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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
The only technical thread they should be reading post Dec 26 2024 is this one:

Correct. Tech, policies and all that, are all solvable as long as political will exists.

However, it's exactly that, political will that is missing. For one reason or another, the US willingly takes these stupid actions. So even if the best analysts provided the best analysis, if the political class is rotten, nothing will happen

In that aspect, you are right. The only thing that matters for the US is Xi's Thought
 

Overbom

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Registered Member

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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Trump ready to double down on Russian sanctions, US envoy Keith Kellogg says​

increase US sanctions for Russia to bring about an end to its war on Ukraine, retired Gen. Keith Kellogg, his special envoy to the conflict, exclusively told The Post this week — but he knows both Kyiv and Moscow will have to make concessions to end the “industrial-sized” killing in Europe’s largest country.

Sanctions enforcement on Russia are “only about a 3” on a scale of 1 to 10 on how painful the economic pressure can be, Kellogg said. The US sanctions themselves — such as those targeting Russia’s lucrative energy sector — are nominally twice as high, but there is still room to ratchet them up.

“You could really increase the sanctions — especially the latest sanctions [targeting oil production and exports,]” he said. “It’s opened the aperture way high to do something.

“And if there’s anybody who understands leverage, it’s President Donald J. Trump, and you can see that with what he’s recently done [in other foreign problem-solving.]”

Last Thursday, Trump gathered his “whole confirmed team” of advisers and cabinet members focused on national security — from Vice President JD Vance to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — in the Oval Office, where Kellogg said they discussed how to use all elements of national power to end the war.

“Solving the Russia-Ukraine war is really all hands on deck for the entire administration, so a whole-of-government approach,” the general said. “We got the national security team talking about it — the president, vice president, national security adviser, secretaries of State [and] Treasury, National Security Council, working all together.”

Though Kellogg said Ukraine will need to keep up its military pressure on Russia ahead of negotiations, he lambasted former President Joe Biden’s strategy of promising to provide Ukraine aid “as long as it takes, as much as it takes” without cranking up the pressure via other elements of national power.

“That is not a strategy, it’s a bumper sticker,” he said. “At a very high level, I said, OK, [the Biden administration was] really not prosecuting the war or helping out Ukraine as well as they should have … getting Ukraine the necessary arms or strategy that at the right time.

“Working with President Trump, he saw that and and he said early on. I mean, even a year ago when I was on the campaign trail with him, we talked about the demographics, the losses and the absolute scourge of the war, and I said, ‘This is World War II levels of violence,'” Kellogg said, noting that’s why Trump is focused on using a holistic approach to end the brutal fighting.

While the president this week has floated possible deal-making with Ukraine over access to its rare earth elements critical to US national security, Kellogg said the president first “wants to stop the killing — just stop it — and then you go from there” on future negotiations.

“I think we have some opportunities, and fortunately, I’m working for the master deals,” Kellogg said. “He wrote ‘The Art of the Deal.’ I wouldn’t put anything past him.”

Still, the goal is to end the violence before negotiating such peace settlement intricacies, because “you can’t kill your way out of this war,” given Russia’s lack of interest in preventing massive losses of its own troops.

“For Russia, this is kind of in their DNA in military operations — basically, you’re in an attrition fight,” he said. “If you look at history, you’d never want to get into an attrition fight with the Russians, because that’s how they fight. They’re used to it. I mean, this is a country that was willing to lose — and did — 700,000 in the Battle of Stalingrad in six months, and they didn’t blink an eye.”

“And so the pressure just can’t be military. You have to put economic pressure, you have to put diplomatic pressure, some type of military pressures and levers that you’re going to use underneath those to make sure [this goes] where we want it to go,” he explained.

Still, the war will not end without some sort of negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, Kellogg said. In recent weeks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled he may be open to ceding some territory to Russia in exchange for security guarantees — such as NATO membership or nuclear armament.

“Very frankly, both sides in any negotiation have to give; that’s just the way it is in negotiations,” he said. “And that’s where you have to find out, ‘OK, where is this at? What’s acceptable?'”

“Is it gonna be agreeable to everybody? No. Is it gonna be acceptable to everybody? No. But you try to run this balance,” he added.

After a meeting with Zelensky at Trump Tower in September, Trump discussed the reality of bringing Ukraine and Russia to the table, noting that “not only is it time” for a peace agreement — but that an agreement could be made “that’s good for both sides,” Kellogg said.

“You have to approach that in a very pragmatic way, you know? I go back to Teddy Roosevelt and the Treaty of Portsmouth [that ended the Russo-Japanese War in 1905,]” he said. “The czar of Russia and the Japanese were ready to walk out the door [during negotiations] and Roosevelt basically got them together and said, ‘Both of you got to give a little’ and they did.

“And what happens is you get Teddy Roosevelt the Nobel Peace Prize and the war stops. So I think when you look at that, and even more recent examples, that’s just the kind of the way it is.”
Sanctions enforcement on Russia are “only about a 3” on a scale of 1 to 10 on how painful the economic pressure can be, Kellogg said.

Which sounds like they are threatening to sanction China, India, Brazil etc for trading with Russia because there isn’t anything left in Russia to sanction.
 

bajingan

Senior Member
The Lex Fridman interview had a lot of good info, but not really any stuff that isn't public knowledge. Still, it's good to hear them all collated in one place. I think the biggest takeaway is IMO the revelation of the America's overarching strategy. They all know that at the current rate, China will overtake the US in the last frontier, semiconductors, within the next 10 years or so. Their ONLY hope of remaining on top is to achieve AGI first, which will hopefully done with a big enough of a lead and result in an exponential increase in American tech that allows them to stay ahead.

From that standpoint, everything the US is doing makes sense. They don't care about sanctions making China developing faster, they don't care about neglecting other realms of tech (e.g. biotech, renewables, etc.), they just need to slow down Chinese progress in AI enough using their only advantage which is compute until they get to AGI first. The tech bros really believe that this can be done, that it can happen within the next 2-3 years, and that it'll be so powerful as to render all other tech irrelevant immediately upon its completion.
I find it intriguing when people worship AGI as if it were a God, can agi magically fix American crumbling infrastructure? fix hopelessly dysfunctional American govt? Fix its rotten education system?, purge the traitorous jewish lobby? And bring back manufacturing and make it as cost efficient as China's? Lol
 

coolgod

Brigadier
Registered Member
I find it intriguing when people worship AGI as if it were a God, can agi magically fix American crumbling infrastructure? fix hopelessly dysfunctional American govt? Fix its rotten education system?, purge the traitorous jewish lobby? And bring back manufacturing and make it as cost efficient as China's? Lol
This is fundamentally because Western culture worship gods, while Chinese culture worship mortals.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Lex Fridman interview had a lot of good info, but not really any stuff that isn't public knowledge. Still, it's good to hear them all collated in one place. I think the biggest takeaway is IMO the revelation of the America's overarching strategy. They all know that at the current rate, China will overtake the US in the last frontier, semiconductors, within the next 10 years or so. Their ONLY hope of remaining on top is to achieve AGI first, which will hopefully done with a big enough of a lead and result in an exponential increase in American tech that allows them to stay ahead.

From that standpoint, everything the US is doing makes sense. They don't care about sanctions making China developing faster, they don't care about neglecting other realms of tech (e.g. biotech, renewables, etc.), they just need to slow down Chinese progress in AI enough using their only advantage which is compute until they get to AGI first. The tech bros really believe that this can be done, that it can happen within the next 2-3 years, and that it'll be so powerful as to render all other tech irrelevant immediately upon its completion.

My read was 2-3 years to train autonomous agents with reinforcement learning for "verifiable tasks".
That means a concrete measure like searching, analysing options and then buying something on the internet

That is not the same as AGI, because many decisions/tasks:

1. have no right or wrong answer
2. nor can you train to something like "a desirable future/society"
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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Syria could allow Russia to keep its bases, new defense minister say​

DAMASCUS, Syria — Syria is open to letting Russia keep its air and naval bases along the Mediterranean coast as long as any agreement with the Kremlin serves the country’s interests, Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra said in an interview this week, underscoring the pragmatic approach taken by his government as it charts new alliances and reassesses old ones forged under the previous regime.

Russia’s attitude toward the new Syrian government has “improved significantly” since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in December, and Damascus is weighing Moscow’s demands, Abu Qasra said, signaling a dramatic shift among the former militants who make up the government.

Until recently, rebel fighters like Abu Qasra, a key leader in Syria’s insurgency, were under constant bombardment by Russian warplanes. But “in politics, there are no permanent enemies,” he said of Moscow, once Assad’s most powerful ally. Asked if Russia would be allowed to maintain its naval port at Tartus and the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Abu Qasra said: “If we get benefits for Syria out of this, yes.

In a wide-ranging interview Sunday in Damascus, Abu Qasra, 40, discussed Syria’s moves to build new military and political partnerships, its efforts to negotiate with U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, and its ambitious plans to bring the country’s plethora of armed factions, which mushroomed during the civil war, under the control of a single, unified command.

He spoke from his office in the Defense Ministry building, where the former regime’s seal has been ripped from the facade. Abu Qasra, a trained agricultural engineer, served as a first lieutenant in Assad’s military before he enlisted with the rebels, later joining Jabhat al-Nusra, a onetime offshoot of al-Qaeda.

He said he chose the group in 2013 because it fielded some of the best fighters, rather than for ideological reasons. Syria then was in the throes of full-blown civil war, after the Assad government launched a brutal crackdown on a largely peaceful uprising that started during the Arab Spring.

Now, Abu Qasra’s ministry is taking on the monumental task of rebuilding a fractured army in a country deeply scarred by more than a decade of bloodletting. Syria is also considering defense agreements with multiple countries, he said, and entering sensitive negotiations with both the United States and Turkey over the status of their established military bases here.

Russia was a major adversary during the war, intervening in 2015 to prop up Assad and his military while unleashing waves of devastating airstrikes on rebel-held regions.

But now, in addition to international legitimacy and support, the Kremlin could deliver something Syria’s new government wants badly: the former president, who fled by plane to Moscow as his rule suddenly collapsed in early December.

The defense minister, dressed in a blue suit without a tie, declined to directly confirm whether Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, requested Assad’s extradition when he met with Russian officials late last month. But the issue of holding Assad accountable was raised during the meeting, he said.

“When Bashar al-Assad decided to go to Russia, he thought that it was impossible for us to reach an agreement” with the Russians, Abu Qasra said. “Perhaps relations with them will be restored in a way that serves Syria’s interests first and then their interests,” he said.

The Russian delegation, led by Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, did not comment on whether the two sides discussed Assad’s status. “We expressed gratitude for the fact that our citizens and facilities were not damaged as a result of the events of recent weeks,” Bogdanov said of the talks with Sharaa on Jan. 28, according to Russian state news agency Tass.

He said an agreement on Russia’s military presence “requires additional negotiations.”
“So far, nothing has changed,” Bogdanov said. “We agreed to continue more in-depth consultations.”

For now, Russia, which had numerous bases and outposts across Syria, has drawn its military personnel and assets back from all but the two installations in Tartus and Latakia. They are of deep strategic value to Russia — particularly the naval base, which gives Moscow a coveted warmwater port on the Mediterranean Sea.

Syria last month terminated a contract with a Russian company to operate the commercial side of the Tartus port, according to Syrian officials, but the future of Russia’s military footprint remains unclear.

The government in Damascus is also negotiating the status of U.S. and Turkish military bases in Syria, Abu Qasra said, and new military agreements with Ankara could involve a reduction or “redistribution” of Turkish troops in the country, he added.

The issue of whether the United States will maintain a military presence in the country’s northeast is “under negotiation,” he said.

U.S. troops first entered Syria in 2015 as part of an effort to battle the Islamic State militant group, backing the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which control swaths of territory on the border with Turkey and Iraq. About 2,000 U.S. troops remain both in the northeast and at a remote base in southern Syria.

“Everyone was waiting for Trump to come to power, and the issue needs some time between the U.S. administration and the new Syrian government,” Abu Qasra said of the negotiations.

On Sunday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Jordan could come together to fight what remains of the Islamic State, allowing the United States to cut ties with the SDF. Turkey sees the predominantly Kurdish fighting force as a threat to its territory.

Since seizing power two months ago, Sharaa has set out to try to bring the Kurdish-controlled enclaves — which amount to about 25 percent of Syrian territory — back under state control.

Abu Qasra declined to comment on details of the negotiations, but he said he believes that the issue will be solved diplomatically. The government rejected the SDF’s offer to merge into the Defense Ministry as a unified bloc.

Sharaa’s goal is to ensure that the region comes under the authority of Damascus and that the government controls the prisons in the area, Abu Qasra said. “The military solution will cause bloodshed on both sides,” he said. “According to our assessment, the solution will be peaceful. We are not inclined toward a military solution.”

The SDF still runs prisons and camps for the displaced that include thousands of members of the Islamic State. Abu Qasra said that because of this, a controlled handover of power from U.S.-backed Kurdish forces was critical. But, he added, his military is ready for “any scenario.”

In an interview with the Economist last week, Sharaa said that Turkey was pushing for a “full-fledged war” in the northeast but that Syria had asked Ankara for space for negotiations.

In the weeks after Assad fell, U.S. officials said that they anticipated some level of integration between the SDF and the new government, including security and military forces, but that Syria’s Kurds would probably not end up with their own semiautonomous region. Damascus has ruled out any kind of self-rule for the area.

Abu Qasra said that about 100 of Syria’s armed factions have agreed to come under the umbrella of the Defense Ministry. There are several holdouts, he said, including Ahmad al-Awda, a rebel leader in the south who has resisted attempts to bring his unit under state control.

The groups that join the Defense Ministry’s command will not be allowed to stay in their current units, Abu Qasra said, and all factions will ultimately be dissolved.

As he spoke about the efforts to keep Syria stable, Abu Qasra pointed at the flecks of gray in his beard. “In a few months,” he said, “I will have a lot of white hair.”
But “in politics, there are no permanent enemies,” he said of Moscow. Damascus is weighing Moscow’s demands, Abu Qasra said
Asked if Russia would be allowed to maintain its naval port at Tartus and the Hmeimim air base in Latakia, Abu Qasra said: “If we get benefits for Syria out of this, yes.

I imagine this will probably end up as something similar to the support base the PLA has in Djibouti with a smaller armed presence as protection in the best case scenario. Since the need for a military presence for combat operations is greatly diminished since it will shoved off to the Turks/HTS to deal with.

I wonder if Assad should start sweating bullets.

“When Bashar al-Assad decided to go to Russia, he thought that it was impossible for us to reach an agreement” with the Russians, Abu Qasra said.

The defense minister, dressed in a blue suit without a tie, declined to directly confirm whether Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, requested Assad’s extradition when he met with Russian officials late last month. But the issue of holding Assad accountable was raised during the meeting, he said.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
The Lex Fridman interview had a lot of good info, but not really any stuff that isn't public knowledge. Still, it's good to hear them all collated in one place. I think the biggest takeaway is IMO the revelation of the America's overarching strategy. They all know that at the current rate, China will overtake the US in the last frontier, semiconductors, within the next 10 years or so. Their ONLY hope of remaining on top is to achieve AGI first, which will hopefully done with a big enough of a lead and result in an exponential increase in American tech that allows them to stay ahead.

From that standpoint, everything the US is doing makes sense. They don't care about sanctions making China developing faster, they don't care about neglecting other realms of tech (e.g. biotech, renewables, etc.), they just need to slow down Chinese progress in AI enough using their only advantage which is compute until they get to AGI first. The tech bros really believe that this can be done, that it can happen within the next 2-3 years, and that it'll be so powerful as to render all other tech irrelevant immediately upon its completion.

My read of the podcast

5 hour Podcast with Semianalysis et al below.

DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters | Lex Fridman Podcast
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Key points for me are:

1. Reinforcement learning without human input is feasible, as proven by Deepseek. Therefore agents can train by themselves on verifiable tasks eg. booking an airplane ticket, buying stuff, etc. Tech companies expect 2-3 years to develop such autonomous agents.

2. Whoever figures out how to serve up advertisements on an LLM will make a fortune

3. For Inference, output tokens are typically 4x more expensive than input tokens. Outputs have to be processed serially with ever increasing memory requirements. So for inference, total addressable memory is more important than FLOPS?

4. Nvidia cancelled orders for 2 million H20s (the China-specific GPU)

5. Stargate Phase 1 is:
a) $1 Bn for the datacentre
b) $5-6 Bn for the servers

6. Total Stargate buildout would be $50 Bn. Total cost of ownership would be $100 Bn

7. OpenAI is renting Stargate from Oracle

8. Semianalysis expect Chinese semiconductor industry to eventually catch up to world class (implied 10 year timeframe)

9. US needs to retain AI lead over the rest of the world, no matter what it takes

10. US would need 10 years and $1 Trillion to build out a world-class semiconductor capability domestically
 
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