Therefore, we may need to accept several realities:
1. China will face severe aging in the future, accompanied by a significant decline in its total population, while the domestic market will experience gradual contraction.
2. China's pool of engineers, combined with automation, is sufficient to sustain its long-term, exceptionally robust and massive industrial base. Against the backdrop of automation, China will neither lack industrial labor nor engineers. As long as China can secure domestic or international order demand, its manufacturing sector can rapidly achieve production of any industrial product.
What I envision is China attempting to transition toward a communist society by the 2060s—meaning the complete abandonment of real estate and certain basic consumer industries. Marriage, childbirth, housing, childcare, and all ordinary living costs would be fully covered by the government. All production would be handled by robots—a factory that once required 100,000 workers would need only one person. Talent would be concentrated in high-end laboratories and research institutes, and the birth rate would rebound to 2.1 over the next century.
Agree overall. I think abandonment of real estate can come a lot sooner than 2060. Real estate market slump? I'd step on the pedal and drive it all the way to zero. Suddenly Chinese don't need to save money to buy a house anymore, then you'll see what the true potential of purchasing power Chinese market has.
The way I see it, there is an unfair distribution of wealth in the system. Housing doesn't cost that much to build, why are they so expensive? Industrial products such as EV, countless engineers and workers toil to make it possible not to mention the materials, why are they so cheap? This needs to be balanced.
No doubt it is going to be extremely painful to implement, I can already hear the home owners screaming murder. Maybe such a move will only be possible after China won the fight on this planet.