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Temstar

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
9dashline said:
how many hiroshima we at already?
Click to expand...
Okay let's do a quick and dirty back of the napkin calculation. We just want to get the correct order of magnitude.

Let's say we treat the entire city of San Francisco as a single asset and we want to figure out what it's worth:
1. San Francisco's GDP was $263.1 billion in 2023
2. At this time average interest for US government debt is 3.32%

NPV of zero growth perpetuity = cash flow / discount rate

Example: suppose you have an asset that pays $10 a year in interest, and interest rate is 10%. So the value of the asset must be $100 right?

$263.1 billion / 0.0332 =7.9 trillion dollars
So that's how much San Francisco is worth in our super simplified calculation. Currently 3 trillion dollars has been wiped out, so 38% of San Francisco has been nuked.

Hiroshima bomb would do this much damage in San Francisco:
1737982404532.png
So I don't know, all that concrete building in San Francisco would stand up to the blast much better than the largely wooden buildings back in Hiroshima, maybe 3 Hiroshima bombs have already been dropped?

DeepSeek's thought on this:
Estimating the exact amount of damage in USD from dropping a Hiroshima-level bomb on San Francisco is an extremely complex task due to the numerous variables involved, including but not limited to:

1. **Bomb Yield**: The Hiroshima bomb had an estimated yield of 15 kilotons of TNT. Modern nuclear weapons are significantly more powerful, but for this comparison, we'll consider a similar magnitude.

2. **Population Density**: San Francisco has a high population density, which would lead to a large number of casualties and extensive human suffering.

3. **Infrastructure Damage**: The city's infrastructure, including buildings, roads, bridges, utilities, and communication networks, could suffer catastrophic damage, requiring massive reconstruction efforts.

4. **Economic Impact**: Beyond physical destruction, there would be significant economic losses due to the disruption of business activities, loss of productivity, and the costs associated with rebuilding.

5. **Environmental Impact**: Radiation exposure, long-term health effects, and ecological damage would add further layers of complexity and cost in terms of cleanup and recovery.

Given these factors, it's challenging to assign a precise monetary figure to such a hypothetical scenario. However, based on historical data and studies on nuclear weapon impacts, the destruction could be catastrophic, potentially exceeding hundreds
of billions of USD in damages. This estimation would likely need to be refined by experts using detailed models and simulations.
Click to expand...
Hundreds of billions in USD is a big range, but that's single digit to double digit number of bombs, so 3 would be on the low end of that.
 
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9dashline

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Temstar said:
Okay let's do a quick and dirty back of the napkin calculation. We just want to get the correct order of magnitude.

Let's say we treat the entire city of San Francisco as a single asset and we want to figure out what it's worth:
1. San Francisco's GDP was $263.1 billion in 2023
2. At this time average interest for US government debt is 3.32%

NPV of zero growth perpetuity = cash flow / discount rate

Example: suppose you have an asset that pays $10 a year in interest, and interest rate is 10%. So the value of the asset must be $100 right?

$263.1 billion / 0.0332 =7.9 trillion dollars
So that's how much San Francisco is worth in our super simplified calculation. Currently 3 trillion dollars has been wiped out, so 38% of San Francisco has been nuked.

Hiroshima bomb would do this much damage in San Francisco:
View attachment 144487
So I don't know, maybe 3 Hiroshima bombs have already been dropped?
Click to expand...
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1883828519937118663

its so bad, we getting blamed for pearl harbor now too
 
C

Chevalier

Captain
Registered Member
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