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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
GulfLander said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1992029595475042335
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Sanae Takaichi’s spending plans have sent Japan’s bonds and currency tumbling, raising the specter of an unruly capital flight reminiscent of the turmoil that nearly broke the U.K. bond market in 2022, according to Deutsche Bank’s global head of currency research.
Japanese government bonds are falling at the same time as the yen, reflecting concerns that the new prime minister’s stimulus plans, amid a dovish stance by the Bank of Japan, will worsen the country’s fiscal health.
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Given that China is certain that Japan will intervene in Taiwan AR operation, it would seem prudent for China to utilize this economic downturn of Japan to further push it down economically and thus reduce its war potential
 
T

tamsen_ikard

Captain
Registered Member
Overbom said:
Given that China is certain that Japan will intervene in Taiwan AR operation, it would seem prudent for China to utilize this economic downturn of Japan to further push it down economically and thus reduce its war potential
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If they are certain that Japan will interfere in Taiwan, then they should impose an ultimatum to retract or start bombing the JSDF. Make Trump choose if they want to die for fascist Japan or give up. I think if China puts enough pressure, Japan will oust Takaichi and replace with a dovish PM.
 
Phead128

Phead128

Major
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
This is why Taiwan isn't just a local affair, it's going to draw in Korea, Japan, US broadly, because US is going to force their allies to contribute. It's really about the entire security architecture of East Asia, led by US that needs to be booted out of Korea/Japan at this point.
 
plawolf

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Overbom said:
Given that China is certain that Japan will intervene in Taiwan AR operation, it would seem prudent for China to utilize this economic downturn of Japan to further push it down economically and thus reduce its war potential
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What’s more likely to spook capital markets? A slightly spicy budget or a nuclear superpower openly talking about invoking UN clauses that basically allows it to launch a full conquest of the Japanese home islands legally?

The western MSM will obviously downplay the latter and claim it’s all the former, but anyone with half a brain to see what the prime mover of Japan’s capital flight really is. And that’s precisely the point.

I don’t think anyone in Beijing or even China who has seriously researched and considered the matter would be at all surprised if Japan joined America in directly intervening in AR. That’s basically conventional wisdom for the last half century at least.

So Japan is somewhat justified in feeling perplexed that Beijing would react so strongly to it saying the quiet part out loud.

I think in time, this episode will come to be recognised as the first concrete sign of China’s shifting diplomatic and geopolitical game plan, where China has relaxed its stance from purely playing defence as it has done for decades, to incorporating proactively offensive moves into its repertoire going forwards.

Before, you can do things to salami slice Chinese bottom lines with little threat of any real and lasting consequences. But in this instance, Beijing is seizing on a serious, but ultimately minor offence to inflict real economic damage on Japan.

Beijing will not need to seize this Japanese economic downturn to hurt them more because deliberately triggering the capital flight and economic downturn was part of its plan from the very start. And if I am right, this is just the start. China can basically use Japanese pride and stubbornness to dial up the pressure and damage as much as it likes from here. Every few days it can demand a formal Japanese apology, and when the Japanese angrily reject the demand, announce new and harsher economic penalties. Even if Japan does apologise, Beijing can still continue to pile on the pressure and damage by rejecting the apology as insincere.

We are in the Dawn of a new age.
 
Randomuser

Randomuser

Captain
Registered Member
Phead128 said:
This is why Taiwan isn't just a local affair, it's going to draw in Korea, Japan, US broadly, because US is going to force their allies to contribute. It's really about the entire security architecture of East Asia, led by US that needs to be booted out of Korea/Japan at this point.
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Seems no half measures. Once China is in this war, it has to go all the way until the end.
 
Puss in Boots

Puss in Boots

Junior Member
Registered Member
plawolf said:
What’s more likely to spook capital markets? A slightly spicy budget or a nuclear superpower openly talking about invoking UN clauses that basically allows it to launch a full conquest of the Japanese home islands legally?

The western MSM will obviously downplay the latter and claim it’s all the former, but anyone with half a brain to see what the prime mover of Japan’s capital flight really is. And that’s precisely the point.

I don’t think anyone in Beijing or even China who has seriously researched and considered the matter would be at all surprised if Japan joined America in directly intervening in AR. That’s basically conventional wisdom for the last half century at least.

So Japan is somewhat justified in feeling perplexed that Beijing would react so strongly to it saying the quiet part out loud.

I think in time, this episode will come to be recognised as the first concrete sign of China’s shifting diplomatic and geopolitical game plan, where China has relaxed its stance from purely playing defence as it has done for decades, to incorporating proactively offensive moves into its repertoire going forwards.

Before, you can do things to salami slice Chinese bottom lines with little threat of any real and lasting consequences. But in this instance, Beijing is seizing on a serious, but ultimately minor offence to inflict real economic damage on Japan.

Beijing will not need to seize this Japanese economic downturn to hurt them more because deliberately triggering the capital flight and economic downturn was part of its plan from the very start. And if I am right, this is just the start. China can basically use Japanese pride and stubbornness to dial up the pressure and damage as much as it likes from here. Every few days it can demand a formal Japanese apology, and when the Japanese angrily reject the demand, announce new and harsher economic penalties. Even if Japan does apologise, Beijing can still continue to pile on the pressure and damage by rejecting the apology as insincere.

We are in the Dawn of a new age.
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It would be wonderful if China did that. My only concern is that China's current demand is simply for Japan to retract its previous provocations, and then everything will return to normal. I have a strong feeling things will develop that way.

I've been pondering whether China has truly reached a point of no return. We all know that escalating diplomatic incidents are often influenced by the domestic environment. China's economic difficulties clearly haven't reached the point where an external conflict is needed to divert attention, and its domestic politics are quite stable, with no need to create an additional enemy for immediate confrontation.

My conclusion is that China might use this diplomatic conflict to deter countries attempting to provoke China on the Taiwan issue. If Japan yields, then apart from the United States, no other country will dare to provoke China on the Taiwan issue. This will create a relatively stable international environment for China's economic development. I hope I'm just overthinking things.
 
4

4Tran

Junior Member
Registered Member
Overbom said:
Given that China is certain that Japan will intervene in Taiwan AR operation, it would seem prudent for China to utilize this economic downturn of Japan to further push it down economically and thus reduce its war potential
Click to expand...
The problem with this is that China doesn't want to invade Taiwan to begin with. It would only do so if Taiwan were to cross a red line, and this is getting less and less likely. Japan's position is an irritant, but not much more than that so it's not necessary to go out of the way to hurt Japan. That said, not necessary is not the same thing as not wanting to.

plawolf said:
What’s more likely to spook capital markets? A slightly spicy budget or a nuclear superpower openly talking about invoking UN clauses that basically allows it to launch a full conquest of the Japanese home islands legally?

The western MSM will obviously downplay the latter and claim it’s all the former, but anyone with half a brain to see what the prime mover of Japan’s capital flight really is. And that’s precisely the point.

I don’t think anyone in Beijing or even China who has seriously researched and considered the matter would be at all surprised if Japan joined America in directly intervening in AR. That’s basically conventional wisdom for the last half century at least.

So Japan is somewhat justified in feeling perplexed that Beijing would react so strongly to it saying the quiet part out loud.
Click to expand...
Basically every Japanese prime minister knew that Beijing would react strongly if they said the quiet part out loud. And every other world leader paying attention to the Taiwan situation for that matter. That's why they always avoided saying it!

plawolf said:
I think in time, this episode will come to be recognised as the first concrete sign of China’s shifting diplomatic and geopolitical game plan, where China has relaxed its stance from purely playing defence as it has done for decades, to incorporating proactively offensive moves into its repertoire going forwards.

Before, you can do things to salami slice Chinese bottom lines with little threat of any real and lasting consequences. But in this instance, Beijing is seizing on a serious, but ultimately minor offence to inflict real economic damage on Japan.

Beijing will not need to seize this Japanese economic downturn to hurt them more because deliberately triggering the capital flight and economic downturn was part of its plan from the very start. And if I am right, this is just the start. China can basically use Japanese pride and stubbornness to dial up the pressure and damage as much as it likes from here. Every few days it can demand a formal Japanese apology, and when the Japanese angrily reject the demand, announce new and harsher economic penalties. Even if Japan does apologise, Beijing can still continue to pile on the pressure and damage by rejecting the apology as insincere.

We are in the Dawn of a new age.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. 2025 is the year where basically everyone has to acknowledge that China is a true superpower. The problem is that there aren't many ways to express this newfound status, and then in comes willing victim #1. And really, Japan is the ideal victim. It's a big established power with a strong reputation, but one where China has a historical grievance. It also helps that Japan is more vulnerable now than it has been in decades, and they just happened to make enemies of everyone in East Asia as well.

The funny thing about all this is that China was willing to build a new relationship with Japan after Takaichi took power. Having closer ties to Japan could be useful, but Japan as a target is much better. I think that a lot of Western-aligned countries have been taking advantage of the fact that China was mostly bark and little bite so politicians could use it as boogeyman for drumming up support. But this Takaichi situation is an opportunity to show that there can be real consequences.
 
Nevermore

Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
At least for now, I see no possibility of Japan retracting its controversial remarks. Japan may continue to play dead on this issue. The pressure China is currently exerting on Japan remains too weak, and the current cabinet approval ratings also indicate that Sanae Takaichi has little incentive to backtrack on her statements. China needs to conduct more military exercises near Japanese waters to demonstrate its resolve and continue imposing economic sanctions on Japan.
 
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