Honestly after NATO d*ck try to reach Asian Pacific i think now good time to sell tons of weapons for Russian. You know money from selling weapons still is money. See how much NATO and EU seethe is part of fun, beside getting a lot money of course.
That's not a great strategy. China's near term diplomatic goal should be to to reinforce the split between the US and its allies. They don't need to like China, they just need to move closer to China and farther from the US. To that end, ideally China would try to convince them they have their back while simultaneously trying to convince the US and it's got its hands full taking on America. This would make both the US and its allies think they have a stronger hand, thus making it less likely for them to come to an agreement.
Trump needs to have a sanguine assessment of the hand he's got, and realize that he needs to lose some to win some. The US IMO should roll back the aggressive stance against its allies, including especially the threats of invasion, and find a face-saving compromise so it can focus on China and its periphery.
I would add Panama to the folded
I would also add Taiwan to folded
ROK change into the folded category, due to the shipbuilding co-op and shipbuilding offers
I would watch public sentiment more then government/politician interactions, because if the concession are too heavy then whoever is in control of the government may soon find themselves out of the government one way or another.
ROK has been angling for the shipbuilding deal well before the tariff war, it's the American shipyards' wrath they have to contend with. Rather than folding I think they're trying to take advantage of the situation and trying to get a better deal for themselves.