Again, “nope” means you misinterpreted what “external debt” means.
Again, you thought that a 168% increase is less than doubling and that the Chinese population and economy were only 10% of the global pie so as the least educated and mathematically literate person here, you're not qualified to "nope" anybody else.
I didn’t “boast”, I simply stated a statistic that 2/3rds of treasuries are held by US investors, which largely matched all fixed income products (itself an entirely neutral term; who owns treasuries itself is mostly a statistical artifact, irrelevant for nearly everything). ~$53 trillion in long term fixed income products outstanding (
), obviously more short-term fixed income (commercial paper, tbills) and non-listed fixed income (bank loans) which would be a ~300% of gdp face value.
Seems like you were happy with US-owned debt good and high right here:
China can do debt consolidation for most of its debt without an issue. America can't do it for the foreign debt and doing it for the domestic debt would be difficult too. Foreign debt is actually not that high percentage wise. My stats could be off but I think US civilians and corporations...
www.sinodefenceforum.com
Everyone, including China recognizes that foreign ownership of debt is desirable,
Debt is desireable?? At best, you can argue that a type of debt is the least harmful but good? LOL I guess Japan, with over 250% external debt to gdp, must be the best, eh? LOL Everybody's envious of Japan's economy, right?
hence why China also implemented the Bond Connect, so international investors could buy Chinese bonds
When purchased, they bring in income. Afterwards, they are liabilities. Whole package considered with China's economy and tech growing faster than the US, that the US also has higher external debt, which are liabilities once sold, it is much better to have less external debt. In other words, you can't have your cake and eat it too. The ability to sell bonds is an advantage; debt owed on the ones sold are now disadvantages.
I never claimed America has lower external debt.
You claimed correctly and gleefully, at seigecrossbow's post, that most of America's debt is held internally. But you didn't know that China's is much more so, but that's advanced knowledge for someone who thought that China has like 800M people and a GDP of $10T, which is 10% of the global share.
I claimed that public debt in the U.S. is on a more sustainable path than public debt in China. External debt is of all debt securities, not just the public sector.
That's a stupid thing to claim, because it extrapolates far into the future. America's is over 120% of GDP while China's is over 80% of GDP. It was 2009 last time America's was so low. You cannot assume that the "path" continues indefinitely and without purposeful adjustment.
Indeed. Foreigners being willing and capable of buying corporate bonds, MBS, and the like is a good thing. Foreigners buying treasuries is a good thing. The thing that matters is the sustainability of debt payments; not their ownership per se. Foreign claims on U.S. assets in general, are about the trade deficits which themselves are about savings rates (but that foreigners chose to invest in risk assets instead of stashing it all in a FRBNY account itself shows their confidence in the U.S. and contributes to efficient capital allocation, capital deepening, liquidity, and improves competition)
That is the ability to sell external debt, generating a lifeline and buffer from poor management, not the ownership of external debt after it is sold. Like I said, owning external debt is a liability, and that is what is left over after the proceeds of the sale are injected into the US economy. After said injections, the US still can't compete with China, and now, it has a bag of external debt that it must repay. That bag itself is not not a good thing.
The U.S. isn’t collapsing since Congress will simply fix social security and Medicare proceeding the first failed treasury auction.
I didn't say you were collapsing; I said with your debt levels, you will collapse ahead of us.
A Million Simulations Shows US Debt Danger
China’s national debt is also increasing faster than the U.S.’ national debt: that is the definition of more unsustainable.
No, that is an incorrect definition in an actual world with live people making direction-changing adjustments and decisions. An Olympian with 1% body fat celebrates his gold medal with a 10,000 Calorie meal at MacDonald's then goes to sleep; a fat man eats a 9,000 Calorie meal at MacDonalds then goes for a walk. The latter situation is not more sustainable in real life even if it's the Olympian's retiring meal because he has a much greater buffer to make adjustments before he becomes worse than the fat man. It is only more sustainable in an imaginary world where they are both trapped to repeat what happened that day every day with no ability to change.
Yes, after Fed rate hikes that moved the policy rate from 0% to 5% which is now headed back to 0%
So basically, yes, you are imagining a 5 year future attempting to ignore the situation now.
US-China relations really collapsed in 2020. What happened to debt and equity returns in 2020? Hmm….. Ever since US-China relations really veered off track in 2018, equity returns have been fabulous. They aren’t strongly determinative.
Psssshtt, you call that a collapse?? You poor country bumpkin, you aint' seen nothin' yet. We were talking about a situation where China dumps all its US debt overnight and here you are talking about some bullshit in 2020. Take your ADHD meds and get on topic.
That is entirely rank speculation unsupported by any evidence whatsoever other than gossip. Plus, it makes no sense she would need China to buy US treasuries since
1) China’s pile of USD would simply be deposited in a FRB/NY correspondent account and the New York Fed can buy treasuries with that
2) U.S. treasury auctions with primary dealers are regularly 2x oversubscribed, even when no primary dealer is a Chinese financial.
3) the same regular buyers of the long end of the yield curve - life insurers and pension funds - are now more willing to buy treasuries given the increasing yields (and even in 2020 when treasuries were yielding nothing, they were buying them hand over fist).
LOLOL This is not good enough evidence for you? The dude who posts random Twitter shots claiming that China had 0 startups this year is talking about other people's evidence being of poor quality? LOL
"“From our or Yellen’s official statements, it is not difficult to see that the two sides mainly ‘exchanged views’ this time, and neither side got what they wanted. The US did not agree to lift the sanctions, and China did not agree to buy US debt,” the article says."
You need to see a pic of Yellen bowing and begging with a suitcase of bonds or something? Well... they're not phsyical so there's no suitcase... but the first one I'll give ya. And no, they didn't video-loop a bow 3 times; those were all her in real life.