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Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sardaukar20 said:
Trump is always coming after China. Who knows, maybe he is putting these tariffs with plans to get Canada and Mexico in line to join his crusade against China. If they refuse, then he might threaten to increase their pain with sanctions, military action, and even annexation. Twist your friends' arms, and they'll eventually obey. That's what Trump and America loves to do.

I'm predicting that Canada will fold again, like it had always done. Mexico might hold out for awhile, but should eventually fold too because America is too close, and too important economically to pick a fight with.

I think China anticipates this because it was never realistic to expect to get America's own neighbours to turn against it right now. That is why China's ultimate strategy is to go after America itself, not its satrapies. That is probably why we see the 6th gen fighter demonstrations, and the announcement of DeepSeek R1. That XHS craze was just a sweet coincidental bonus.
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It’s a gradual ramp up, same as first term Trump. He needs to first take care of the small fries before taking on China. The idea being, I’m going to show China I’m serious and won’t be stopped. Everyone else has surrendered so you should too, before it gets worse. It’s a classic kill the chicken to scare the monkey tactic. Trump will make examples of Canada, Mexico, EU, etc. This will in his mind intimidate China to negotiate since if he’s willing to do this to US allies, imagine what he’ll do to enemies.

But Beijing is not likely to fall for it. Reason? China practically invented 杀鸡儆猴 as a saying. They know exactly what Trump is doing. Trump being able to scare his allies into submission implies little as they are vassals to begin with. Killing chickens do not give you leverage when negotiating with tigers.
 
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iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
Eventine said:
It’s a gradual ramp up, same as first term Trump. He needs to first take care of the small fries before taking on China. The idea being, I’m going to show China I’m serious and won’t be stopped. Everyone else has surrendered so you should too, before it gets worse. It’s a classic kill the chicken to scare the monkey tactic. Trump will make examples of Canada, Mexico, EU, etc. This will in his mind intimidate China to negotiate since if he’s willing to do this to US allies, imagine what he’ll do to enemies.

But Beijing is not likely to fall for it. Reason? China practically invented 杀鸡儆猴 as a saying. They know exactly what Trump is doing. Trump being able to scare his allies into submission implies little as they are vassals to begin with. Killing chickens do not give you leverage when negotiating with tigers.
Click to expand...
Or China can do the funniest thing and help US allies just enough to get them both killed.
 
Sardaukar20

Sardaukar20

Captain
Registered Member
Eventine said:
It’s a gradual ramp up, same as first term Trump. He needs to first take care of the small fries before taking on China. The idea being, I’m going to show China I’m serious and won’t be stopped. Everyone else has surrendered so you should too, before it gets worse. It’s a classic kill the chicken to scare the monkey tactic. Trump will make examples of Canada, Mexico, EU, etc. This will in his mind intimidate China to negotiate since if he’s willing to do this to US allies, imagine what he’ll do to enemies.

But Beijing is not likely to fall for it. Reason? China practically invented 杀鸡儆猴 as a saying. They know exactly what Trump is doing. Trump being able to scare his allies into submission implies little as they are vassals to begin with. Killing chickens do not give you leverage when negotiating with tigers.
Click to expand...
Well it appears that Trump is still playing the same games as in his first term. This is strategic stupidity. China had dealt with Trump 1.0 and Biden. Nothing that Trump 2.0 does is gonna surprise China anymore. Not even terrorism, color revolution, economic sabotage, another bio-attack, robbery, and war. China had been preparing the worse. The real question is: is Trump and America prepared for the punishment that will come their way?
 
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iewgnem

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sardaukar20 said:
Well it appears that Trump is still playing the same games as in his first term. This is strategic stupidity. China had dealt with Trump 1.0 and Biden. Nothing that Trump 2.0 does is gonna surprise China anymore. Not even terrorism, color revolution, economic sabotage, another bio-attack, robbery, and war. China had been preparing the worse. The real question is: is Trump and America prepared for the ultimate punishment that will come their way?
Click to expand...
I wouldn't be so sure nothing Trump 2.0 does can surprise China, e.g. China would be pretty surprised if Trump literally destroys the US government then start bombing all its allies.
 
O

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
China should resist but not make too much noise. Don't go around and try to get other countries to join you in the fight against the orange tariff man. Instead let them fend off Trump on their own, let them realize the situation themselves, and then let them come to Beijing themselves and beg for help

Offering help by your own is never as important to someone as requesting and then receiving help when you are most desperate.

Canada is a lost case, Mexico maybe too (ignore their chihuahua public exclamations against Trump, in private they already follow some anti-China actions). So let them suffer, and then see if they have the political capital and willingness to come to Beijing and ask for help
 
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canonicalsadhu

Junior Member
Registered Member
Sardaukar20 said:
Trump is always coming for China. Who knows, maybe he is putting these tariffs with plans to get Canada and Mexico in line to join his crusade against China. If they refuse, then he might threaten to increase their pain with sanctions, military action, and even annexation. Twist your friends' arms, and they'll eventually obey. That's what Trump and America loves to do.

I'm predicting that Canada will fold again, like it had always done. Mexico might hold out for awhile, but should eventually fold too because America is too close, and too important economically to pick a fight with.

I think China anticipates this because it was never realistic to expect to get America's own neighbours to turn against it right now. That is why China's ultimate strategy is to go after America itself, not its satrapies. That is probably why we see the 6th gen fighter demonstrations, and the announcement of DeepSeek R1. That XHS craze was just a sweet coincidental bonus.
Click to expand...
I think this is not solely about China for Trump, but rather him being serious about re-industrializing the US. Remember that US trade deficit is near $1T of which only about 20% is with China so targeting China alone won't do much. That's why Trump is going after countries with which the US has the biggest trade deficits - Mexico, Canada, China, EU. Of course we all know this plan is bound to fail because you can't simultaneously have the world's reserve currency and develop a competitive industry.
 
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