Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
Chinese EV would sell like hotcakes in the US just like Japanese cars did back in the 80s; Sandy Munro would be right.
Except he forgot about geopolitics. US would allow Chinese EVs to take over the American market and collect data on US consumers?
@ansy1968 bro, is Sarah running for the presidency or is she running to be the VP of Bong Marcos? Wouldn't there be a cause for some animosity between the Duterte camps and Marcoses if Sarah were to elect to run for the national leadership considering that they have some sort of familial relationship.@Bellum_Romanum bro the plot thickens
2 hours ago — The daughter of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on Tuesday removed herself from the running for mayor of Davao City, just days away ...
3 hours ago — MANILA -- Sara Duterte, who leads opinion polls to succeed her father Rodrigo Duterte as president, said Tuesday she is dropping her ...
Yes this really isn't decoupling at all but his article is fairly decent (for what we expect... at least not Indian levels of stupid and outright lies) and relatively honest (but still way off the comprehensive truth).
He talks about the reasons why Australia's economy has not been scratched at all despite Chinese reducing purchases. The core reasons are also basically why Trump's trade war on China also did nothing to China. China is making more money from the US than before Trump's trade war. Australia is making more money from China mostly because of iron ore prices skyrocketing in the last few months. If not for iron ore prices and rising commodity prices, Australia would lose only a little money from Chinese reducing purchases.
Trade wars don't work even when you have trade deficit. That's not how trade works at all as we've discussed in this forum when Trumps started his.
To be sure though, China is in a much better position as evidenced by:
1. China's trade and money made from US has been skyrocketing for a few years now.
2. Australia didn't and isn't wearing China's trade war on it anywhere near as well because it's only doing well now due to commodity prices. If not for commodities going up so much across the board, Australia would have lost money BUT it is as he mentioned, not that much money.
US trade war on China made China more money. China's trade war on Australia is just going to dent Australia a tiny bit. Unless China doesn't need Australian ore at all anymore and reduce other purchases even further. China has barely fired shots at Australia to be honest. This feels like nothing because it is nothing much. China just put up some import restrictions but still buy heaps of stuff from Aus. The musical chairs analogy is true to only a limit. I'm not surprised he didn't provide a comprehensive analysis and only giving the most ideal pieces of info to suit the narrative.
Australia's export is 40% from China and 60% elsewhere. China made that 40% go down to let's say 30% and Aus used "musical chairs" way to find other customers for the 10% BUT musical chairs like he said doesn't work for many other products. Australia is at the moment lucky that commodities are up but everything is up as well.
Australia is really only covering with excuses but the real proof of the hurt is appreciation and inflation. AUD is getting increasingly worthless and buying fewer and fewer things every day. The dollar is getting less valuable, standard of living is reducing in economic terms (lucky industries science and tech is doing the modern age heavy lifting), cost of living is "going up". These are the real proof of just the slight waves being made in Aus China trade. All he's done is switch the numbers and provided a distraction. It's a sleight of hand academically but thoroughly dishonest in this way because it presents a 1 dimensional view of a 4 dimensional issue. Either he is intentionally dishonest or an idiot. Both equally likely.
The danger for Aus is that this kind of inability to comprehend the full set of realities is that it leads decision makers down bad paths for both itself and trade partners. China wants Aus coking coal and iron ore. It needs those things. But China has been giving Aus 40% when it could easily give Aus just 20% let's say without ANY downside to China (buy only what China needs ie coking coal and ore).
This 20% loss is basically like saying if you earn 100K a year and suddenly you only earn 80K. You can't find the other 20K. Musical chairs don't work for everything... maybe the reshuffling gets you another 5K or even 10K back but the loss of 10% is HUGE for a country. This is what China will surely be doing and is on the path to doing. Decoupling. It just hasn't even really fired the big shots at all. When they ban students then we'll know it's serious but that's unlikely to deteriorate to that unless it's war.
Aus makes the most money after selling raw materials in selling degrees to dropkick students who just party and want a degree to show parents and nothing more because those kids overwhelmingly cannot get into any universities in China. Only maybe 1 in 10 are serious about an academic and professional career in their selected field, the rest are there to get a piece of expensive paper and then take over the family business or just party without working at all since they're already rich enough. This is the real ammunition and contributes 100s of billions to Aus in degree farms and spending from those big spender students. Every cent is an injection and the amount of fees and insurances and whatnot the Aus gov forces every student to pay is in the 10s of thousands per degree length while their degrees are 100s of thousands.
Right now Aus doesn't feel anything because China's only taken it from 40% down to 35% and commodity prices are being considered for some reason. It's really all an opportunity cost. They would have been making MUCH more money if not for China's trade war.
If China pulled the big shots it would take at least 10% clean off Australia's annual exports. That's like a person going from 100K annual income to 80K and living costs at the same or increasing. It won't hurt them that much but they would have been much better off otherwise. That's the real issue. Australia would have been much better otherwise but Atlanticism and Indo-Pacificism taking over the politics and individuals there.
This 20% loss is basically like saying if you earn 100K a year and suddenly you only earn 80K. You can't find the other 20K. Musical chairs don't work for everything... maybe the reshuffling gets you another 5K or even 10K back but the loss of 10% is HUGE for a country. This is what China will surely be doing and is on the path to doing. Decoupling. It just hasn't even really fired the big shots at all. When they ban students then we'll know it's serious but that's unlikely to deteriorate to that unless it's war.
Aus makes the most money after selling raw materials in selling degrees to dropkick students who just party and want a degree to show parents and nothing more because those kids overwhelmingly cannot get into any universities in China. Only maybe 1 in 10 are serious about an academic and professional career in their selected field, the rest are there to get a piece of expensive paper and then take over the family business or just party without working at all since they're already rich enough. This is the real ammunition and contributes 100s of billions to Aus in degree farms and spending from those big spender students. Every cent is an injection and the amount of fees and insurances and whatnot the Aus gov forces every student to pay is in the 10s of thousands per degree length while their degrees are 100s of thousands.
Right now Aus doesn't feel anything because China's only taken it from 40% down to 35% and commodity prices are being considered for some reason. It's really all an opportunity cost. They would have been making MUCH more money if not for China's trade war.
If China pulled the big shots it would take at least 10% clean off Australia's annual exports. That's like a person going from 100K annual income to 80K and living costs at the same or increasing. It won't hurt them that much but they would have been much better off otherwise. That's the real issue. Australia would have been much better otherwise but Atlanticism and Indo-Pacificism taking over the politics and individuals there.
@Bellum_Romanum Bro the opposition want to disqualify Marcos with numerous tax cases to slow his campaign, it forces Sarah hand , I had already predict this scenario from the start
since the two of them are really good friends and the family are close due to Duterte unabashed admiration of the father and the Marcos grateful for allowing him to be buried in the HERO Cemetery. It's also a clamor that the people wanted and Sarah is young, ceding to VP slot is a good experience for her in holding a national office. OF course we have to acknowledge that it was plan by the maestro himself Duterte the kingmaker. @ougoah The Australian economy stopped growing after the trade restrictions China enabled. And you say it isn't a problem for them?
Perhaps the overall exports in dollars are the same because of commodity price increases, but the trade restrictions mean a lot of sectors are in a world of hurt. Perhaps Rio Tinto and BHP are doing fine but they aren't the whole economy. I also expect China to diversify their resource base further in the future. Just the other day I posted here about new railways and ports being built in Siberia to ship coal to China, and there are similar lines being built in Mongolia as well.
China, as it is, already has managed to basically cut coal imports from Australia to close to zero, and in 5 years because of those projects, it will go to zero. The iron ore supply issue is more severe but I have little doubt they will work on it.
Perhaps the overall exports in dollars are the same because of commodity price increases, but the trade restrictions mean a lot of sectors are in a world of hurt. Perhaps Rio Tinto and BHP are doing fine but they aren't the whole economy. I also expect China to diversify their resource base further in the future. Just the other day I posted here about new railways and ports being built in Siberia to ship coal to China, and there are similar lines being built in Mongolia as well.
China, as it is, already has managed to basically cut coal imports from Australia to close to zero, and in 5 years because of those projects, it will go to zero. The iron ore supply issue is more severe but I have little doubt they will work on it.
This isnot right, export numbers have been supported by high prices for iron ore, and now China has crushed the price of ore. Once the new lower prices feeds into trade numbers we will see dramatic reductions.
Foreign Policy is complete propaganda, China is going to humiliate Australia.
This is the real lesson for other countries… If you attack China, China will eat your lunch and ignore you. Until you beg for forgiveness.
Get ready for fully automated iron ore mines around the world that have lower cost basis than Australian ore.
Is this worth a fly-over?