It seems the AI winter comes earlier than expected
Miscellaneous News
- Thread starter bd popeye
- Start date
There is still much work to be done. Celebrate successes then get back to the grind. Getting complacent is how the Qing dynasty returns from the dead.For what it's worth I agree broadly with what you are saying. The US is still the center of global finance backed with a bloated, yet incredibly powerful, military. They definitely still have plenty of options on the table yet to be exercised, although most probably will also hurt themselves as well.
I also feel like members here got a bit too drunk on all the winnings China has achieved lately and has descended nearly into r/worldnews level of posting
Right, these things in the end are just nuisance. Costly nuisance, yes, but they can be replaced in a few months. The industrial capacity to build much of what the world needs? That'd take decades.
As for China's response to the Huawei sanctions, it's not a matter of offense vs defense, it's a matter of difference in strategic paradigm. The American paradigm is to weaken the opposition on its way to victory, so from that perspective the opponent's response can either be defensive (i.e. reducing the weakening effects of American actions), or offensive (i.e. take actions to weaken America).
However, China isn't playing that game. China realizes that a great nation such as China or the US cannot be defeated by external actions, nor can victories be achieved through such actions. What such nations do to one another is at best adjunctive, but never decisive. What is decisive is what happens inside each nation, and China used the Huawei sanctions to instead help build itself up into a nation that's self-reliant on the most cutting edge tech such as semiconductor manufacturing and AI.
It's not so different from actual warfare when one side sees the taking of territory as a sign of success when the other side sees the destruction of the enemy army as a sign of success. For now, at least, both sides have doubled down on their respective strategy. The US has relentlessly attacked China with more and more sanctions, probably more tariffs, and probably more forced divestment, decoupling, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if OS bans and/or SWIFT bans will indeed be unveiled during Trump's term.
China's response, IMO, will continue to be neither offensive nor defensive, but with a focus on self-improvement. Divest Tiktok or ban? Take it, and China will use the proceeds to build a better app and make Tiktok the next Google+. Ban Huawei from SWIFT? Do it, and China will use the opportunity to promote CIPS. Ban Xiaomi/Oppo/etc. from Android? China will hasten the adoption of Oxygen and Harmony. Of course, the US will see these actions through their own lens, they'll be seen as offensive or defensive actions, with headlines like "the invasion of Chinese OS" or "Chinese banks scramble to rescue Huawei". However, rest assured, the Chinese objective will only be to strengthen itself because to China, that's the only path to victory.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Just to add that the Eastern Roman Empire didn’t have a near peer competitor superpower as direct adversary seeking to indirectly but actively undermine it at every opportunity.
While China likes to portray itself as the cute and innocent panda bear and its people are genuinely overwhelmingly warm and friendly by nature, it would not have survived remotely as long as it has without a streak of ruthlessness in its collective racial DNA.
America has effectively declared war on China. And not just against the Chinese government as it claims, but an all-of-society holy-race-war seeking the final destruction of the Chinese civilisation and eternal subjugation of the Chinese race. So don’t expect China to merely forgive and forget that if you are unwilling or unable to demonstrate sufficiently sincere remorse and contrition for past crimes when you fail and lose. But the Anglos in general, and Americans in particular, are too prideful and brainwashed to voluntarily apologise and demonstrate true contrition at a level to satisfy China, as such contrition would basically be the post WWII German model, which won’t be possible without the kind of all of society suffering as the German people endured, as well as the systematic and thorough purging of its ruling class via Nuremberg style mass trials and executions. None of which will happen without total military defeat. But a direct military clash is something China would like to avoid if possible.
So I see Americans being unrepentant to the last, and China disdainfully and discretely nudging the bolder that will roll down the hill at them and send over the proverbial precipice with a shrug and a sneer and watching from afar as their nature kicks in and they turn on and destroy each other.
And yet if you look at the writings of Europeans even during that period, you still see condescension among the admiration. Even when they might admire the civil service and the porcelain, they still go on about how they are superior because they are Christian while the others are pagan heathens, or how they have superior cannons (this would have been in late Ming or earlier Qing). So even when they concede there are aspects to admire and learn from, they at the same time affirm their overall superiority.
Kind of how nowadays they might concede the superiority of some physical technology but then still affirm they are superior because they are free (Freedom/Liberty/Democracy taking the place of Christianity as the One True Religion).
Is that the "Chinese semiconductor industry reduced to zero overnight" guy?
Even he is in the process of wumaoization, imagine that...
"After a high seas boarding, Spain's Guardia Civil brought the boxship Baltic Summer into port at Vigo to be searched for drugs - the latest in a series of busts at the quiet port of Vigo, just north of the Portuguese border. This time, however, the authorities came away empty-handed.
Baltic Summer was under way on a voyage from Puerto Bolivar, Ecuador when it was stopped by Spanish authorities and diverted to the harbor at Vigo, with assistance from the U.S. FBI and Homeland Security Investigations. It was not headed to Spain, nor elsewhere in the EU, but to St. Petersburg, Russia. The majority of the crew are Russian and Belarusian, according to Spanish authorities.
Baltic Summer was suspected to be carrying a consignment of drugs, and was thoroughly searched by the Guardia Civil's Central Operative Unit. The examination turned up nothing, according to local media, and the crew and the vessel will be released to continue their onward journey. [...]"
Baltic Summer was under way on a voyage from Puerto Bolivar, Ecuador when it was stopped by Spanish authorities and diverted to the harbor at Vigo, with assistance from the U.S. FBI and Homeland Security Investigations. It was not headed to Spain, nor elsewhere in the EU, but to St. Petersburg, Russia. The majority of the crew are Russian and Belarusian, according to Spanish authorities.
Baltic Summer was suspected to be carrying a consignment of drugs, and was thoroughly searched by the Guardia Civil's Central Operative Unit. The examination turned up nothing, according to local media, and the crew and the vessel will be released to continue their onward journey. [...]"
