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RoastGooseHKer

Junior Member
Registered Member
Randomuser said:
Knowing Japan, they will scrape the bottom of the barrel to come up with any excuse to get USA to save them.

After all when you look at location, Japan has no friends. Even South Korea which is supposed to be its vassal colleagues doesn't like it. Its surrounded by people who want to get even with it. That puts it in a very hard spot considering all except South Korea have nukes.

Deterrence is ideal. But China really needs to be prepared to go all out for this. There are no half measures which means a lot of people will probably die.
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Japan fears nukes. Majourity of Japanese fear nukes. China has the infrastructure to and has already expanded its nuke arsenal. But its 600+ bombs are mostly ICBM and SLBM warheads aimed at the US and Russia (India to a lesser extend). Not sure if China could quickly develop a new warhead for DF-17 type medium range HGVs that could easily penetrate Japan multi-layered air defense system.

Maybe a viable strategy from Beijing’s position could be should Tokyo drop or amend the Article 9, Beijing would respond by dropping its no first use policy, as well as resuming nuclear testing (both underground AND airburst, including mating warheads to missiles in full range test like the one conducted in 1966) in Lop Nur. Keep in mind that due to China’s limitations places under the 1996 CTBT after ONLY 46 tests (but Moscow and Washington already had thousands), Beijing stands to gain the most should all great powers resume nuclear testing.
 
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Machiavelli

New Member
Registered Member
ACuriousPLAFan said:
76% of Japanese population sees improving China-Japan ties as unnecessary. In comparison, only 24% sees the opposite.

Awesome! They certainly are making their bed right now.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020678185961365905
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This is all manufactured consent by the Japanese government by actively sponsoring and engaging in historical revisionism and omissions in their historical account of WWII. The Japanese ruling elites have now created an entire generation of people completely oblivious to the role Japan played in WWII. In addition, Japan's economy is also flailing, and much of the blame and scapegoating is also put on China, hence the disproportionate percentage polled in favor of the unnecessary ties with China.

Takaichi may have been able to get the popular support to gain power, but realistically, what can she really do to improve the state of the Japanese economy since the late 1980s? Japan has been stuck in the middle-income trap for decades, and now with globalism in full retreat by the Western powers, and finding retrenchment in economic nationalism--i.e the U.S--will Japan also follow Trump's model? It certainly points to it, given Takaichi's recent statements and remarks. And, if Takaichi fails to deliver on her promise of reviving the Japanese economy, and she ends up stepping down, Japan will still be heading into a very dangerous political future that will be a direct challenge to China. Historically, severe economic stressors have been the precursors to cultivating fascist movements, as we are witnessing the current nurturing of right-wing politics in Japan--and it will continue even if Takaichi steps down--and given Japan's long practice of historical revisionism, having removed many of the barriers of guilt and horrors of war, Japan is also ripe to potentially repeat those atrocities.

Si vis pacem, para bellum -Vegetius
 
Randomuser

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
Machiavelli said:
This is all manufactured consent by the Japanese government by actively sponsoring and engaging in historical revisionism and omissions in their historical account of WWII. The Japanese ruling elites have now created an entire generation of people completely oblivious to the role Japan played in WWII. In addition, Japan's economy is also flailing, and much of the blame and scapegoating is also put on China, hence the disproportionate percentage polled in favor of the unnecessary ties with China.

Takaichi may have been able to get the popular support to gain power, but realistically, what can she really do to improve the state of the Japanese economy since the late 1980s? Japan has been stuck in the middle-income trap for decades, and now with globalism in full retreat by the Western powers, and finding retrenchment in economic nationalism--i.e the U.S--will Japan also follow Trump's model? It certainly points to it, given Takaichi's recent statements and remarks. And, if Takaichi fails to deliver on her promise of reviving the Japanese economy, and she ends up stepping down, Japan will still be heading into a very dangerous political future that will be a direct challenge to China. Historically, severe economic stressors have been the precursors to cultivating fascist movements, as we are witnessing the current nurturing of right-wing politics in Japan--and it will continue even if Takaichi steps down--and given Japan's long practice of historical revisionism, having removed many of the barriers of guilt and horrors of war, Japan is also ripe to potentially repeat those atrocities.

Si vis pacem, para bellum -Vegetius
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These elections are all about feeling good rather than doing anything big on the geopolitical stage. By voting for something that only happens in your country, you feel like you are personally sticking it to China even though it doesn't really mean anything outside your own country. Like how is voting supposed to change the fact that China holds the cards on rare earths? Will voting make that go away? Voting can't even stop immigration in countries that voted deliberately voted for anti-immigration nor has it stopped companies from continuing to outsource to other countries.

Thats why politicians just focus on emotional appeals to the average person and China bad is simple and works effectively. Just vote harder, I'm sure it will solve all the difficult problems out there magically!
 
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meedicx

New Member
Registered Member
RoastGooseHKer said:
Actually Russia would be unlike to join China against Japan. Moscow has its own calculations vis a vis China, whilst Tokyo has long offered a new realignment with Moscow against China under Abe. Russia is highly opportunistic when it comes to strategic partnership with China. Also, Moscow’s fear of Chinese influence in Central Asia, Mongolia, and Russian Far East has never gone away in spite of the Ukraine war. Once the Ukraine war ends, expect Sino-Russian Relations to cool significantly.
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Russia and DPRK have both publicly expressed strong support for China's position denouncing Japan militarism and upholding the Potsdam declaration. Russia also took part in military exercises with China inside Japan ADIZ. You don't do this if you want to fence sit. There was also a diplomatic spat between Russia and the new Japan administration with regards to the Kuril Islands.

A tri-front war against Japan is not an impossible scenario.
 
Chevalier

Chevalier

Major
Registered Member
PandaAI said:
China should bring Russia and North Korea into a stronger alliance and coordinate together. Why should China fight by itself when both Russia and North Korea don’t want to see Japanese militarism revived or Japan with nukes. It’s a lot easier to get buy-in from Russia and North Korea against Japan than against anyone else. China-Russia-North Korea alliance should be made as powerful as possible to counter the US-Japan alliance.

I hope this will finally be the moment China decides to take the gloves off and go for a full scale military build up. China has the money, technology and industrial capacity to vastly expand its military power. Takaichi’s militarism revival provides the perfect excuse for China. It’s an easier sell to the rest of the world saying China will not allow Japan to destroy China again like in WW2 and China must prepare by increasing the military budget.

Previously China has been reluctant to expand the military budget to say 3-5% of GDP because it will look bad in the eyes of the world. Even domestically it will be easier to sell the military buildup against Japan. I see this as a great opportunity for China.
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Russia already has their hands full with Ukraine and North Korea is already sending troops to Ukraine, they should jump at the opportunity to settle scores with Japan though, as should South Korean.

tbh this should be a whole of east Asia thing to ally together to fight against Japan but as we’ve seen, most states are lambs and sheep, hence why I would advocate a war against Japan as a war of conquest with the archipelago to be held in perpetuity by the people’s republic of China.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2020694281011486985

it would be appropriate for this traitor to live long enough in a prison cell seeing the glorious rejuvenation of the Chinese nation as prison guards piss in his meal tray.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
RoastGooseHKer said:
In doing so, JSDG could initially sink several PLAN vessels. Such an action could invite PLARF strikes against Japan’s main islands and vessels, which would in turn would activate the U.S.-Japan mutual defense treaty. That is something Beijing needs to figure out how to deter.
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Do tell, Japs will sink PLAN warships with what?

Why China wants to deter Japan from intervening? PLA is too weak to defeat the combined might of US and Japan?
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
RoastGooseHKer said:
Japan fears nukes. Majourity of Japanese fear nukes. China has the infrastructure to and has already expanded its nuke arsenal. But its 600+ bombs are mostly ICBM and SLBM warheads aimed at the US and Russia (India to a lesser extend). Not sure if China could quickly develop a new warhead for DF-17 type medium range HGVs that could easily penetrate Japan multi-layered air defense system.
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Seriously dude, spend some time on various sections on this very forum to see where PLA is at. There is no need to use nukes to defeat US and Japan.
 
FriedButter

FriedButter

Brigadier
Registered Member
T

Thecore

Junior Member
Registered Member
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