening.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Gas deliveries by pipelines to Europe cannot be redirected "eastward" because the required infrastructure doesn't exist.
Neither does the infrastructure to replace the Russian gas imports. And while Russia can plug the gas wells, Europe can't concoct natural gas out of thin air. The most optimum estimates would say it takes 3 years to build a floating LNG terminal. Assuming you had the LNG. And a floating LNG terminal is, guess what, a ship. Which would have to be built. Last I heard there are like 3 available for lease worldwide and 2 of those are already booked. The alternative, making a bog standard LNG terminal, would take 5 years at best estimate.
Russia built the Power of Siberia pipeline to northern China in 5 years. And guess what. There won't be enough LNG to replace entire Russian imports. Especially if the US decides to also pressure Japan and South Korea to drop Russian energy imports for whatever reason.

Afaik these pipelines need about 5-7 years to be built
It depends on length of pipeline and capacity. I doubt they can build the LNG terminals much faster. Let alone in Germany.
They have been studying and issuing licenses to build the LNG terminals for longer than that.

Russia has already done preliminary surveying of the terrain for Soyuz Vostok including in Mongolia. They are currently designing the pipeline and doing a detailed survey. They might start building it as early as in 2 years. And it would not be unheard of for them to build two pipelines at once. They did that with NordStream 2 and TurkStream. So they might just build Power of Siberia 2 to Sakhalin and Soyuz Vostok to Yamal simultaneously. My main question is if China would be able to even use the gas. The relevant facilities in China proper would have to be built. I mean pipelines and actual end user applications for the gas. Boilers, power plants, etc. This is neither cheap nor fast to build. Most of Northern China infrastructure has been tailored for coal use. And in the South, near Shanghai, they do use LNG but you would need to build a huge pipeline there. Another one. The one to connect Shanghai to Power of Siberia (first one) isn't even finished yet.
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"REUTERS:THE EUROPEAN UNION'S OIL EMBARGO AGAINST RUSSIA WILL BEGIN ON MAY 15."
Hang on to your hats folks. The US is already experiencing Diesel and Aviation Fuel shortages and they don't have even a fraction of Europe's oil imports from Russia. If they ban oil imports, diesel imports, and distillate imports from Russia, there will be a huge Diesel and Aviation Fuel shortage in Europe. Which will likely make the 1970s oil crisis look like a picnic. And that is assuming they let India or China buy from Russia and this is just a change of customers and supply won't drop.

Russia should also see if they can simultaneously construct LNG plants for increased capacity, while China builds more LNG terminal for them. Although gas pipes should be prioritized, as they won't be blocked in a maritime blockade scenario.
Problem is these used Japanese and European technology to liquefy the gas I think. Russia supposedly is working on import substitution for the relevant equipment. Have been doing it for a couple of years. But there might be project delays. Then there is the small detail of having to build Arc7 Ice-class gas tankers to bring the gas from Yamal to China over the Northeast Passage.

Saying stuff like this is going to cost Le Pen the election. Her stance regarding Russia or NATO isn't a popular one right now.
Actually I think a lot of people in France want to leave NATO. But without some sort of counter to Russia in Europe which can sort of match Russia's population I don't think Europe will have a viable foreign policy. It would require France and Germany minimum. Or France, Italy, and Spain. But that will never work.

It almost semi-official now.
When or if mainland China invades Taiwan, the United States has clearly indicated that they will sanction China.
What else is new.
 

escobar

Brigadier
Provocation:

"On April 14, 6 members of the US congress and senate visited Taiwan to meet with Cai."



Response:

"On April 15, PLA ETC sent warships, bombers and fighters patrolling around Taiwan. The expedition forces also practiced attacks on targets at sea. This is a warning shot at the US for its recent provocations on the Taiwan issue."



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If the objective of these exercise is to deter those visits, it is a failure. Like Russia warning of nuclear weapons in Baltic if Sweden and Finland join Nato
 
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