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mossen

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Laviduce said:
The far-right US neocon/neolib establishment , i.e. the real ideological power in the US, will NOT willingly abandon its vassal states and Quislings in Europe.
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I'm not so sure. I think the US calculates that Europe has painted itself into a corner with its irrational Sinophobia and thus the US can afford to offend its vassals as they have no real alternative. Moreover, despite all the talk about a EU federation, Europe is still mostly just smaller countries in a loose co-operative structure. Collective action problems are the norm, not the exception.

The only real option for Europe would be to approach Putin and Xi to create leverage against the US, but that would require genuinely sovereign governments. Since Europe does not have those, the US has great latitude to do what it wants.

Also, remember that the recent warming up to Russia is aimed at splitting off China and Russia from each other. The US state dept has already removed any references towards opposing Taiwanese independence. Trump may be gearing up for a conflict in Asia by winding it down in Europe.
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Foreign Affairs is saying this..
Backpedaling begins
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The Taiwan Fixation​

American Strategy Shouldn’t Hinge on an Unwinnable War​

U.S. leaders need a way to escape the ghastly decision to either wage World War III or watch Taiwan go down. They need a third option. Washington must make a plan that enables Taiwan to mount a viable self-defense, allows the
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to assist from a distance, and keeps the U.S. position in Asia intact regardless of how a cross-strait conflict concludes. This way, the United States could abstain from sending its military forces to defend Taiwan if China invades the island and does not attack U.S. bases or warships.
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The
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should launch an effort now to make this third option viable.
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Yet U.S. policymakers must also accept that, without direct U.S. military intervention, Taiwan may manage only to stall a Chinese invasion, not repel one. The United States therefore needs to insulate its regional interests from Taiwan’s fate. Instead of clarifying its commitment to defend Taiwan, Washington should retain an ambiguous stance and downplay the importance of keeping the island out of Beijing’s hands.
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It should, meanwhile, bolster the self-defenses of its other Asian allies and partners, blocking any path for China to convert a successful bid for Taiwan into regional dominance. At home, U.S. politicians and analysts should speak frankly about the cost of a war with China and push back against the misguided idea that the United States’ survival and prosperity turn on Taiwan’s political status. Through a policy of firm but limited support for Taiwan, the United States can avoid involvement in a world-rending war while putting China off a risky invasion—and safeguarding U.S. interests if an invasion comes anyway.
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Nevertheless, for the foreseeable future, the benefits of preserving Taiwan’s de facto self-rule do not warrant the enormous human and economic costs of a U.S.-Chinese war. The United States’ vital interest lies in preventing China from attaining untrammeled regional hegemony in Asia. With such dominance, China could project large-scale military power into the Western Hemisphere or cut the United States off from Asia’s dynamic economic markets.
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But controlling Taiwan would not, in itself, transform China into a hegemon. The United States would remain capable of rallying a counterbalancing coalition to impede any potential Chinese bid for political and military supremacy in Asia.
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