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pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
Who is this Professor Jiang?

Professor Jiang Predicts: US WILL LOSE Iran War​


I watched it. Professor should read more about Saudi economy. I dont expect him to understand Soft Power.
Every battle Royal has won and this conflict will further enhance Arabic Soft Power.
And the power dynamics between Israel and Russia is changing and this will shape world order nothing to do with Iran.
You have to read history of Science and Academia to understand this change and why former Israeli PM came to Putin with cooperation offer in Science and Technology and that Putin invitation to specific Europeans that were from former Soviet Union.
 

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
They're not wrong.

The US retains the capacity for global violence, to a degree that China can hardly match.

Being peaceful has its benefits, but when push comes to shove, as Mao said, "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." Anyone familiar with Chinese (or in general, world) history understands that states are never started or ended by economics. It's always by an army.

But having an army with a global reach is one thing, using it properly is another. Defeating the Iranian regime is not as easy as just dropping a couple thousand bombs. Four years after it began, Russia has still to conquer Ukraine despite the latter being absolutely devastated by Russian bombardment and artillery. A third of the Ukrainian population has been displaced, yet Ukraine still stands.

What seems certain is the US is not going to get out of its own "Ukraine" with a quick victory. It's going to have to grind.

This is a very, very different situation from Russia and Ukraine. For once, the US is 10,000 km logistically away from Iran, and lacks the historic or cultural legitimacy for its war, making it extremely unpopular among people, and under existential threat due to Iran being capable of putting the petrodollar system and US economy to its knees. If this war prolongs, the US will collapse faster than Iran (esp. since they are so united now).
 

Eventine

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is a very, very different situation from Russia and Ukraine. For once, the US is 10,000 kilometers away from Iran, and lacks the historic or cultural legitimacy for its war, making it extremely unpopular among people, and under existential threat due to Iran being capable of putting the petrodollar system and US economy to its knees. If this war prolongs, the US will collapse faster than Iran (esp. since they are so united now).
I see no danger of the US "collapsing" faster from Iran. The US is self-sufficient in oil, and if Iran does close the Strait of Hormuz and/or threatens Middle Eastern oil production for a prolonged period of time, it'll actually be the US's allies and rivals that suffer the most. The damage to India, Europe, Japan, etc. will be immense, and the US will be able to hold them hostage over the supply of oil from the American continent, which will become the main global pipeline, and just so happens to be under the US's "new Monroe Doctrine."

There is little those countries can do about this, since the US controls maritime access to the American continent, so the US will be able to dictate to them what they must pay and do - ie if the US wants Japan or Korea or Germany to build weapons for its war, they will hardly have a choice now that the US holds their economic life line. Desperate people are much better workers.

The only country that can kind of throw a wrench in this is Russia, if Russia orchestrates a grand bargain with the US's allies in Europe and/or Asia to get them out of the US's orbit. But that doesn't seem like something Russia can presently do and in any case, all of the countries I mentioned are so deeply tied to the US empire that they can hardly extricate themselves.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I think it would be reasonable for China to consider this G2 thing. Under the condition that all military bases in Japan and SK be relinquished to Chinese control and all military command decisions of Japan and SK will now be under the purview of the PLA. Otherwise, no deal.
Free Okinawa. Japan annexed Okinawa in 1879.

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Free Hokkaido. Japan annexed Hokkaido in 1869.

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Okinawa should return to being an autonomous region of China and Hokkaido should be a federal republic of Russia.
 

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
The US is self-sufficient in oil

What does this matter if the oil is 150-200$ a barrel, wtf? You know that the oil is universally priced, right? The US will also have to pay those same prices. Moreover, they literally went into this war expecting it to be over in a few hours or days, not refilling the SPR.

There is little those countries can do about this and so the US will be able to dictate to them what they must pay and do - ie if the US wants Japan or Korea or Germany to build weapons for its war, they will hardly have a choice now that the US holds their economic life line. Desperate people are much better workers.

The US already controlled these vassals for decades, dude, there is no 4D chess anywhere.

Those vassals don't matter; they are increasingly irrelevant completely.

You need to separate western paper economy from the real economy.

This is why, despite the Ukraine war raging for 4 years,

They have not meaningfully expanded their surge capacity; in fact, the opposite is now true.

The energy crisis in Europe and the rare earth embargo for the US will now make it even harder.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I see no danger of the US "collapsing" faster from Iran. The US is self-sufficient in oil, and if Iran does close the Strait of Hormuz and/or threatens Middle Eastern oil production for a prolonged period of time, it'll actually be the US's allies and rivals that suffer the most. The damage to India, Europe, Japan, etc. will be immense, and the US will be able to hold them hostage over the supply of oil from the American continent, which will become the main global pipeline, and just so happens to be under the US's "new Monroe Doctrine."

There is little those countries can do about this, since the US controls maritime access to the American continent, so the US will be able to dictate to them what they must pay and do - ie if the US wants Japan or Korea or Germany to build weapons for its war, they will hardly have a choice now that the US holds their economic life line. Desperate people are much better workers.

The only country that can kind of throw a wrench in this is Russia, if Russia orchestrates a grand bargain with the US's allies in Europe and/or Asia to get them out of the US's orbit. But that doesn't seem like something Russia can presently do and in any case, all of the countries I mentioned are so deeply tied to the US empire that they can hardly extricate themselves.
By US rivals, if you mean China, Russia and North Korea, that's not quite true.

China has oil production, North Korea is sanctioned from world oil markets anyhow, and Russia benefits greatly from high oil prices since its federal budget depends much more on oil prices than the US, while the US depends on low oil prices to fuel its car centric lifestyle.

US allies that have 0 oil production will suffer economic collapse, IJA style.
 

Eventine

Senior Member
Registered Member
What does this matter if the oil is 150-200$ a barrel, wtf? You know that the oil is universally priced, right? The US will also have to pay those same prices. Moreover, they literally went into this war expecting it to be over in a few hours or days, not refilling the SPR.
You realize the US can implement an export ban/restriction any time it wants, right? Price controls are nothing new - China uses it all the time and as an oil producer, the US can easily control the domestic price of oil (provided it deems this to be beneficial, obviously Trump doesn't care that much about the average American so he might let the price of gas inflate by 50% domestically and 500% globally).

The US already controlled these vassals for decades, dude, there is no 4D, but it doesn't matter, they are increasingly irrelevant completely.

You need to separate western paper economy from the real economy. This is why despite the Ukraine war raging for 4 years, they have not meaningfully expanded their surge capacity; in fact, the opposite is now true.

The energy crisis in Europe and the rare earth embargo for the US will now make it even harder.
Since Trump, the US hasn't really been involved in Ukraine. Europe is, but Europe is only there in a half-hearted manner despite all the rhetoric. Ultimately, they're not desperate enough, because the threat of a Russian conquest has receded year after year (Russia has hardly made substantial gains in the last six months), so they're just letting it slide, especially with Trump looking to make a deal with his best former buddy Putin to split Ukraine.

With Iran, though, the US is directly involved, and it has an incentive to not just let it slide, so I reckon the incentives are much more aligned and the pressure will be much, much higher on the "allies."
 

TPenglake

Junior Member
Registered Member
I see no danger of the US "collapsing" faster from Iran. The US is self-sufficient in oil, and if Iran does close the Strait of Hormuz and/or threatens Middle Eastern oil production for a prolonged period of time, it'll actually be the US's allies and rivals that suffer the most. The damage to India, Europe, Japan, etc. will be immense, and the US will be able to hold them hostage over the supply of oil from the American continent, which will become the main global pipeline, and just so happens to be under the US's "new Monroe Doctrine."

There is little those countries can do about this, since the US controls maritime access to the American continent, so the US will be able to dictate to them what they must pay and do - ie if the US wants Japan or Korea or Germany to build weapons for its war, they will hardly have a choice now that the US holds their economic life line. Desperate people are much better workers.
Not a collapse in that the US economy and society will implode the same way the Hormuz blockade potentially will for the GCC, but I do forsee political strife if the conflict is prolonged until the midterms. For all his muscular foreign policy Trump's domestic front is in tatters. His tariffs have been struck down by the Supreme Court, he has dialed down on ICE raids and fired/demoted high profile immigration enforcement officials over the PR disaster of the Minneapolis operation, and the February jobs posted higher unemployment rate. Democrats have been winning special elections nationwide. And that's all on top of the Epstein files where thanks to the war, the new allegations of Trump having intercourse with a teenager was a blip in the news.

I just filled gas today and indeed, prices everywhere are up 1 dollar per gallon eventhough we're only 1 week into the war. If on top of everything, America goes into the midterms with high gas prices and inflation, the Republicans might lose badly to the point Trump faces the danger of being impeached for real. In that scenario, he will likely redeploy the US military to deal with any domestic fallout that would stem from cancelling the elections and declaring martial law.
 

Serb

Senior Member
Registered Member
You realize the US can implement an export ban/restriction any time it wants, right?

You do realise that the US is late stage oligarchy, haha?

Price controls are nothing new - China uses it all the time and as an oil producer, the US can easily control the domestic price of oil (provided it deems this to be beneficial, obviously Trump doesn't care that much about the average American so he might let the price of gas inflate by 50% domestically and 500% globally).

You have some brain problems if you compare China, a vital socialist country, with the current US.

My dude, Trump is objectively just a clown. That is not like Xi or Putin. OLIGARCHS AND MEGA CORPS run the US govt, not the other way.
 

pmc

Colonel
Registered Member
They're not wrong.

The US retains the capacity for global violence, to a degree that China can hardly match.

Being peaceful has its benefits, but when push comes to shove, as Mao said, "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun." Anyone familiar with Chinese (or in general, world) history understands that states are never started or ended by economics. It's always by an army.

But having an army with a global reach is one thing, using it properly is another. Defeating the Iranian regime is not as easy as just dropping a couple thousand bombs. Four years after it began, Russia has still to conquer Ukraine despite the latter being absolutely devastated by Russian bombardment and artillery. A third of the Ukrainian population has been displaced, yet Ukraine still stands.

What seems certain is the US is not going to get out of its own "Ukraine" with a quick victory. It's going to have to grind.
Russia soft power has increased since Ukraine conflict so why it will shortern the conflict?
This is Putin resurrecting 20 years old info to bring topic of dog. what Russia gains from this accumulation of Soft Power. It is called Character.
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Last updated: 18:41 - November 28, 2024

Putin to Merkel: "Angela... forgive me, I didn't mean to scare you with this dog!​

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Putin stated that children are always better and smarter than their parents.
The head of state answered a question about how he does not consider the country's younger generation to be degenerating
 
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