This is exactly what it is. It's already a meme in China and people are calling it "战术阳性" or "tactically positive". It reminds me of my own daughter who sometimes wake up complaining of tummy ache to try to avoid going to school.
Here are the suspicious points surrounding this situation:
Point 1: Tsai also becoming a close contact
Only a few hours after Pelosi was declared positive, our good friend from across the strait, Ms Tsai herself was found to be a close contact with confirmed case and is now in isolation. Seems like coordinated effort to avoid embarrassment to me. But if they're using it as excuse why wouldn't Tsai say she's also positive? Because
and it was a big deal last year, she cannot let it be seen to be ineffective.
Point 2: Biden should be a close contact
Days before Pelosi was in very close contact with Biden, hugging and kissing on the cheek. Do you see the President being classified as close contact ala Tsai? If not why not?
Point 3: Shanghai's COVID-19 outbreak is reaching a critical stage, how convenient the would be visit would occur at such a time.
In the most recent 观棋有语, Mr Su talked at length about this incident. If he is to be believe Chinese intelligence agencies had about a month of warning before this weekend that it will happen, and it was known to Japan and Taiwan as well. Originally the visit was planned for October, immediately before midterm as a political card but it was accelerated and moved ahead of schedule to now because US intelligence was telling them that China is too preoccupied with the Shanghai outbreak to deal with this.
Evidently, that intelligence was very wrong. Recall the cancelled Kelly Craft's visit last year in January, then a few month later
details came out about how PLA called up DoD indicating that PLAAF fighters will enter ROC airspace along side the US aircraft should Kelly Craft go ahead with the visit and any ROCAF aircraft trying to interfere may be fired upon?
Well according to Mr Su PLA once again laid out a welcoming banquet for Pelosi and he's seen the menu and is impressed. This was communicated to the DoD and DoD again played the role of reasonable adult in the room. PLA people are very disappointed that the visit did not happen. Should Pelosi recover and decide to try again later this year the same banquet could be prepared again for her.
Mr Su points out at how Russia only had the war card to play to sort out the Ukraine problem, while China could forestall US action without having to resort to war. When Sun Tzu said:
This is exactly what he was talking about, attacking the schemes.
Mr Su said he would love to tell the whole story and set a date for 2049 if it's still not public by then. But by my estimation the Americans cannot keep a secret and we should expect to see juicy details behind this incident leak out in a few month just like Kelly Craft incident.
If you still don't believe this is a case of "tactically positive" then the only explanation is US is getting a taste of divine punishment from the Jade Emperor, and I think that would make US policy makers even more uncomfortable.