Miscellaneous News

quim said:

I agree with you. There is no guarantee that Ukraine will be another South Korea.

But the Polish-Jewish group in power is promising this idea to the Ukrainians and has managed to convince them to fight against Russia successfully.

But speaking of possibilities, the demographics of all countries in Europe and Asia are equally terrible, including in China. Despite this, Poland, Estonia and Lithuania are all growing to become near-developed countries already. China, despite poor demographics, is also growing and competing.

A country no longer needs to have a fertility rate of 6+ to become rich.

After the war, my prediction is that Ukraine will be divided into three parts:

1 - the Donbass strip will remain with Russia.

2 - the center becomes a fake "neutral" zone occupied by UN and NATO peacekeepers, just like Palestine/West Bank and with the male population devastated.

3 - the west is the real Polish-Catholic-Jewish Ukraine, with relatively good demographics and preferential access to US and European politics and investments.

That's why I think Russia should do everything to win while possible and not imitate Iran against Israel. A stalemate is dangerous, a defeat even worse.

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Poland was the crown jewel of the Warsaw Pact outside the USSR, on par in terms of importance with DDR. They were more mechanized than China in WW2. There was nothing wrong with Poland economically, what holds them back is their bottom tier diplomacy where they somehow always manage to piss off much stronger powers.

It isn't about the demographics alone, it is the entire world environment.

In the 1950s to 1980s environment, the rising tide of petroleum exploitation and electronics was a tide raising all boats. The US was a massive economic anchor that pulled up those who clung to them. And both industry and resources were almost all under US or allied control.

Today the world is in an era of resource decline. China is the premier industrial power, Russia is the premier resource power. The west doesn't have the capability to pull Ukraine up. Paper money isn't capability.

nemo said:

The international environment was a lot different. Back then, US accounted for a large share of world production due to the devastation of WW-2. Hence it had the resources to give foreign aid and import preference. Nowadays, both EU and US are in a financial deep hole -- no longer has resources to spare -- at least not without incurring a domestic political price. And their manufacturing has atrophied.

So depending the West for a market or financial aid as per SK is no longer feasible.

Even if it were feasible -- look at the competition: whatever leftover in the middle end by China and ASEAN is extremely limited. At the low end there are hungry African and South Asians economies. Exporting farm produces are blocked by protectionist EU. US has no need for farm produces from Ukraine, as it is struggling to handle the surpluses due to trade war with China.

Ukraine has lost, and is expected to lose, the majority of its industries and mineral production, as they are mostly in the region annexed by Russia.

Somehow, I failed to see any up-points.

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As I said above, there is no guarantee that Ukraine will become a new South Korea, but they are convinced that they can and that is enough for them to fight Russia. We need to work with reality and this is it.

iewgnem said:

Civilization requires long term thinking, you only think of draining NATO and the west, where does the west get their stuff from? German, French, Canadian, South Korean government all collapsed because of money you're "winning" with, meanwhile China can help Russia without a single iota of inflation or increase in bond yields.
Why does Trump want to cut money to Ukraine? What do you think will happen to Israel once you drain US of money? What happens when US goes to war with CHina and can't help you anymore?

You will be tore to shreds, and it will be ISIS who do so, lol

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Me? I'm not Ukrainian.

iewgnem said:

So what does this make Russia who's economy is doing far better than every NATO nation thanks to their alliance with China?

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Right, but even if NATO's economy is cut in half, NATO will still have greater economic output than Russia and China.

NATO also has more land and resources than Russia and China, just add the area of the USA + Canada + Europe. Then if you add satellites like Australia along with naval power...

The West has many problems and has declined culturally and economically since its peak, but they still has many resources and powers.

We cannot underestimate anyone. Arrogance is never a good advisor.

FairAndUnbiased said:

Poland was the crown jewel of the Warsaw Pact outside the USSR, on par in terms of importance with DDR. They were more mechanized than China in WW2. There was nothing wrong with Poland economically, what holds them back is their bottom tier diplomacy where they somehow always manage to piss off much stronger powers.

It isn't about the demographics alone, it is the entire world environment.

In the 1950s to 1980s environment, the rising tide of petroleum exploitation and electronics was a tide raising all boats. The US was a massive economic anchor that pulled up those who clung to them. And both industry and resources were almost all under US or allied control.

Today the world is in an era of resource decline. China is the premier industrial power, Russia is the premier resource power. The west doesn't have the capability to pull Ukraine up. Paper money isn't capability.

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I agree partially here. The world is once again entering an era of protectionism and bloc division. This new protectionism may actually help some countries, some of which could be used as crown jewels as well.

Russia + China united in fact became a great force and always scared the US, just remember Kissinger's effort to keep the USSR and China as enemies.

But the West also still has great resources. I repeat, USA + Canada + Australia + Europe, is also still a great industrial and natural resources force. Although weakened, the West is not finished and may be difficult to defeat. I wouldn't underestimate the West, just as I don't underestimate Russia or China.

quim said:

I agree partially here. The world is once again entering an era of protectionism and bloc division. This new protectionism may actually help some countries, some of which could be used as crown jewels as well.

Russia + China united in fact became a great force and always scared the US, just remember Kissinger's effort to keep the USSR and China as enemies.

But the West also still has great resources. I repeat, USA + Canada + Australia + Europe, is also still a great industrial and natural resources force. Although weakened, the West is not finished and may be difficult to defeat. I wouldn't underestimate the West, just as I don't underestimate Russia or China.

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They are powerful but are they going to put their resources in a weak peripheral state, or are they going consolidate resources at the center?

All evidence of this shows that they're going to concentrate, consolidate and leave the periphery to their own devices.

FairAndUnbiased said:

They are powerful but are they going to put their resources in a weak peripheral state, or are they going consolidate resources at the center?

All evidence of this shows that they're going to concentrate, consolidate and leave the periphery to their own devices.

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This matter is left for the Ukrainians to question and judge. The Polish-Jewish comand of western Ukraine are already gaining enough money and influence, so they believe in the West. If the country survives, it will be their responsibility whether the country will be developed or failed.

But if I were Putin I wouldn't be comfortable with the possibility of a hostile country armed by my biggest enemy sharing the biggest border and right in the most populated area, close to the capital. Again, I have to recognize that Netanyahu knew how to play very well in this situation.

India getting there wake up call

The West doesn’t have more resources because nearly all US allies’ economies are in the crapper and combined together doesn’t help the other. The West needs China, their enemy’s help to keep the world inline with their interests. They can’t do that by themselves with the power and resources they have? China’s indirect help of Russia beats all of the West’s direct help of Ukraine in the war. They blame China for why Ukraine is losing. South Korea and Japan had the US to protect them so they didn’t have to spend all the money for their own defenses during their economic rise. Why didn’t the West carry out their threat to decouple with China and then change verbiage to de-risking? Because it requires all sides to have nothing to do with each other meaning China breaks it off with the West too. The West cuts off its biggest customer for advanced technology because China can’t produce it themselves so no more money to be made there and then China drops the other shoe by not buying what the West is willing to sell to China. The West makes no money from the continent size market of China where selling agricultural products is nearly the same profits as selling precious advanced technology. That’s why the West dropped decoupling because they thought it was one-sided only in their favor. De-risking makes it okay to still sell to China but it doesn’t make a difference for China where they’re going to start buying from the West what they’re willing to sell because of words. So who’s the one that actually has more power and resources to use against the other? What about all the countries not the West that have the strategic resources the West needs? Are they rich and wealthy just because they have them? That’s why China occupies the minds of the West rent free. They need to control what China has to have all that power they don’t have to control for themselves.

I think this discussion on Ukraine's going on a little long, so something positive for a change. The relaxing of visa rules already showing results.

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