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uguduwa

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sardaukar20 said:
Naah man, China is not Japan. China is nobody's puppet. I dare say that a screwed up Japan is doing way better than that Supapowar India. They have a fraction of the population and workforce, yet still maintain a much better overall economy.

Nobody in the real world shares your pessimism for automation. Automation works and it's gonna be the death knell of the overhyped, under skilled "demographic dividend" of India. After more than 11 years of Make in India, this nation still has a lower percentage of manufacturing in the GDP compared to Vietnam. This is shameful.

India has roughly a decade left to catch the last train to industrialization. After that, it's the middle income trap. But India's education system has been disaster, and not getting any better. It's current workforce cannot even compete with SEA in manufacturing.

With automation, SEA and East Asia will maintain a massive industrial lead over India. Companies would take automation over unskilled, undisciplined workers anytime. This is the harsh reality. India better get it's act together NOW. Stop bad mouthing other countries and start working hard. There isn't much time left.
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Not sure about India but Japan is hanging by a thread. A conflict in Persian Gulf is enough to finish off its economy for example. Otherwise it would slowly die off. East Asia would just shine for a short time and fade into irrelevance and this century would be just another American century. US in its lowest point still manage to dominate the whole world and it‘s only a matter of time until it gets more competent leaders.

Indicators only show that China‘s good times are over. It‘s repeatedly failing to achieve its consumption targets which will only get worse with an ageing population and its massive trade surplus would soon bring trouble abroad because other countries would do more to protect their industries.
 
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uguduwa

Junior Member
Registered Member
sutton999 said:
China has 850m 16-59 years old.
China has 320m born after 00, the whole developed world has 200m. So China will not have a shortage on young people for next 30 years.

Population decrease is desirable for China in general, 1.4B is way too much.
Of course, China needs to work on increase birth rate from now on.
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It‘s not the absolute number of young people that matter but the ratio of workers to dependants.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
sutton999 said:
China has 850m 16-59 years old.
China has 320m born after 00, the whole developed world has 200m. So China will not have a shortage on young people for next 30 years.

Population decrease is desirable for China in general, 1.4B is way too much.
Of course, China needs to work on increase birth rate from now on.
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The reason Trump is going full retard right now with the ICE thing is because they are terrified that there won’t be enough WASP babies in the near future.
 
M

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
FriedButter said:
In other news, US Pharma is going to start hiking everyone else drug prices by xxx% to please Trump (and their Yachts.)

The Eunuch Union will 100% bend their toes instead of their knees and pay US fraud prices.



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If you don't supply you're product, you can't claim damages from patent infringement. It's an opportunity for Chinese companies to supply generic versions of drugs that are still on patents
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
uguduwa said:
Not sure about India but Japan is hanging by a thread. A conflict in Persian Gulf is enough to finish off its economy for example. Otherwise it would slowly die off. East Asia would just shine for a short time and fade into irrelevance and this century would be just another American century. US in its lowest point still manage to dominate the whole world and it‘s only a matter of time until it gets more competent leaders.

Indicators only show that China‘s good times are over. It‘s repeatedly failing to achieve its consumption targets which will only get worse with an ageing population and its massive trade surplus would soon bring trouble abroad because other countries would do more to protect their industries.
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The latest data indicates that in terms of actual consumption of goods and services, China is twice the size of the USA.

And the studies indicate that historically, the leader in implementing advanced technology ends up with the highest wages and living standards.

In other words, the Chinese wages and living standards still have to at least double in size to reach US levels.

Exports only account for 10-20% of China's overall manufacturing, so the trade surplus could disappear, but won't change the long-term trajectory.
 
PopularScience

PopularScience

Senior Member
Registered Member
uguduwa said:
Not sure about India but Japan is hanging by a thread. A conflict in Persian Gulf is enough to finish off its economy for example. Otherwise it would slowly die off. East Asia would just shine for a short time and fade into irrelevance and this century would be just another American century. US in its lowest point still manage to dominate the whole world and it‘s only a matter of time until it gets more competent leaders.

Indicators only show that China‘s good times are over. It‘s repeatedly failing to achieve its consumption targets which will only get worse with an ageing population and its massive trade surplus would soon bring trouble abroad because other countries would do more to protect their industries.
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India is done. No employment.
 
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sutton999

Junior Member
Registered Member
uguduwa said:
Not sure about India but Japan is hanging by a thread. A conflict in Persian Gulf is enough to finish off its economy for example. Otherwise it would slowly die off. East Asia would just shine for a short time and fade into irrelevance and this century would be just another American century. US in its lowest point still manage to dominate the whole world and it‘s only a matter of time until it gets more competent leaders.

Indicators only show that China‘s good times are over. It‘s repeatedly failing to achieve its consumption targets which will only get worse with an ageing population and its massive trade surplus would soon bring trouble abroad because other countries would do more to protect their industries.
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You need to form your own thoughts, instead of following what has been pushed in the media lately.

China is just getting started on higher value chain. Car export rising only a few years, high-end chips, medical, aviation etc. on the horizon.

Younger Generation Chinese is way more educated than the older generation.

High savings, 90%+ house owning and rural area is going to provide cushioning for the retirees. Percentage of people on pension is way smaller than a typical developed country.
 
Sardaukar20

Sardaukar20

Major
Registered Member
uguduwa said:
Not sure about India but Japan is hanging by a thread. A conflict in Persian Gulf is enough to finish off its economy for example. Otherwise it would slowly die off. East Asia would just shine for a short time and fade into irrelevance and this century would be just another American century. US in its lowest point still manage to dominate the whole world and it‘s only a matter of time until it gets more competent leaders.

Indicators only show that China‘s good times are over. It‘s repeatedly failing to achieve its consumption targets which will only get worse with an ageing population and its massive trade surplus would soon bring trouble abroad because other countries would do more to protect their industries.
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If India continues on its current trajectory, it will truly be screwed. Japan and East Asia have completed industrialization. India, despite having a massive headstart over China in 1947 have not.

Which is worse? A highly skilled but aging workforce that could leverage AI and automation to maintain productivity? Or masses of underskilled, ill-disciplined workforce who cannot find work after missing out on the final industrialization train? The answer is very obvious.

The world is undergoing another industrial revolution powered by AI and robots. India is on course to miss out on this. In the last industrial revolution powered by coal and steam, there were nations who were left out, and they have suffered horrendously for it. China is in a far better place this time. You should worry much more about India's future.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
horse said:
This is a very dangerous situation IMHO.

All they need is some kid setting off fireworks, as a joke, and the civil war could start.

That is why the call it the fog of war. Words so true from Clausewitz.

Trigger happy armed forces everywhere on the streets in volatile situations. Like what can go wrong?

If Trump does not understand these things, then someone in the chain of command should have the common sense to tone it down. But no.

They want it.
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Nah, this is America we are talking about.

Trigger happy paramilitary forces on the streets and massive civilian deaths to law enforcement is so normalised and routine that kids getting machine gunned by the police/ICE/national guard wouldn’t even raise an eyebrow over there.

If the kids were setting off fireworks at the police, the overwhelming response of the American public would be FAFO.

For there to be civi war, you need two sides willing and able to go to war against each other. The left in America will put up as much of a collective fight as the Jews in 1930s German. Why do you think Trump chose the Republicans? They are the ones with the overwhelming majority of guns, make up the overwhelming majority of militias and contribute the most non-coloured members of the military.

In a clash between groups with guns and groups with placards, the guns win every single time. But such clashes don’t classify as wars, just massacres.
 
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