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daifo

Major
Registered Member

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
The tariffs clearly have brought them to the table, which was the intention. Trump’s whole thing is getting other leaders into bilateral negotiations on trade with the threat of tariffs. If the tariffs are truly toothless because it’s just a tax on US consumers, why didn’t other countries just ignore them?

IMO we are leaning too much in the direction of tariffs just being self-sabotage. Yes, they hurt both sides, but many of the exporting nations that rely on US consumers can’t just pass tariffs onto US consumers without losing volume, as US consumers have finite budget & will just stop buying. So they’ll end up having to accept lower margins to keep business flowing, even if the US doesn’t have a replacement.

The US’s “partners” are incentivized to keep the US consuming because their whole business model is built around it and they have no alternative markets by which to extract profits.
The “pause” just nuked the Hegemon’s negotiatio position. I doubt Trump can extract much out of other countries.
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Folks, I don't know who needs to hear this, but the idea that foreigners selling US treasuries is somekind of "threat" was always bogus. The US doesn't need anyone to buy its domestic debt. The Fed can always monetise the debt. It can just push a button. Same as in any other country. The people raising the bogeyman of foreigners selling US treasuries need to read up on MMT theory. If your central bank is sovereign, then there are no real threats here.

I doubt Trump can extract much out of other countries.
I think you underestimate the desperation of non-China East Asian countries. Their entire growth model is based on exports to the world, and most of that is going to the West. Japan is a perfect example of that. Hell, this is a problem even for many European countries who have relied on US consumers to a much larger extent than they should have.
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
The “pause” just nuked the Hegemon’s negotiatio position. I doubt Trump can extract much out of other countries.
This I agree with. The vassals were reaching out to negotiate only for the US to suddenly get cold feet, which indeed strengthens their negotiating position and they’re probably laughing right now. I don’t think Trump is winning by this move, just for the record, but countries other than China were indeed starting to cave before he blinked.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
This I agree with. The vassals were reaching out to negotiate only for the US to suddenly get cold feet, which indeed strengthens their negotiating position and they’re probably laughing right now. I don’t think Trump is winning by this move, just for the record, but countries other than China were indeed starting to cave before he blinked.
By starting to cave, did you mean the FTA they were proposing, or Japan dumping treasuries and forced US to capitulate, or retaliatory tariffs from EU coming into effect today?

Also you realize for 70 countries to be talking to them as they claimed, it would require islands with no human inhabitants phoning up WH to talk trade...
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
By starting to cave, did you mean the FTA they were proposing, or Japan dumping treasuries and forced US to capitulate, or retaliatory tariffs from EU coming into effect today?

Also you realize for 70 countries to be talking to them as they claimed, it would require islands with no human inhabitants phoning up WH to talk trade...
Didn’t Japan & South Korea both propose to buy more US energy? Didn’t their leaders came out & said they would not retaliate as China did? Both of them spoke to Trump the day before, so they most certainly did reach out to negotiate and did not coordinate with China on joint action as was claimed.
 

iewgnem

Senior Member
Registered Member
You know, right now my company can import Chinese tools, materials and parts, assemble them into the final product, and sell that product to the US for minimal tariff, while my company's American competitor now has to pay 125% tariff on that same Chinese tool, material and parts.

Guys I think American manufacturing is screwed unless he tariff everyone or folds on China....
 
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