Will Russia accept the status of "Little Brother" in the China-Russia relationship? China did not subordinate foreign nations before Western industrialization, but it did have an 'Imperial Tributary system' where China was the 'Big Brother' and rest of the nations were 'Little Brothers', or even as a 'Father-Son' relationship with certain kingdoms like Joseon Korea. Not literally subordinate like a vassal.
Not literally subordinate, but the perception of 'junior status' in the relationship. Example, we joke amongst ourselves that UK is the junior lapdog of US in the US-UK relationship, but in reality, it's a sovereign-sovereign voluntary alliance with a huge economic/power disparity. Any long-term "alliance" between China-Russia would need mutual respect, but also recognition of defacto huge economic/power disparity.
Ukraine is an independent sovereign nation that can decide its own fate and future, I don't see anything wrong per se, unless you believe Ukraine should be part of USSR/Russia forever and breakup of USSR was an error in history.
This isn't comparable to Taiwan because Taiwan was never an independent sovereign country like Ukraine was (China never recognized Taiwan independence, but Russia recognized Ukraine independence).
The closest analogy would be Mongolia, an independent nation that is formerly part of Qing/ROC that PRC has formally recognized as independent. Hypothetically, IF Mongolia tried to enter into Mongol-American treaty alliance with prospect of US troops on Sino-Mongol border, then I agree, it makes sense for China to fck Mongolia up so she comes to her senses. So yea, if China annexed a strategic slice of Mongolia in response to Mongol seeking US alliance, then yes, I say that is "justified" on strategic grounds, but technically still is imperialistic annexation.
I agree, the cultural/history pull of geography is undeniable. The difference is Russia formally recognized Ukraine's independence as a separate nation in 1989 with a legally-binding agreement. China never recognized Taiwan's independence, so they are not comparable.
I agree with you, in the closest analogy of Mongolia seeking a US-Mongol alliance with US troops on China border, then Mongolia has zero critical thinking and needs to be SLAPPED with offensive military force so she knows her place and gives China proper respect. However, that would still an imperialist action by China since China recognized Mongolia's independence as sovereign nation.
Geopolitics is a lot more complicated than only Geographic Determinism. What about economic interests? What about historical memories of colonization/annexation by Russia? Geopolitics is multifaceted and to render it only down to geography is an oversimplification. China can just the same justification to annex Mongolia based on geography and loose historical connections.
So I agree 100% with you that by virtue of geography, smaller powers should defer to larger powers in terms of national security interests. (e.g., no THAAD in Korea because it disrupts the balance of power of bigger nations like China/Russia, or Cuba should not host any Soviet naval or missiles bases near US mainland)
Where we diverge is that larger power's national security concerns override all of smaller power's national security and economic interests solely based on geography and ethnic/racial kinship. The problem is that ignores economic interests (closer EU ties because EU is richer), ignores the momentum of history (Ukraine colonized by Russia, doesn't want to repeat that again), and ignores the independent status of Ukraine (Russia recognized Ukraine as an independent nation).If Russia wants Ukraine to stay in its's influence/orbit, it needs to offer economic benefits and promise to safeguard Ukraine's national sovereignty. You can't rely on the "Hard Stick" approach without offering "Carrots". Ironically, Russia's annexation of Crimea will push Ukraine even more into Western influence, because Russia offers fewer economic benefits while presenting itself as an military threat.
Whether you think Ukraine is capable of critical thinking is up to you, but Russia recognized Ukraine as an independent sovereign state in 1989 in a legally-binding treaty, so even if Ukraine's actions is suicidal and we don't like it, we have to respect it because it's an independent country according to Russia and United Nations. This is not even comparable to Taiwan where Taiwan isn't even an independent nation.
100% agree wholeheartedly. I don't want China to be dragged into an Middle East or Eastern European quagmire and potentially nuclear WW3 by putting all eggs into one basket with Russia.