Miscellaneous News

plawolf

Lieutenant General
No, that's way too complicated as an explanation for laymen like us.

The most straightforward answer should be that the US just lost 153 Ford-class CVNs in one day.

You can also say that's about 200-400 billion hamburgers wasted (given that a hamburger costs like 5-10 dollars on average in NYC) in one day.

Come one guys, this counting of paper imaginary wealth wipe-out is a little disingenuous and misses the bigger picture, which is the extent to which American wealth and power is based on such ‘clever’ accounting mind games and isn’t actually real.

The U.S. didn’t loose 153 Ford class carriers over this because it never ever had the means to build even 10% of that number of carriers over the course of decades.

Current US GDP and wealth figures are so divorced from reality that it actually forces the kind of crazy concentrations of wealth at the top which we see in the US or else the US economy will be in a full hyper inflation death spiral if people tried to cash out even a tiny fraction of that wealth.

Basic economic behaviour theory dictates that if you give, say $1,000 to 1,000 people living on the poverty line, they will immediately spend all or substantially all of that money as additional consumption. Whereas if you gave that $1m to one billionaire, they will just dump it with the rest of his savings and there will be no additional consumption.

Normally, if you want to boost your GPD growth, it’s most efficient to boost the income of the poorest in society because they will spend that money and generate way more growth than the initial cash injection via the multiplier effect. Which is basically the development model China has persuade.

The problem for the west is that their paper wealth creation is orders of magnitudes their physical asset production capacity. If they followed the Chinese growth model of boosting actual consumption, all it would do is lead to massive inflation as they will have too much cash wanting to buy too little physical goods, like hamburgers.

The west’s solution to that problem is to instead pump all that additional paper-only wealth in stock markets and niche elite only assets like super cars, private jets and yachts etc. Joe Six Pack doesn’t bat an eyelid at the news that yachts have gone up in price by a million percent just so long as his Six Pack is still affordable on his wage; and news that Fake-Corp stock value have grown by 50% is cause of celebration instead of concern. That, in a nutshell, is how the great America economic conn works, and how America can continue to report ever higher GDP figures even as its industrial heart is hollowed out and its people feel more economic pressure than ever before despite ever increasing wages.

When Western paper wealth creation has exceeded even the ability of its stock markets to absorb, in comes Bitcoin and all the other made up meme coins and digital assets to support the continued growth of the tech stock bubble.

DeepSeek isn’t so much as popping that gigantic bubble as it is just giving a gentle tap on the pressure valve to release a tiny fraction of the pent up pressure. This isn’t so much a Chinese economic nuclear first strike as it is a gentle demonstration of capabilities and targets.

The message couldn’t be clearer. This is the devastating China can do with a mere revelation of capabilities, what do you think the damage will be if and when China actually did make an attack?
 
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siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
So it seems like the "they have 50k H100s that they can't talk about" is gonna catch on

Both because they think it makes sense logically at a first glance (omg China would OF COURSE LIE), and also because they have incentives to believe so
Cause the hopers are gonna hope, hope, hope, hope, hope.

And the copers are gonna cope, cope, cope, cope, cope.

Baby, I'm just gonna shake, shake, shake, shake, shake.

Shake the salt, shake the salt.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
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DeepSeek Buzz Puts Tech Shares on Track for $1 Trillion Drop​

Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek’s latest AI model sparked a $1 trillion rout in US and European technology stocks, as investors questioned bloated valuations for some of America’s biggest companies.

DeepSeek’s latest AI model rose to the top of the Apple’s appstore charts over the weekend, presenting a visible challenge to costlier models like OpenAI and raising questions over the hundreds of billions in planned spending on the technology by the likes of Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc.

It also put a spotlight on AI chip producer Nvidia Corp., whose shares soared ninefold in the past two years, making it the highest-valued company in the world. The Santa Clara, California-based firm slid more than 10% in premarket trading Monday — a drop that would zap about $340 billion in market value if it were to hold in the cash session.
Nasdaq 100 futures tumbled as much as 5.2% in overnight trading before paring the loss to 3.5% as of 8:30 a.m. in New York. That marked the biggest intraday drop for the contracts since August. In Europe, tech stocks led market losses, with shares of chip equipment maker ASML Holding NV down as much as 12%. The Cboe Volatility Index, known as the VIX, surged to 21.5. The Nasdaq 100 and Europe’s Stoxx 600 technology sub-index were together set for a market capitalization wipeout of $1.2 trillion, if the losses hold.

“DeepSeek shows that it is possible to develop powerful AI models that cost less,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. “It can potentially derail the investment case for the entire AI supply chain, which is driven by high spending from a small handful of hyperscalers.”

The rout in Nasdaq futures comes at the start of a big week for earnings from major tech companies including Apple Inc. and Microsoft. Profit growth is expected to have slowed while valuations remain inflated, once again causing concern over the large AI-driven rally in the sector.

Roughly 278,000 Nasdaq 100 futures contracts changed hands by 6:18 a.m. New York time, about three times more than the 30-day average for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Read More: All About DeepSeek and Its Lower-Cost AI Model

The AI model from DeepSeek — founded by quant fund chief Liang Wenfeng — is widely seen as competitive with OpenAI and Meta Platforms Inc.’s latest offerings. Lauded by investor Marc Andreessen as “one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs,” DeepSeek’s app shows its work and reasoning as it addresses a user’s written query or prompt. Released last week, the product is now at the top of Apple Inc.’s App Store rankings, with users praising its transparency.

“Magnificent Seven companies have lofty valuations and also a very high margin outlook. Cheaper AI could squeeze these profits in the longer term. ...Capital spending on AI will likely shape tech outlooks and may overshadow otherwise robust results.”
— Heather Burke, Markets Live Editor, London.

Chinese AI-related stocks reacted positively, with mainland-listed Merit Interactive Co. among those
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by their daily limits. Merit is among those with the clearest links to DeepSeek after stating in an earlier filing that it had incorporated the homegrown AI firm’s model into marketing. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed as much as 2% ahead of Lunar New Year holidays this week.

AI trades slumped elsewhere as investors rethought assumptions on computing power and energy. Siemens Energy AG, one of the few AI winners in Europe, slid 22%.

The DeepSeek product “is deeply problematic for the thesis that the significant capital expenditure and operating expenses that Silicon Valley has incurred is the most appropriate way to approach the AI trend,’ said Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, head of consumer and internet at Singapore-based Aletheia Capital. “It calls into question the massive resources that have been dedicated to AI.”

The Nasdaq 100 is trading at 27 times estimated forward earnings, compared with its three-year average of 24 times. Nvidia is at 33 times, though that’s slightly down from its three-year average.

The DeepSeek release raises new doubts, challenging the notion that China’s AI technology is years behind US counterparts. Washington’s trade restrictions had kept the most cutting-edge chips out of China’s hands, but DeepSeek’s model was built using open source technology that is easy to access.

“While current leaders like Nvidia have a strong foothold, it is a reminder that AI dominance cannot be taken for granted,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “The emergence of China’s DeepSeek indicates that competition is intensifying, and although it may not pose a significant threat now, future competitors will evolve faster and challenge the established companies more quickly. Earnings this week will be a huge test.”

Sam Altman got his $1 trillion dollars.

Altman be praised.
 
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