FriedRiceNSpice
Major
I would disagree. I believe external forces can hasten the demise of a state, but most states fall due to internal reasons. Economics has been the foundation of strength and stability for every state.
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- Thread starter bd popeye
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I don't think you're looking at this objectively.
If you go in with the preconceived notion that the Trump administration is incompetent and will self-destruct the US, then naturally everything looks like a step in that direction. But if you stepped back and looked at the situation from a purely objective perspective, and assume the US plays its cards rationally, then there are many effective strategies.
I am not so convinced the Trump administration will commit national suicide. The Iran war has obviously gone beyond their initial expectations (ie, Iran has proven more resilient than they expected), but there's still plenty of ways to grind it out.
US foreign policy will be a disaster though. Total economic collapse of allies is on the cards. Russia is playing hardball in energy markets now: premium pricing for oil instead of discounts, take it or leave it. And the US East Asian allies don't get any oil from Russia, so that cannot save them.
It has also shown US promises to be hollow - the US cannot escalate further against Iran due to capability, not because of willpower limits. If it does not have the capability to defend its allies, then hitting bases located on them is basically free. Give them 1000 cope excuses to sit it out and they'll take it.
You are talking about yourself dude. I am talking about how the oil is universally priced, common sense type shit,
And then you are asserting as a fact that clown like Trump could exercise enough power to force the mega corps,
To lower the oil prices. But such a power of government vs mega corps play didn't happen for decades in America.
Just look at the 2008 financial crisis. To me, it looks like you are just hoping for some outcome instead of analyzing.
If they could rein in their mega corporations, then the US wouldn't find itself in such a precarious situation today.
No, there are no strategies for them to get out of this situation regarding Iran.
They either pull back and suffer a massive reputational loss or stay in and collapse.
Why? What is it about Trump that reassures you of this?
No, there are no ways. The MIC won't abandon its inefficient cash cow weapons after achiveing complete state capture for decades, SPR won't magically refill, the US population won't magically support this war, the historic political polarization won't magically disappear, the near 40$ trillion of national debt won't magically vanish, the Hormuz won't magically open, Iran won't magically get a regime change or fragmentation.
The "mega corporations" don't control the US, the financial elites who sit on their board of directors, do. What do the financial elites want? That is the question you should ask yourself especially since the Middle East is involved, and the most powerful members of that financial elite just so happen to have vested interests in the Middle East.
We'll just see, then.
I don't see the Iran war sinking the US. I predict one of two things will happen: 1) Iran and the US will make a face-saving deal (less likely, but it can happen as the war starts to drag), or 2) the US will organize a coalition of the "willing" from its shell shocked vassals to help it grind out this war. After all, the economies of half the world are essentially shot if Iran continues to disrupt oil supplies and the Strait of Hormuz, that *is* something that virtually everybody has an incentive to address, and if they can't convince the US to back off, then the only alternative is helping the US end it (because let's face it, they're not going to help Iran).
They want to be able to sell their crude oil for $150 or $200 a barrel anywhere in the world, if it is the internationally quoted price due to the prolonged Hormuz closure at a given time.
However, I foresee maybe some face-saving symbolic price decrease, for Trump, bringing it down a few percentage points for the US economy.
But keep in mind that the oil was $60-$70 a barrel before this war started.
Hard to come back anywhere close to that number in war, but super necessary for the continuation of the US as a stable nation in this climate.
That is the best way the US can continue existing for a year or two more.
Remember how this went?
On his recent podcast, he said Iran will be in ruins and US will be out of Mideast. That leaves Israel the only regional power in Mideast.
I am thinking the world will look like this in the future.
US will rule the Western Hemisphere, Europe will rule Africa, Israel rule Mideast, while China and India rule Asia.
FriedRiceNSpice
Major
What do you think the goals of the financial elite are?
What I'm looking at is Southeast Asia. Japan and South Korea rely alot on Gulf oil, but both at least have 1 year of reserves. Southeast and South Asian countries in contrast only have 1-3 months, and while India at least can buy Russian oil to offset the losses, Southeast Asia especially Vietnam are screwed. This will heavily impact their manufactering centers and I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the production that China lost over the years to them ends up coming back as a result.
FriedRiceNSpice
Major
But if the other economies of Asia and the European economies are put in dire straits due to the oil crisis- I would expect a decreased demand for Chinese exports.