Miscellaneous News

enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not really stealth, it's pretty in your face...

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The Stealth Erosion of Dollar Dominance: Active Diversifiers and the Rise of Nontraditional Reserve Currencies

We document a decline in the dollar share of international reserves since the turn of the century. This decline reflects active portfolio diversification by central bank reserve managers; it is not a byproduct of changes in exchange rates and interest rates, of reserve accumulation by a small handful of central banks with large and distinctive balance sheets, or of changes in coverage of surveys of reserve composition. Strikingly, the decline in the dollar’s share has not been accompanied by an increase in the shares of the pound sterling, yen and euro, other long-standing reserve currencies and units that, along with the dollar, have historically comprised the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. Rather, the shift out of dollars has been in two directions: a quarter into the Chinese renminbi, and three quarters into the currencies of smaller countries that have played a more limited role as reserve currencies.

A characterization of the evolution of the international reserve system in the last 20 years is thus as ongoing movement away from the dollar, a recent if still modest rise in the role of the renminbi, and changes in market liquidity, relative returns and reserve management enhancing the attractions of nontraditional reserve currencies. These observations provide hints of how the international system may evolve going forward.

See link for full report.

China didn't even do or say anything, just standing on the side looking on in awe as the US keep hitting itself in the face....
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
this honestly scares me. sure the guy is cold blooded analyst and showed a lot of conviction. But this is stuff of crusaders. He is treating nationalism and ideology with religious fervor. And his willingness to go to war can only find parallel in some parts of the middle east.

But scares me more is it's not difficult to imagine there might be people in Taiwan fostering similar mindset. I really hope it doesn't come to that.
Well, you should expect the worst, but hope for the best because to assume or wish away the possibility that Taiwan has people littered with ideological crusaders like that fella would result in severe underestimation of Taiwan's resolve to the detriment of the PLA/China.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
I don't see why people are up to arms for this.
Its the usual things that the hegemon do to contain a rising power. The US is clearly looking to do a Russia to China

Its up to China to manage this.
Just hike the rmb, and export inflation, thereby causing stagflation for the main adversary.
 

emblem21

Major
Registered Member

China’s national wealth remains vulnerable to Western financial sanctions, no matter what it does

  • Sanctions on Moscow show that foreign reserves held by central banks are never truly ‘safe’, which is bound to make Beijing uncomfortable
  • •Yet when it comes to shifting away from Western currencies, the alternatives – gold, the yuan and foreign infrastructure investment – struggle to match up

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West’s
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against Moscow have been among the most draconian in modern history.

The Russian central bank’s assets are frozen, state-owned banks’ assets have been confiscated and the personal wealth of rich Russians has been seized without much due process.


While this financial war will undoubtedly hurt the Russian economy badly, it will also produce many long-lasting consequences for the global financial system.

To read further: non paywall source:
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Oh well, simple solution to this problem. The USA confiscates all of China's dollar denominated reserves, China nationalizes all USA companies in China, and then completely demand that all goods from China to the USA is to be paid for in gold and every single member of the US government is to be sanctioned and any property that is owned by any member in the US government or there backers in Asia or near China will either be confiscated or simply bombed to ash and then after that, work with the middle east and Russia to convince them that all of there goods should be valuable enough to be traded in something more worthwhile then the dollar that is basically toilet paper, I mean the USA should have gold right unless well the real truth is that they actually don't have any. And of course, dump all of the US treasuries onto the open market and let the stock market and US economy collapse over night and let the USA basically suffer its first true blow that is guaranteed to really harm the US populous and ensure that this time around, they get the point that maybe, angering China is not a smart move at all, I mean they should have learnt this in regards to Russia but then again the average US citizen is too stupid to live.
So if the USA is willing to suffer a real true blow that is going to be like punching a man full force in the balls, then the USA had better start losing weight because a fat man falling down is liable to suffer a heart attack from the fall. I know Russia hasn't really gotten started yet but well if Russia cannot make the USA behave themselves through force, then maybe China would have to outright cut off all resources and then some so that they can finally take a hint
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Thanks for posting this. Alexey Arestovich/Oleksiy Arestovych is currently the Adviser to the Head of the President Office of Ukraine. He also predicted Russian take over of Crimea years before it occurred.

It's interesting to watch an interview from 2019 laying out the current events.

@2:55 "Only accession to NATO. If we do not join NATO, then we are finished. We do not have the strength to be neutral. We will not remain neutral."

@3:38 "And we have 2,700km of land border with Russia, which are bare steppes. Do you have any idea how much neutrality will cost us? And count the rest of the countries that have territorial claims against us. Therefore, we will not maintain neutrality, we will not have enough resources. Geographically, no country would be able to maintain neutrality in this position. If we cannot maintain neutrality, we will drift either to the "Taiga Union" (the Eurasian Union with Russia) or to the NATO, there are no other options."

@6:20 Interviewer: "What should the president do? What are the first ten steps?" Alexey: "He must win the parliamentary elections, this is his main step. Because if the parliament in disagreement with the president, then reform packages will be blocked, primarily the direction of joining the EU and NATO. It will be necessary to dissolve parliament and hold new elections. And when this is done, then he will need to get a MAP(membership action plan) in NATO..."

@7:20 "No, we can not talk about any lines of ending the war here, on the contrary, this will most likely push Russia to a major military operation against Ukraine. Because they will have to squander us in terms of infrastructure, and turn everything here into a ruined territory, so that NATO would be reluctant to accept us."

@7:43 Alexey: "With a probability of 99.9%, our price for joining NATO is a full-scale war with Russia. And if we do not join NATO, then the absorption by Russia within 10-12 years. That's the whole fork in which we are." Interviewer: "Wait, and now if you put the bowl on the scales, what is better in this case?" Alexey: "Of course, a major war with Russia and the transition to NATO as a result of the victory over Russia."

@8:10 Interviewer: "And what is a 'major' war with Russia?" Alexey: "Well, it could be an air invasion operation, an offensive by the Russian armies that they created on our border, a siege of Kyiv, an attempt to encircle troops in the ATO zone. A breakthrough through the Crimean Isthmus, an offensive from the territory of Belarus, the creation of new 'people's republics', sabotage, attacks on critical infrastructure, and so on. That's what a major war is, and the probability of it is 99%"

@8:45 Interviewer: "When?" Alexey: "After 2020, 21 and 22 are the most critical, then 2024-2026 and the following 2028-2030 will be critical. Maybe even three wars with Russia."

It is quite clear that the plan is NATO or nothing, he understands the consequences of this gamble. They think the potential reward is worth the certain immense cost. There won't be any meaningful agreement to a ceasefire, any agreement is buying time to rest in between the fight and both sides knows this.
The question is what was the Russian intelligence doing, the Chinese intelligence did when assessing the true strategic nature of the Ukrainian political-military-business people like this guy that are hell bent on creating destruction for a new beginning i.e. joining NATO. Did they dismiss this dude's insights as mere ramblings of an advisor that didn't have any support or what?

The person or group of people that have either the most passionate, with an air of cogent rationality to their vision of what they want to see happen in their country regardless of costs in lives, and material ought to be taken seriously and have their views be examined within their respective enclave to see how influential the ideology has become. If they're just dismiss as nothing but a rant of a wishful thinking idiot then we ought not be surprised when the result is the current Russian vs Ukraine slugfest.

So going back to China and their approach to the "no interference" why commit to such a paralyzing approach when you know your enemies fully well wouldn't even hesitate to decapitate, overturn, overrule, regime change any political, business, and military arrangements they try to make with any country in the world. Regardless of China's peaceful intentions, her enemies/rivals wouldn't see their intentions as benign. And if China is going to keep living in some LA LA land regarding to some of their foreign policy approach then it'll create a situation where the imposition of costs to China's interest and survival is going to increase significantly higher than staking their claims in no uncertain terms that if their interests as well as their partners are harm in any meaningful way there will be hell to pay. The payment can be left to the enemies imagination of what those would be.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
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Since the Russian subreddit was quarantined, it was no surprise pro China was going to get quarantined.

'hate speech'

Also apparently non-English subreddits are more 'hateful' than English language ones...

r/genzedong and r/Chodi are apparently important enough to be reported on time.com.
 
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W20

Junior Member
Registered Member
Alexey Arestovich expresses very well the mental-Software of the hard core of the Ukrainian regime.

And we see that London and Washington (and Berlin and Paris) have put fantasies into their heads. They have been deceived, and they never thought about the well-being of Ukraine.

By magic Ukraine would become Denmark and Norway, it was enough to intensely hate Russia and kill many Russians on the Don. And by magic the North American military empire and its club of European vassals would come to the rescue in "the great war with Russia"

It is clear that on this "planet of the apes" we are all predisposed to believe what we want to believe. But that does not excuse reckless recklessness or sectarian delirium. I want to say that no matter how understanding one is of the human condition, this case of the Ukrainian tragedy is really striking.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
I don't see why people are up to arms for this.
Its the usual things that the hegemon do to contain a rising power. The US is clearly looking to do a Russia to China

Its up to China to manage this.
Indeed, though I think the challenge is magnitude easier than Ukraine. Reading the article, It seems like China has quite an influence politically over there. All they have to play those forces right, keeping the pressure on the government, but at the same time, coordinate with the Nepalese government in extracting maximum concessions from US, to bleed them dry.

The interpretation clause is interesting, because this gives Nepalese government the ability to decide unilaterally to cancel the deal. So imagine the possibility that after getting maximum benefit from the deal, they can claim out of the blue, that US violated their sovereignty or tried using their country against China.

Overall not a big loss for China, and they shouldn't antagonize the country for it. Continue building relations with them through BRI and financial assistance.
 

Appix

Senior Member
Registered Member

Not 'sitting on its hands,' U.S. to up pressure on China, trade czar Tai says​


WASHINGTON, March 25 (Reuters) - The United States is done "sitting on its hands" and will more actively pressure China, the world's second largest economy, to change trade practices that Washington believes distort the market, top U.S. trade negotiator Katherine Tai said.
Tai, a trade lawyer and former congressional staffer appointed by President Joe Biden, inherited difficult talks with Beijing over a "Phase 1" trade deal negotiated by former President Donald Trump.

In an interview with Reuters this week, Tai said the United States was preparing a new approach to China trade policy.

Without offering specifics, she said Washington needed new, more effective tools to defend its economic interests and better compete with China. New U.S. trade investigations, which could result in tariffs or even embargoes against China, may be next, sources familiar with the matter said.

"We're not going to stop pushing China and challenging China to reform and change. But we can't afford to keep sitting on our hands and waiting for China to make its decision," said Tai, the first Asian American in the job and a fluent Mandarin speaker.

"We are going to need to turn the page on the playbook," Tai said. A
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from her office said China had "doubled down on its harmful trade and economic abuses." Beijing has failed to buy a promised $200 billion in additional U.S. goods and services agreed in the deal.

China now faces warnings from the United States, the world's largest economy, not to aid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In the year since Tai became trade czar, some U.S. business executives say they have been frustrated by the slow progress in punishing China. Meanwhile, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China hit $355.3 billion in 2021, the largest recorded since 2018.

Tai acknowledged frustrations, but pointed to longstanding disputes that Washington has resolved with other countries in the past year, precisely, she said, to focus on the bigger threats China poses.

Washington settled a 17-year dispute over aircraft subsidies with the EU and Britain, and a four-year battle over U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs with the EU, Britain and Japan, she said.

ALLIES, TARIFFS, CONGRESS
Tai in November revived a
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begun by the Trump administration, seeking a joint approach to China's industrial subsidies and other "non-market policies and practices," aimed at getting World Trade Organization support, a U.S. official said.
Washington is considering a new Section 301 investigation into Chinese industrial subsidies that could lead to a fresh round of tariffs or embargos, officials say.

The Biden administration may also target China's violations of intellectual property protections under Section 337 of the Tariff Act of 1930, said William Reinsch at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The U.S. Congress is also considering bipartisan legislation that would bolster protections against trade secret violations and expedite investigatory and exclusionary processes.
Tai, citing concerns about China's use of forced labor in its Xinjiang region, is also developing a first-ever USTR trade strategy on the topic.

Jamieson Greer, a partner with King & Spalding and former senior U.S. trade official, said Beijing's response to the war in Ukraine had heightened Europe's growing unease with China, adding Western sanctions against Russia may provide a playbook for future actions against China.

Tai said a "one size fits all" approach would not work. "These are two different countries, two different economies, two different situations. And we really conflate them at our peril," she said.

From Reuters but here is a non-paywall source:
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I post a lot today because a free day. They have long harboured the ambition and goal to pressure Beijing to change it's state capitalistic model to something to their liking through trade wars, sanctions, tarrifs, bonding together with the EU-Japan in a trilateral format to change the rules of the road at the WTO to target our economic system & model. So we can look forward at more tensions this year because state capitalism is 'unfair' and should be changed to the Anglo-Saxon neoliberal economical model of free market with a very inactive (''small''') government that only build roads and toilets and does have not other economical, industrial and technological ambitions (governmental hands-off approach). They have likely postponed hostile trade actions for a few weeks because of the Russo-Ukraine war.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
Oh well, simple solution to this problem. The USA confiscates all of China's dollar denominated reserves, China nationalizes all USA companies in China, and then completely demand that all goods from China to the USA is to be paid for in gold and every single member of the US government is to be sanctioned and any property that is owned by any member in the US government or there backers in Asia or near China will either be confiscated or simply bombed to ash and then after that, work with the middle east and Russia to convince them that all of there goods should be valuable enough to be traded in something more worthwhile then the dollar that is basically toilet paper, I mean the USA should have gold right unless well the real truth is that they actually don't have any. And of course, dump all of the US treasuries onto the open market and let the stock market and US economy collapse over night and let the USA basically suffer its first true blow that is guaranteed to really harm the US populous and ensure that this time around, they get the point that maybe, angering China is not a smart move at all, I mean they should have learnt this in regards to Russia but then again the average US citizen is too stupid to live.
So if the USA is willing to suffer a real true blow that is going to be like punching a man full force in the balls, then the USA had better start losing weight because a fat man falling down is liable to suffer a heart attack from the fall. I know Russia hasn't really gotten started yet but well if Russia cannot make the USA behave themselves through force, then maybe China would have to outright cut off all resources and then some so that they can finally take a hint
Cheers, if they dare do the same for China, then two can play that game. Other strategies/moves than what is mentioned that China could do, is to completely unrecognize all US patent, or refuse payments for them. They could also try maximizing the chaos by allow foreign business with exception to US, to apply similar patents or obtain them for cheap, pitting the business elites in EU and other parts of the west against each other for a share of the pie.

Without being held back by copyrights and patents, China can flood the market with exact imitation products, crashing the market for luxury brands.
 
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