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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
That is highly unlikely. India is still their neighbour and enemy. A large part of the all weather sino-pak brotherhood/ relationship is based on this.

Pakistan was in the U.S. camp in the early days and initially was nudged by America in the "contain China" direction. There was a rumor that some factions in Pakistan favored rapproachment with India to contain Red China, but got a big F-U from Nehru. Then 1962 happened and the rest is history :D.
 

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Pakistan was in the U.S. camp in the early days and initially was nudged by America in the "contain China" direction. There was a rumor that some factions in Pakistan favored rapproachment with India to contain Red China, but got a big F-U from Nehru. Then 1962 happened and the rest is history :D.
Pakistan got really screwed on the Afghanistan tie-up with the US. Anyone with half a brain there will never trust the US again
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
Pakistan was in the U.S. camp in the early days and initially was nudged by America in the "contain China" direction. There was a rumor that some factions in Pakistan favored rapproachment with India to contain Red China, but got a big F-U from Nehru. Then 1962 happened and the rest is history :D.
I never get to understand Pakistan as a country. Emotionally, I would side with majority of Chinese and call Pak a brother. But lots of facts just keep puzzling me. For example, CPEC should be at least equivalent to the 156 projects. But I have read so many negative stories around CPEC, sometimes there would be a few WTFs popping into my mind. If Pak ever hopes for a golden opportunity to fall from the sky, this is it. But, I don't see a national consensus on all-in for taking full advantage of CPEC.

If I am honest, Pak is as a burden to China as a brother could be. China literally constrains itself to further relationship with India because of this relationship. I am absolutely not talking about right or wrong, just facts. Even though I am not a fan of many things Indian, but I cannot deny the fact that China literally traded any chance to ally with India for Pak.
 

4Runner

Junior Member
Registered Member
Pakistan got really screwed on the Afghanistan tie-up with the US. Anyone with half a brain there will never trust the US again
I think you may cut some slack to Pak on that subject. IIRC, US sent a credible threat to Pak, something along the line that US could bomb Pak to stone age if Pak does not come along on Afghanistan. So gun in head, Pak "surrendered", sort of.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
A tale of two different systems really.
The threat Americans see in Chinese system is that it is actually a viable alternative model that will inevitably surpass and overtake their own where it hurts them most, money and its attendant power. The political layer of American system is, at the most abstract level, decided by votes, whereas Chinese one is decided by results. At economic layer, Chinese one knows their books and controls it to her advantage much much better than Fed, a very large employer of economists, or any groupings of economic advisers American executive branch do.
Case in point is Lehman vs. Evergrande. In Lehman case, US had no idea what was the actual books of all those intertwined contracts and counter parties, which was why US sleepwalked into that sub prime crisis. At the superficial theoretical level, every economic ideas are supposedly self-evident, observable and predictable to the point everyone can understand them reasonably well given some readings and subscription of some magazines and news papers. As sub prime crisis showed, no economists, especially at the Feds and Treasury, really understood anything, still don't know a lot about a lot of things, and even don’t recognize it necessarily when it appears to be happening, ie, transitional nature of inflation, and for sure can’t predict it as economic theories hold, ie, the current inflation saga we're in now.
Evergrande. China GDP was around a trillion dollars mark before she joined WTO. Combined books of all her banks was around a trillion dollars as well. She had to recapitalize 40 percents of that books due to NPL's. 40 percents ! Let that sink in. But she did it. Again the strength of knowing and owing the books end to end. Today it's standing around 60 trillions dollars. Evergrande is 4% of China's real estate sector. If you round up top 20 guys, you'd get something like a third of the sector. Again China knows and owns the books from end to end, and they knew they had to pop it and glide it down to a safe zone given the true social nature of Evergrande problem, not the financial nature, as it's the Chinese citizens who'd be holding the bag as they wouldn't have the apartments they had mostly paid for. Evergrande missing bond payments is just that, they missed payments, nothing more. No foreigners can come to China and claim any piece of Chinese property and asset, just like Americans would normally do with court orders and police enforcement. That's the beauty of VIE structure, it's an unenforceable contracts with a Chinese holding company, boxed up in some lawyers office in the Caribbean. The same goes for all the Chinese tech stocks listed in US. Nobody can do jackshit about it, thus the reason China don't bother giving them their financials and compliance. Greed is a double edged sword. Again knowing and owing the books yourself from end to end ,ie,Control. Lehman and Evergrande are at opposite end of each other in nature, but then again, China don't sleepwalk into it. Having more control means more resiliency, better overall management, etc.
Just don't buy the veneer of sophistication that American system flashes out at the first glance. It's designed to impress and if you scratch hard enough and long enough, they don't come out the same way they appear.

I am a big advocate of going to a place to try to truly understand it. While I was in America, I had a moment of epiphany when visiting Atlantic City in that it is the perfect encapsulation of the
modern American financial system.

Advertised and marketed incredibly well in the media. Even when you arrive there in person, it’s easy to be dazzled by all the glamour and grandeur.

However, venture just ever so slight off the carefully crafted tourist paths and you find shocking poverty and degradation. All that wealth and power is only skin deep, and designed to separate the idiot rich with their cash and capture all the benefits for the elite while ordinary Americans who live in the shadows of all these monuments to greed look on resentfully but impotently from their pitifully meagre trickle down crumbs.
 
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