Miscellaneous News

GZDRefugee

Junior Member
Registered Member
At the core, China is not actually retaliating over tariffs. They're taking advantage of US scoring an own goal to push for an even stronger position.

With the 34%, I think it's mostly theater from Xi. It's not like China would have wanted to buy much from US before anyways. The real action is in the addendum, the sanctions. Why sanction US though when US is effectively sanctioning itself for free already? Well because as the prediction expert Xi and his cabinet are, they already know US will grant exemptions.
If that's the case, playing the rare earths card was a bad idea. It would effectively be tipping off China's hand with a combo that loses value when played in parts. Either you hit 'em with the royal flush and end the game or you hold the entire combo for later.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
If that's the case, playing the rare earths card was a bad idea. It would effectively be tipping off China's hand with a combo that loses value when played in parts. Either you hit 'em with the royal flush and end the game or you hold the entire combo for later.
Rare earths isn't the royal flush yet. There are bigger cards to play.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
If that's the case, playing the rare earths card was a bad idea. It would effectively be tipping off China's hand with a combo that loses value when played in parts. Either you hit 'em with the royal flush and end the game or you hold the entire combo for later.
This isn't a card game, it's a war. The Art of War says that you should leave an opening for enemies to escape through, so that you can control their movements and slaughter them at a lower cost to your own strength.

As an example: as sanctions force every necessary goods/components to move through one or two companies, the hand of the market dictates that those companies will be able to impose additional profits, thus making their competitors not competitive. But what if those chosen companies have poor innovation and weak results, yet are manipulated into market leaders by sanctions? You'd hurt the whole potential of the enemy industry.

And when later push comes to shove, you can close the lifeline and also sanction those companies. Or you can do worse. You can crush them with lawfare. They're non competitive, so they won't put up much of a fight. But your sanction has also turned them into the enemy national champion, so when you crush them, you completely crush the whole enemy industry.
 

supercat

Major
There is an upper limit how much damage tariffs can do to China's economy, no matter how high they are.

China and other countries can strike back by imposing tariffs on America's service exports.

Trump has exposed America’s world-leading firms to retaliation​

At companies from Alphabet to Goldman Sachs, bosses will be holding their breath

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

A stunning number of electric vehicle, battery factories are being canceled​

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
G1h1khz.gif
 

GZDRefugee

Junior Member
Registered Member
This isn't a card game, it's a war. The Art of War says that you should leave an opening for enemies to escape through, so that you can control their movements and slaughter them at a lower cost to your own strength.

As an example: as sanctions force every necessary goods/components to move through one or two companies, the hand of the market dictates that those companies will be able to impose additional profits, thus making their competitors not competitive. But what if those chosen companies have poor innovation and weak results, yet are manipulated into market leaders by sanctions? You'd hurt the whole potential of the enemy industry.

And when later push comes to shove, you can close the lifeline and also sanction those companies. Or you can do worse. You can crush them with lawfare. They're non competitive, so they won't put up much of a fight. But your sanction has also turned them into the enemy national champion, so when you crush them, you completely crush the whole enemy industry.
IMO, the US will not lose outright even if several industries are crushed. Kicking things off with a hard shot lets China seize the initiative and dictate the pace of this trade whole of society war. Further opportunities for exploit open up if the US is dealing with disruption shock and is forced to address internal issues. The goal is to force the US into a USSR situation.
 

tokenanalyst

Brigadier
Registered Member
There is an upper limit how much damage tariffs can do to China's economy, no matter how high they are.

China and other countries can strike back by imposing tariffs on America's service exports.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
G1h1khz.gif
I think the biggest danger is not from the tariffs themselves but a total collapse of demand by US consumers, if people in the US are willing to pay the tariffs and keep consuming at the same level the effect of tariffs will be closer to zero BUT if there is a total collapse in consumer demand and consumer confidence, that could, no necessary but could create a domino effect in the global economy bigger than individual country tariffs.
 
Top