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Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
What about Korea?

OK, so you say that insurgents fight like in Afghanistan, right? Just so we are clear, the Taliban had no air force, no tanks, no artillery. They fought as light infantry teams that blended into the terrain. This is an insurgency. Do you agree?
The initial phase of the war (in 2001), was a straight up conventional force on force war. After the US defeated the Taliban standing armed forces overwhelmingly, it then became an insurgency when the rest of the Taliban went into hiding and started striking at the US with (mostly) guerilla-style tactics, interspersed with rare force on force engagements, which it overwhelmingly lost; a very similar situation to Vietnam.

I must be mistaken. I am unaware of insurgents flying Mig-21s with more fighter aces and shooting down enemy planes with 2:1 kill ratios? Were the Taliban flying Migs and shooting down planes with SAMs? Please answer, what insurgency is equipped with fighters, SAMs, tanks, etc?

What was the air to air kill ratio in Afghanistan, against an insurgency? What was the air to air kill ratio in Vietnam, supposedly an 'insurgency'?

Please answer for me, very simply: do you see more names affiliated with "North Vietnam" or do you see more names affiliated with "United States" on the list of air to air fighter aces?

I'm also curious, why would the US be scared of invading North Vietnam directly? Surely that would be a conventional war and they'd win a conventional war so why did they choose to allow 'insurgents' to shoot down 10k planes?

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Please answer for me, very simply: what was the total air-to-air kill ratio in Vietnam, and why in light of that would I even give one flying frack how many aces from which side are listed on a table? Here, let me help you:

The Air Force had a Vietnam War total of 137 kills.

Air Force planes of all types on air-to-air missions had an overall 3.8-1 kill ratio for the entire war. In an apples-to-apples comparison with the F-86s in Korea, the Air Forces’ MiGCAP F-4s in Vietnam had 5.5-1 kill ratio, with a very strong upward trend toward 15-1 during the the final five months of the war, greatly exceeding the Korean War results of 10-1.

The Navy’s kill ratios—involving a much smaller number of engagements—were 4.7-1 for aircraft of all types during the entire war, 6.4-1 for MiGCAP missions during the entire war and 8.7-1 for MiGCAPs in the Topgun era.

Freed up by Teaball to be more aggressive without fear of ambush, the MiGCAP force did spectacularly well, shooting down 15 and losing only one. In short, when the Air Force was afforded conditions similar to those that helped the Navy, the results of the two services were very similar.

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The problem for your argument is again that the North Vietnamese employed both conventional and unconventional (guerilla warfare) tactics against the US military. This is in the same vein of warfare used by the Taliban. The US overwhelmingly tends to win straight up force-on-force engagements, while suffering a death by a thousand cuts on the receiving end of an insurgency-style war.

I don’t think all of that was just hindsight. Instead, I believe the Russians initially underestimated the sheer level of resistance they would face from Ukrainians, along with the deep-seated hostility toward their rule. This miscalculation is why the offensive on Kyiv failed.
You said the offensive on Kiev was a feint for the purpose of "deflecting" from their (true) eastern offensive. Have you changed your mind, then?

At the same time, they also underestimated their own ability to sustain the war economy and withstand Western sanctions. Likewise, they overestimated the West’s financial capacity to wage economic warfare and its industrial strength to sustain a prolonged conflict.
On this we could agree.

At some point, I think Putin recognized the long-term advantages of engaging in protracted warfare in Eastern Ukraine (the ones I mentioned in the last post), which is why they avoided overcommitting there and went slowly.

So, even if Trump hadn’t come into office in 2024, I believe Russia would have still preferred this strategy moving forward; And what about the 2028 elections? What about Taiwan? What about the West’s continued decline?

In the end, Putin and Russia have gained significant leverage, which is why Trump is making so many concessions in these talks.
Putin certainly has come to see that Western sanctions have limited value, and that Russia's economy is more resilient than the West, or perhaps even Putin, believed initially. But this is certainly to have been a conclusion come to by hindsight, not as you say, as a strategy set from the beginning to bleed Europe.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
You said the offensive on Kiev was a feint for the purpose of "deflecting" from their (true) eastern offensive. Have you changed your mind, then?

@pmc Said this. I never did. I just said that slow-grind after focus to the East was purposeful, not due to some extra inabilities you exaggerate, and positive. I said that for the first time on this topic here. Plan A failed, but Plan B was victorious and accomplished even more than Plan A.

But this is certainly to have been a conclusion come to by hindsight, not as you say, as a strategy set from the beginning to bleed Europe.

Again, @pmc said this. But I also agreed that it was not hindsight entirely, but after the war shifted entirely to Eastern Ukraine, Putin realized that slow-grind was more beneficial in part due to the bleeding of Europe, but more so the benefits it brought Russia internally. So, my position is that the planned offensive on Kyev clearly failed, but further actions were not only triumphant but also not hindsight and mostly planned.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
What about Korea?
It was defeated by PVA. US-SK forces started at almost the border of Yalu River and was driven back to the 38th parallel by Chinese PVA.
The initial phase of the war (in 2001), was a straight up conventional force on force war. After the US defeated the Taliban standing armed forces overwhelmingly, it then became an insurgency when the rest of the Taliban went into hiding and started striking at the US with (mostly) guerilla-style tactics, interspersed with rare force on force engagements, which it overwhelmingly lost; a very similar situation to Vietnam.
I must've missed where the Taliban had tanks and aircraft. Please let me know the Afghan Air Force and armored corps ORBAT in September 2001.
Please answer for me, very simply: what was the total air-to-air kill ratio in Vietnam, and why in light of that would I even give one flying frack how many aces from which side are listed on a table? Here, let me help you:

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What a very long cope article. The total kill ratio is even more accurate. You can scroll down to "total losses" if you want to check.

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In total, the United States military lost in Vietnam almost 10,000 aircraft (3,744 planes,
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5,607 helicopters
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and about 1,000 UAVs.
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Claimed by
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: 154 MiG aircraft lost through all causes, including 131 in air combat (includes 63
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, 8
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and 60
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)
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A microcosm of the tactical air picture is in the US's premier offensive air mission, Operation Linebacker:

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US: 134 aircraft lost in combat or operational accidents
North Vietnam: U.S. claim: 63 aircraft shot down

US lost 1:2 in this single engagement.

The problem for your argument is again that the North Vietnamese employed both conventional and unconventional (guerilla warfare) tactics against the US military. This is in the same vein of warfare used by the Taliban.
North Vietnam had no insurgency. The insurgency was South Vietnamese sponsored by North Vietnam but not North Vietnam themselves. Viet Cong were southern citizens, not northern citizens.

In fact, US forces, per your own admission, never went into North Vietnam. How could North Vietnam have an insurgency if US forces weren't there?

The only action of PAVN vs. US was conventional: air defense, air to air, and conventional battles like Khe Sahn where 40k soldiers were involved on each side. I don't think a battle with 40k soldiers, artillery and tanks is 'insurgency'. As for who won Khe Sahn, I'll let the US's own numbers do the talking.

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US figures (21 January – 9 July): 12,000+ casualties
(2,800–3,500 killed, 9,000+ wounded, 7 missing, 250+ captured)
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North Vietnamese figures: 1,436 wounded (before mid-March)
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2,469 KIA (from 20 January until 20 July 1968).
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The US overwhelmingly tends to win straight up force-on-force engagements, while suffering a death by a thousand cuts on the receiving end of an insurgency-style war.
lol.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
@pmc Said this. I never did. I just said that slow-grind after focus to the East was purposeful, not due to some extra inabilities you exaggerate, and positive. I said that for the first time on this topic here. Plan A failed, but Plan B was victorious and accomplished even more than Plan A.



Again, @pmc said this. But I also agreed that it was not hindsight entirely, but after the war shifted entirely to Eastern Ukraine, Putin realized that slow-grind was more beneficial in part due to the bleeding of Europe, but more so the benefits it brought Russia internally. So, my position is that the planned offensive on Kyev clearly failed, but further actions were not only triumphant but also not hindsight and mostly planned.
Nobody plans trench-style war on purpose. If your plan A was to decapitate Zelensky and force a regime change in your favor, and your Plan B was a trench-style war that is bleeding both sides dry, then no, I would say that Plan B is a spectacular failure compared to plan A.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Nobody plans trench-style war on purpose. If your plan A was to decapitate Zelensky and force a regime change in your favor, and your Plan B was a trench-style war that is bleeding both sides dry, then no, I would say that Plan B is a spectacular failure compared to plan A.
Plan A didn't involve 4 annexed territories + positive regime change + all those internal and external benefits I listed, it involved just regime change (1 of the 3). Also, even if that was the case, and what you said is true, nothing in life is ideal, for example, think about what the US wanted to do with Ukraine, and what they got in the end. Instead of collapsing Russia into different smaller countries (through economic and military warfare), they got the biggest trans-Atlantic fracture so far in history since WW2 and scrambled to end the war after the exhaustion.
 

jiajia99

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think the US military needs to reestablish credibility in the eyes of the citizens in their own country and in their vassal states. They need to win a war in order to do that, I think Syria is the best choice. The US military needs to go in there and obliterate all those "terrorists" HTS i.e. Al Qaeda, ISIS, turkish proxies and who ever the US doesn't really like. This move wouldn't be opposed by either Russia or China and would have the moral support of most countries.

Only after the US establishes an outstanding victory on the battlefield, can the US military enact painful reforms within after.
They won’t do that, that’s too smart for them to do
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
It was defeated by PVA. US-SK forces started at almost the border of Yalu River and was driven back to the 38th parallel by Chinese PVA.
And then what happened? BTW, if MacArthur had his itchy radioactive trigger fingers unrestrained by Truman, we wouldn't even be talking about any Chinese victory in the Korean War.

I must've missed where the Taliban had tanks and aircraft. Please let me know the Afghan Air Force and armored corps ORBAT in September 2001.
They absolutely had tanks and aircraft, so yes, you missed it: "By 2001, Pakistan was providing the Taliban regime in Kabul with hundreds of advisers and experts to run its tanks, aircraft and artillery, thousands of Pakistani Pashtuns to man its infantry and small units of its Special Services Group commandoes to help in combat with the Northern Alliance."

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Let me know if you missed anything else.

What a very long cope article. The total kill ratio is even more accurate. You can scroll down to "total losses" if you want to check.

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A microcosm of the tactical air picture is in the US's premier offensive air mission, Operation Linebacker:

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US: 134 aircraft lost in combat or operational accidents
North Vietnam: U.S. claim: 63 aircraft shot down

US lost 1:2 in this single engagement.
I love how you love to perseverate on Operation Linebacker as a "microcosm" of the air war, as if one single engagement and some magical handwaving can somehow extrapolate it to the entire air war over the course of the Vietnam War. But yeah sure, you go on with your bad self, own that linebacking battle, and just go ahead and ignore the inconvenient details like overall air-to-air combat ratios.

North Vietnam had no insurgency. The insurgency was South Vietnamese sponsored by North Vietnam but not North Vietnam themselves. Viet Cong were southern citizens, not northern citizens.

In fact, US forces, per your own admission, never went into North Vietnam. How could North Vietnam have an insurgency if US forces weren't there?
Oh come on, look at you spindoctoring with semantics. That's about as hilariously ridiculous as saying "no, No, NO! I stuck you with a shiv, NOT a knife. Get it straight!" LOL, as if the VC were almost like a different species of human, just so you can spin some nonsensical argument out of an irrelevant distinction.

The only action of PAVN vs. US was conventional: air defense, air to air, and conventional battles like Khe Sahn where 40k soldiers were involved on each side. I don't think a battle with 40k soldiers, artillery and tanks is 'insurgency'. As for who won Khe Sahn, I'll let the US's own numbers do the talking.

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As I said, Vietnam involved both conventional force-on-force AND insurgency. Not sure how you missed that, but I did say it actually TWICE in my last post.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
Plan A didn't involve 4 annexed territories + positive regime change + all those internal and external benefits I listed, it involved just regime change (1 of the 3). Also, even if that was the case, and what you said is true, nothing in life is ideal, for example, think about what the US wanted to do with Ukraine, and what they got in the end. Instead of collapsing Russia into different smaller countries (through economic and military warfare), they got the biggest trans-Atlantic fracture so far in history since WW2 and scrambled to end the war after the exhaustion.
Plan B didn't involve any "regime change", since as far as I know Zelensky is still the president; it didn't involve any internal or external benefits since nobody predicted them beforehand. Plan A could easily have involved annexing 4 territories, since a friendly Ukrainian leadership could easily have "sued" for peace by allowing Russian occupation of the eastern oblasts.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Plan B didn't involve any "regime change", since as far as I know Zelensky is still the president;
Zelensky is about to be replaced very soon as a part of the ongoing settlement process with Trump's govt. He can either peacefully retire somewhere with some money that he stole or be purged or even executed. Nazi leaders will stand trial and nazism will be banned. UKR will face massive demilitarization and demoralization. Or else why do you think Putin is even willing to talk to Trump now that he has such an upper hand? If Trump/US ever want to recoup the money that they wasted there so far and save some face, they will have to agree with all of this. It's moving in that direction. All this 'new elections' in Ukraine business is about that.

it didn't involve any internal or external benefits since nobody predicted them beforehand.
Not beforehand, but by 2023 it should have become obvious to Putin how much it was beneficial once the data started coming in, like economic and industrial indicators, the external situation in the West, etc. Or else they would have used their full might to accelerate pace or change something else. If they were 'losing' why would they do the same thing for 2 years?

Plan A could easily have involved annexing 4 territories, since a friendly Ukrainian leadership could easily have "sued" for peace by allowing Russian occupation of the eastern oblasts.
This is true I guess. But it wouldn't have involved such a renaissance of the Russian society and economy that this later war brought to them.
 
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pmc

Major
Registered Member
Sorry, but it's not "deflection" if you just sit there immobilized for weeks and let the enemy destroy your forces at will; that's called a "slaughter". Very clearly what Putin wanted initially was a brief and violent conflict that would be ended by the ouster of Zelensky and the instatement of someone to his liking. That goal was to be achieved by the Kiev offensive. Russia didn't turn eastwards until well after it became clear that Kiev would not fall. And there is no way in hell that Russia's goal was to somehow only "partially" defeat Ukraine for the purpose of bleeding Europe; this is just too ridiculous an idea to entertain seriously.
Whether they sit weeks or months they parked junk there to attract the fire and Just the landing operations helicopters were more than 200 on first day. I am not even counting the attack chopper and fighter aircraft those numbers are classified. but what i read at time from Arabic media. it was the largest airpower demonstration for longest duration that they have seen in one place.
it does not take much to search it on youtube just recent stuff.

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Surtsukov: More than 200 helicopters took part in the landing of troops near Kyiv​

“...The Gostomel landing force, which was carried out on the first day of the SVO, involved more than 200 helicopters simultaneously from our side,” noted Surtsukov, adding that not a single transport and landing helicopter was lost then.

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