Forget about the Xinjiang cotton's saga or other "human rights" crappy pretexts, which are just small subsets of the ongoing struggles between the two sides, look at the much bigger picture involving Russia and other actors for years to come!
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Biden's last throw of geopolitical dice
By Alasdair Macleod - 25 March 2021
IN A CONTINUING Cold War, America is already on the back foot. We have yet to see how long it will be before the Biden administration realises its few victories will be unaffordably Pyrrhic, and by merely not responding to American provocation the Chinese/Russian partnership will emerge as the victors.
HALFORD MACKINDER’S CENTURY-OLD VISION of a Eurasian superstate, based between the Volga and the Yangtze Rivers, is becoming reality. Commentators usually fail to understand why; it is not due to military superiority, but down to simple economics. While the US economy suffers a post-lockdown inflationary outcome and an existential crisis for the dollar, China’s economy will boom on the back of increasing domestic consumption [Dual-Circulation Economy], which is an official government objective; and increasing exports, the consequence of America’s stimulation of consumer demand and a soaring budget deficit.
THE CHINESE-RUSSIAN PARTNERSHIP already dominates or controls MACKINDER’S WORLD ISLAND, defined as Eurasia and all Africa. South-east Asian nations notionally in the US’s sphere of influence are firmly tied to the partnership’s economy, and the Overland and Sea Silk Roads similarly bind the EU and the Indian and Western Pacific Oceans’ states respectively.
This article SUMMARISES the background to the geopolitical situation facing the Biden administration before concluding that in the current Cold War against the COMBINED POWER of Russia and China, America will fail in its political objectives, not through lack of military power, but due to economic forces.
CONCLUSIONS
The Biden presidency faces significant challenges in the ongoing Cold War and America is unlikely to retain its hegemonic status. During Trump’s presidency, attempts to curtail China’s trade and technological development did not succeed, and has only emboldened both China and Russia to stand firm and as much as possible to do without America and its dollar.
Their senior advisors are, or should be, acutely aware of the DEBT and INFLATION TRAPS facing the US and also the EU.
Following the Fed’s policies of accelerated monetary expansion announced last March [2020], China increased her purchases of COMMODITIES AND RAW MATERIALS, in effect SIGNALLING she prefers them to dollar liquidity. As a policy, it is likely to be extended further, given China’s existing stockpile of dollars and dollar-denominated debt. Her dilemma is not just the fragile state of the US economy, but that of the EU which on any dispassionate analysis is a state failing economically and politically as well. China will not want to be blamed for triggering a series of events which will get everyone reaching out for their forgotten copy of Friedrich Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom.
As events take their course, the risk of a dollar collapse and a matching crisis in the euro, though for different reasons, increases. For MACKINDER’S HEARTLAND THEORY to be proved and for the Russian and Chinese partnership to be in control of it, a mega-crisis facing the profligate money-printers must happen. All history and a priori economic theory confirm it will happen. The SCO’s Plan B will be a continuance of Plan A, hatched out of the Shanghai Five Group, making the WORLD ISLAND a self-contained unit not dependent on the peripherals — principally, the five eyes. For money, they must give up western ways with unbacked state currencies. Between them they have enough state-owned declared and undeclared gold to back the yuan, and the rouble. Give these two currencies free convertibility into gold, and they will be accepted everywhere, so their old Cold War enemies can trade their way back to prosperity.
The US has, or says it has, enough gold to put a failing dollar back on a gold standard, but for it to be credible it must radically cut spending, its geopolitical ambitions, and return its budget into balance.
WITH LUCK, THAT IS HOW THE NEW COLD WAR ENDS.
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